FXUS64 KHGX 231131 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 631 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Upper Texas coast and adjacent waters through early Friday. Tropical Storm Bertha is forecast to weaken as it approaches southeast Texas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. - Hazardous heat is possible today across the Brazos Valley and up through the Piney Woods where heat index values could reach 110 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Tropical Storm Bertha will make its approach to the Upper Texas Coast late this afternoon into this evening. However, this system will be rather lopsided with most of the showers and storms displaced to the south of its center. This system will be weakening on approach as it battles the dry air, wind shear, and land interaction with Louisiana. A tropical Storm Warning is in effect from coastal Brazoria County up to Chambers County. This is where the highest possibility of gusts of 40-45 mph resides, mostly in any rain bands. Other than this, significant impacts are not expected. Rainfall totals will be light enough to preclude a threat of flash flooding. Probability of 2 inches of rain or more is low, and mainly focused on the coast south of Galveston. Some minor coastal flooding is possible near times of high tide from the Bolivar Peninsula eastward where tides may run a couple feet above normal. There is also a high risk of rip currents today along area beaches. The timing of impacts is mostly this afternoon into this evening as the system quickly weakens upon moving onshore. Outside of the tropical impacts, it'll be another hot day with highs in the mid to upper 90s north of I-10 and low 90s south. The extra humidity in place will make it feel more like 105-110, and a Heat Advisory has been issued for the Brazos Valley and up into the Piney Woods. Beyond Thursday, ridging resumes its hold across the central and western US, keeping us in a hot, dry pattern through early next week. A few residual showers are possible Friday, but overall rain chances dwindle to near 10% or less. We may have more hazardous heat heading into the weekend, but forecast heat index values are just below advisory levels right now. But we'll monitor those trends over the coming days. Young && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 615 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 Primary aviation issue today will be increasing winds in association with approaching TS Bertha. Inland, speeds should gradually increase into the 13-20kt range as the day progresses with some gusts to around 30kt a possibility. Along the immediate coast and offshore they'll probably be about 10kt higher. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this afternoon, with highest probabilities along and south of I-10...substantially lower as one goes further inland. As Bertha tracks westward and inland this evening, both rain chances and wind speeds should diminish. Forecast soundings do however show the potential for some MVFR ceilings across filling in across portions of the area. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Light to moderate west to southwest winds and seas around 2 to 3 ft continue this evening. Influence from Bertha will begin Thursday as winds increase to around 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. Seas will increase to around 4 to 9 feet. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Galveston Bay and the waters off of Galveston Bay and Small Craft Advisories are in effect for Matagorda Bay and adjacent waters through Friday morning. Conditions will improve going into Friday with winds light to moderate out of the south to southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 96 78 94 76 / 0 20 20 0 Houston (IAH) 94 79 94 78 / 50 40 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 90 83 90 83 / 90 40 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ214-337-338-437>439. Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176-177-195>199-210>212-226-235-335. Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for TXZ436. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for GMZ330-350. Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ335-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Young AVIATION...47 MARINE...Cotto