FXUS64 KHGX 201723 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1223 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Offshore areas experiencing hazardous winds/seas and scattered showers/storms today. Small Craft Advisory in effect in the offshore Gulf through tonight. - Warm and dry conditions expected through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1138 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026 Mid/upper ridging will continue to rule the weather across Texas, keeping conditions dry and generally warmer than normal. We do have a sfc trough in the Gulf, helping to enhance Gulf winds and seas. We are also noticing some showers and thunderstorms offshore as well. These conditions should taper as the system pushes into S TX and MX over the next day or two. None of the eventful weather offshore is expected to push inland (though we couldn't rule out a few showers reaching Matagorda Bay later today). Typical late October afternoon temperatures average in the upper 70s to around 80, with overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s. We may end up averaging close to normal for overnight lows through early next week, especially away from the urban heat island. But daytime highs should average in the low/mid 80s, with a few hot spots making a run for the upper 80s on some days. At least humidity should remain low, with dry conditions reining supreme. Any pattern changes on the horizon? Long range ensembles suggest an increasingly more robust subtropical jet by the end of October or beginning of November. This would tend to shift the pattern in a wetter direction. It is awfully dry out there, especially in our coastal zones. So a more El Nino-like pattern with an active subtropical jet could end up being welcomed news. The 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is leaning towards a higher chance of wetter than normal conditions. Time will tell. Self && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1138 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026 |FR conditions prevail across the entire TAF cycle for the region. A continuing NE breeze between 5-10kts persists before reducing to LGT and VRB overnight. A brief period of low-end VFR CIGS around LBX is currently anticipated to begin overnight and last through the sunrise hrs. Tomorrow is projected to look like today with VFR conditions and a 5-10kt NE breeze. CMW && .MARINE... Issued at 1138 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026 A trough in the Gulf will enhance winds and seas in our Gulf waters through tonight, with hazardous offshore seas possibly lingering into Wednesday morning. There is a Small Craft Advisory in effect for our offshore zones through tonight, while Caution Flags have been issued for the nearshore waters and beaches. The trough is also bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms well offshore as well. These conditions should improve as the system moves into South Texas and Mexico. Light to moderate northeast flow is expected through Friday, followed by shift to moderate east to southeast flow by the weekend. It is possible that we may need Small Craft Advisories again by Sunday, especially over the Gulf. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 56 82 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 63 84 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 70 80 68 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for GMZ350-355. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...CMW MARINE...Self