FXUS64 KHGX 261032 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 532 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot weather with low humidity today. A gradual increase in humidity begins late this evening. - Unsettled weather next week with increasing rain and storm chances, peaking from Wednesday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1147 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 In the near term, a comfortable night is unfolding as surface dew points remain in the 50s and low 70s while temperatures drop into the mid 60s and low 70s. So, enjoy the dry and comfortable early Saturday morning. Temperatures will gradually warm up through the day with highs reaching the low to mid 90s this afternoon. It will be hot but still with low humidity. Forecast soundings show a gradual increase in low to mid level moisture starting later today and continuing through the remainder of the forecast period. With a little more moisture in the area, expect a hot and slightly more humid Sunday with isolated diurnally- driven showers and storms. This weather pattern looks to remain at least through Tuesday with isolated to scattered activity mainly in the afternoon with the seabreeze. After Tuesday, the weather pattern changes with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances, peaking from Wednesday into the weekend. We'll be receiving moisture from different areas. Gulf moisture will kick- in as persistent southeasterly flow continues. At the same time deep Pacific moisture will filter over the Plains as a deepening upper- lvl trough moves over the western CONUS and merges with the remnants of Polo. Confidence in a wetter pattern toward mid-late week continues to increase; however, confidence on timing, rain coverage, and rainfall amounts remains still low. Latest Global model runs suggest an uptick in moisture with PWATs at or above the climatological maximum for late September. However, most of them now keep the FROPA to our west. The GFS and its ensemble members continue to be the most progressive and aggressive solutions for our region, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rain through the end of the week. The ECMWF continues to be less aggressive and keeps the bulk of the QPF to our north/west. Overall, the probability of getting rainfall amounts greater than 1 inch is around 20 to 35 % for Wednesday, 50 to 60% for Thursday, and 30 to 40% on Friday. The probability of rain greater than 2 inches is slightly lower: 20-25% Wed, 30-45% Thurs, and 15 to 25% Fri. Given the spread in models regarding the evolution of this trough, and the eventual QPF, the main takeaway at the moment is to focus on impacts and not total amounts. Prepare for periods of showers and thunderstorms, mainly Wednesday into Friday. Finer details will be provided as confidence increases. JM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 528 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VFR conditions continue today and tonight for the vast majority of the area. Exception, albeit brief, would be around some of the coastal terminals who might see an isolated shower and MVFR ceiling at times this morning. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1147 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Benign marine conditions will continue with light onshore winds and seas at least through early next week. Northeast to east winds will gradually shift to the southeast this weekend and will persist through most of the upcoming week. An isolated shower or storm will be possible through the weekend, but minimal impact is anticipated. Unsettled weather returns to the Upper TX coast heading into mid- week. Look for periods of rain and thunderstorms, along with elevated winds and building seas, likely reaching Advisory levels. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 94 70 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 92 74 94 75 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 88 81 89 82 / 20 10 20 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...47 MARINE...JM