FXUS64 KHGX 191831
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
131 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will persist, along
  side a 30 to 55 percent chance of patchy fog in the nighttime 
  and early mornings. 

- A strengthening mid to upper level ridge will bring even hotter
  conditions Friday through Sunday with temperatures potentially
  reaching record-breaking values (including the first 90-degree 
  days of the year at some locations).


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Dry conditions will persist through the weekend and well into 
next week, as the region remains under the influence of a potent 
592-596 dam mid to upper level ridge centered over the 
southwestern CONUS/Four Corners area. At the surface, the 
proximity of high pressure to our east will maintain a steady, 
warm southerly flow. As we progress into the weekend, this ridge 
will expand eastward, further increasing large-scale subsidence 
across the local area. Confidence is moderate to high for an 
unseasonably hot weekend. Model guidance remains consistent, 
showing 850 mb temperatures exceeding the 99.7th percentile of 
climatology for Friday into Sunday. This setup will likely push 
surface temperatures near or above record-breaking values for this
time of year. In fact, some locations may see the first 90-degree
day of the year. Another weather feature we cannot forget is fog.
Light winds with a slight uptick in low-level moisture may be 
enough to develop patchy to areas of fog early in the mornings 
(Thursday into Sunday at least). Model guidance (HREF and REFS) 
shows probabilities of any fog of 30 to 55 percent each morning. 

The upper-level pattern begins to shift early next week as the ridge 
flattens. This will allow a weak cold front to sag southward; 
however current indications suggest this front will either stall or 
wash out entirely over the region. Therefore, we do not anticipate 
significant impacts from this FROPA. 

Given the persistent southerly surface flow and the lingering 
influence of the ridge aloft, above-normal temperatures are expected 
to continue through next week. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Lows 
in the 60s. 

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Prevailing VFR conditions at all terminals and this will persist 
through today. Some patchy fog remains possible during the 
nighttime tonight and early morning hours Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Dry weather with light to occasionally moderate onshore winds (S 
to SSE) and low seas will be the main weather features over the 
next seven days. Seas will slightly build up to 4 ft through the 
weekend, but overall, expect seas ranging from 2 to 3 ft. Little 
to no rain is expected. Patchy fog will be possible overnight into
the early mornings. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  84  55  88  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Houston (IAH)			  83  60  86  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)			  74  66  75  66 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Lisney
MARINE...JM