FXUS64 KHGX 302343 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 543 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold Weather Advisories for tonight and (Hard) Freeze Watches for Saturday night have been posted. - Hazardous marine conditions through most of the weekend with elevated winds/seas along with low water levels. - A gradual warm up early next week along with some rain chances returning to the forecast by Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1201 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026 Another day, another 1040+ mb surface high pressure system surging south down the plains. The steepening gradient as the high builds south is bringing gusty, chilly, northerly winds. The resulting CAA underneath a subtropical Pacific fed cloud deck aloft has brought a relatively gray (with some filtered sun) and chilly day. Midday temperatures are still in the 40s in many locations, though we suspect most locations to at least attempt to breach the 50 degree mark. The high will continue building southward, sending a reinforcing shot of arctic air into the region. One could call this a good old fashion blue norther. Winds should initially decrease this evening, before increasing again late overnight as temperatures drop into the 20s and 30s. A cold weather advisory has been issued during the morning hours on Saturday for much of the region due to the potential for 15 to 25 degree wind chills (closer to 15 northern counties, closer to 25 southern counties). Saturday is expected to be sunnier. But don't let the bright Texas sunshine fool you. Afternoon temperatures are only expected to warm into the 40s. And with high pressure, clear skies, and dry air in place, expect efficient radiational cooling Saturday night. There is a very high risk for another hard freeze for areas away from the coast and outside Houston's urban heat island Saturday night into Sunday morning. Couldn't rule out some rural cold spots dropping into the teens! But bright sunshine should allow for a decent temperature recovery by afternoon, with most spots reaching the low 50s. Our mid/upper pattern has been trough dominate for the last couple of weeks. But modest ridging will take the stage on Monday and Tuesday. In addition, southeast flow will be introduced in the low-levels, ushering in a milder and more moist environment. I think we'll have one more chilly morning on Monday. But Monday and Tuesday afternoon could both make a run for the 70 degree mark (more likely on Tuesday). Overnight lows will also warm into the 40s and 50s. A tad warmer than normal for a change! We'll also transition into a spilt flow pattern, featuring a strengthening subtropical jet over Texas and northern Mexico. The aforementioned ridging will be short-lived, with the polar jet dipping southward again, bringing a nice lobe of vorticity and lift down into Texas on Tuesday into Wednesday. With moist SE low-level flow and a subtropical jet in place, expect an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday into early Wednesday. The best chance of showers and storms will be ahead of a southward progressing cold front. This time, the air behind the front does not appear to be THAT cold. Below average? Sure. But a widespread freeze isn't in the forecast at this time. Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 541 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026 VFR at all sites. Winds currently light out of the north. Overnight expect winds to increase to 10-15 kts with gusts to around 25 kts. This will continue through much of the day Saturday before winds decrease around the end of the TAF period. High clouds will clear out overnight with clear skies across the southern terminals tomorrow. A few high clouds left over further north. Bailey && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026 Strong northerly winds, choppy to rough bay waters, and building Gulf seas will continue through Saturday. Winds in the bays and the very nearshore Gulf should decrease this afternoon and evening, before increasing again late tonight into tomorrow morning. Cold wind chills in the 20s can be expected along the coast by tomorrow morning. Seas offshore should generally be 6-8 feet through Saturday. However, seas may occasionally approach 10 feet at times, especially farther offshore. Winds decrease and seas diminish late Saturday into Sunday. Expect those winds to veer east then southeast on Sunday, remaining southeast through Tuesday. This will push higher dew points northward towards the recently chilled Upper Texas Waters. We'll have to monitor this for potential patchy sea fog Monday night through Tuesday night. However, dew points may not become high enough for fog. But it's still worth monitoring. A cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday. Gusty northerly winds are likely in the front's wake. Be advised that low water levels will continue through the weekend and possibly into Monday. Hazardous marine navigation in shallower areas during low tide are likely. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 28 42 23 54 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 34 45 25 53 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 38 46 34 50 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Saturday for TXZ163- 164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338. Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>237-300. GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Saturday for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ350-355-370- 375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...Bailey MARINE...Self