FXUS64 KHGX 111757 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1157 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will push through tonight/Thursday morning leading to drier weather for the remainder of the work week. - Rain chances return late this weekend as a couple of upper level disturbances push into the region. - Another cold front pushes through by Monday morning bringing another period of cooler, drier weather. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1157 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 It's been quite the dreary day so far with low-level clouds and drizzle/light rain through the morning. I know the first question y'all have is will this last all day. Well the answer is both yes and no, but it depends on where you are. A coastal surface trough remains somewhat nearby along with lingering moisture [PW values just below the 75th percentile (~1.31")] and lingering PVA from the tail-end of an upper level trough. As the coastal trough continues to gradually push offshore, northern areas will begin to see more and more peeks of sunshine. For those of near and south of I-10, we're expecting the dreary conditions to last throughout the day...but there is good news on the horizon! Before we get to that though, I should mention that because of the cloud cover persisting for the previously mentioned areas...I lowered the high temperatures for today to reflect the low 70s. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if some areas in the coastal counties stay in the 60s. For the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods, the peeks of sunshine will help y'all reach the mid 70s. As far as rain goes, I would be surprised if we saw anything more than light rain/drizzle for the rest of the day. Now as the previously mentioned upper level trough (that's centered mostly over the northeastern CONUS) dips a little further southwestward overnight, it'll push a cold front through Southeast Texas early Thursday morning. This'll be a dry frontal passage, but there will be some rain chances off the coast though. Much drier air filters in behind this front with PW values dropping to near the 25th percentile (~0.58") by Thursday afternoon...so yep the sun will come out tomorrow. Tomorrow, tomorrow! High temperatures tomorrow will top out in the low to mid 70s, then we'll drop into the 40s/50s Thursday night. Friday will essentially be a copy and paste forecast, but there are some synoptic changes worth mentioning. Going into Friday, a ridge axis will begin sliding in from the west. This time around, we're not going to see a subsequent warming trend though as 850mb temperatures hold steady thanks to an 850mb high overhead. Going into Saturday afternoon/evening is when things become a bit interesting. The first of two upper level disturbances will push into the area from the west leading to an increase in rain chances mainly for areas west of I-45...it's still early and that may change. I'll go ahead and mention here that the GFS remains the outlier showing a rather robust MCS Saturday evening...we'll monitor trends on that one. WPC has outlined most of the area in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Saturday. The next upper level disturbance pushes through the Four Corners region on Saturday afternoon leading to surface low development near the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. This is important to note because this places us in the warm sector as this low develops further and pushes southeastward. There may be an axis of instability, but quite a bit of uncertainty remains this far out. A cold front will be associated with this one though, so showers/storms will be possible ahead of and along the frontal boundary. WPC has outlined all of Southeast Texas in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Sunday. It's a little early to focus on exact totals, but I did take a look at some probabilities! There is a 20-30% probability of rainfall amounts over 2" for most of the area Saturday/Sunday (24 hr period). For 3+", the probability is around 10% along the coast. While the probability is low, it is statistically notable so we'll continue to monitor trends. The cold front looks to push through Sunday night/Monday morning. Following that front, we're expecting another period of cooler and drier conditions that extends into at least the middle of next week. Batiste && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1157 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 Low cigs/vis along and south of I-10 will generally clear out to VFR conditions throughout this afternoon and evening, before sub-VFR conditions return during the overnight hours (05Z to 09Z) as moisture surges ahead of a cold front passage. Low ceilings and fog will lead to MVFR conditions for KCXO and TAF sites south of it, with KSGR likely dropping to LIFR as thicker fog develops further west of I-45. Cigs/vis below MVFR are possible for TAF sites beyond KSGR, but model confidence is too low to include them currently. VFR conditions return by 12Z to 14Z tomorrow as dry, northerly winds follow the cold front passage. Looking further north, KUTS and KCLL will maintain VFR conditions throughout this TAF cycle. Winds through tomorrow morning will be calm and VRB, with winds increasing out of the N at 5-10 kts tomorrow morning. JMG && .MARINE... Issued at 1157 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026 Light to moderate east-northeasterly winds are currently ongoing as a surface coastal trough remains over the Gulf waters albeit with only rain showers. Winds will increase and transition to northeasterly on Thursday morning following the passage of a cold front. This will likely lead to a period of Caution Flags that extends into Thursday evening. Benign marine conditions will follow through Friday night as winds gradually become southeasterly by Saturday morning. A tightening pressure gradient will lead to strengthening onshore flow which will likely necessitate a period of Small Craft Advisories. These elevated winds and seas extend into early next week as a cold front pushes offshore Sunday night/Monday morning. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are also expected Saturday through early next week. We'll also need to monitor water levels during times of high tide late in the weekend as model guidance is already hinting at peaks above 3.0 ft MLLW. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 55 76 52 75 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 60 75 53 74 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 65 74 63 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...JMG MARINE...Batiste