FXUS64 KHGX 011854 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 154 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot Weather continues with peak heat index values reaching 100- 110F (38-43C). Heat safety should still be practiced, especially on July 4th. - Daily rain chances. Light streamer showers possible in the morning, then scatters/isolated storms during the afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026 Current weather pattern remains a persistence forecast with little in the way of changes. Mid-upper level ridging is still situated across the Tennessee-Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic region today and Thursday. Midlevel heights within this ridge peak around 596-597 dam, around the 99th-100th percentile overtop the aforementioned area. Still, SE Texas is on the southwestern peripheral of this ridge, so heights are only around 590-593 dam, which is only around the ~75th percentile for this time of the year. Still, it's enough to maintain summer heat throughout the short term. On Friday, this ridge will shift eastward and weaken, bleeding into the broader subtropical high to the south over the weekend. Overall this still won't chance much for SE Texas as midlevel ridge heights will stay around 590-593 dam throughout the forecast period. This ridging with persistent onshore winds & WAA will keep hot summer weather in place throughout the forecast. Forecast soundings aren't showing any kind of meaningful cap from the subsidence aloft, thus short & long range models are showing modest afternoon mixing with respect to dewpoints. This should help curb heat indices, though again this is still a SE Texas summer, so conditions will still be hot. Rain chances are naturally low, though not zero, as there are several mechanics that may bring some rain these next several days. Weak impulses are progged to round the bottom of the aforementioned ridge aloft, which could bring a few showers and storms at times, at least over the next day or so. We can see some of this convection on radar/satellite right now, currently over the Louisiana coastline and moving westward towards our area. Streamer showers could also pop up at times during the morning in areas over the Gulf/along the coast. Without capping and light winds underneath this ridge, we could see some popup showers/thunderstorms, especially with any seabreeze activity. Low level lapse rates are also very steep, around 8-9 Deg C/km in the lowest 3 km, thus any storms that develop could produce a modest downburst at least. Bottom line, expect hot weather daily with highs in the 90s. Dewpoints in the afternoon should range from the upper 60s to mid 70s inland, upper 70s along the coast/Gulf. This will result in triple digit heat indices ranging from 100-110F (38-43C). WBGT values indicate that heat stress on the human body will be high, possibly extreme in spots, in the afternoon. There will be daily chances of rain, possibly as light streamer showers over the Gulf/Coast in the morning and maybe some pop-up showers/storms in the afternoon, especially along the sea breeze. Though, models are signaling drier weather for the July 4th holiday. With respect to non-meteorological factors, this Independence day falls on a weekend, and is the Semiquincentennial for the founding of the United States of America. A substantial amount of the population will be spending time outdoors to partake in these celebrations, likely more than a typical holiday, thus more cases of heat illness could emerge as a result. We'll be keeping a close eye on the Temps/Heat Index, but regardless heat safety should be practiced and greatly emphasized. Heat is the #1 weather-related killer in the U.S. each year, and often people greatly underestimate it's danger. If you plan to spend the day outdoors, make sure you wear light cloths, apply sunscreen and stay hydrated by drinking plenty of water. 03 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026 VFR is prevailing at all TAF sites this morning, with just a few patchy stratus clouds streaming in from the Gulf. Brief/intermittent MVFR ceilings remain possible, especially at KCLL, KUTS, KCXO, and KDWH through about 13-15Z before clouds lift to VFR levels. Isolated convection may develop this afternoon, generally north of I-10, but probabilities are too low to include in TAFs at this time. Southeast winds will persist and should remain relatively light through the forecast period, sustained around 10 knots or less by this afternoon. Mid/high level clouds increase late this afternoon and evening, which may or may not limit stratus development overnight tonight. Will keep VFR prevailing. && .MARINE... Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026 Light S/SE winds around 10 knots and calm seas of 1 to 3 feet are expected throughout the next several days. Light streamer showers could develop over the Gulf waters each morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop along the sea breeze in the afternoon near the coastline and bays. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 93 76 95 / 20 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 78 93 77 94 / 20 40 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 82 89 82 89 / 20 30 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Mejia MARINE...03