FXUS64 KHGX 171109 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 609 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid through the end of the week with only a few/spotty showers. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front Saturday afternoon and evening. Localized downpours will be possible, which could result in instances of minor flooding in urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas. - Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into early next week. - Hazardous Marine Conditions: Moderate to strong northeasterly winds and building seas are expected Saturday night through Sunday evening following the passage of the cold front. Gusts to gale will be possible. - There will be a moderate to high risk of strong rip currents along all Gulf- facing beaches through at least the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1114 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 More of the same is expected through Friday with continued warm and humid conditions thanks to southerly flow at the surface and southwesterly flow aloft. There will be bit of a tightening of the pressure gradient over us on Friday as we get sandwiched between high pressure over the eastern Gulf and a low pressure system exiting into the Central Plains to our northwest. This will lead to some gustier winds during the afternoon and evening hours, with gusts to 20-25mph possible. High temperatures continue to be in the mid to upper 80s for most of the region on Friday with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s Friday night. The aforementioned low pressure system moving into the Central Plains on Friday will continue to push eastward on Saturday with its associated cold front moving through SE Texas Saturday afternoon/evening. We may begin to see light streamer showers as early as Saturday morning, but then expecting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of an along the cold front. Moisture is expected to surge to around 1.7-1.9" ahead of the cold front, so localized downpours will be possible with any thunderstorms that develop. Minor urban and small stream flooding may occur if these thunderstorms develop over an area of poor drainage. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for areas along and north of I-10. Lingering moisture behind the front may lead to isolated showers sticking around the coast into Sunday morning. The FROPA will also usher in breezy northerly winds (gusts to 20-25mph in land, up to 30mph at the coast) Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. Cooler weather is expected Sunday through Monday with daytime highs in the low 70s and overnight lows in the 50s. Southerly flow returns by Monday night leading to a gradual increase in temperatures through the remainder of the week: highs in the mid to upper 70s on Tuesday, low 80s on Wednesday, and possibly mid-80s by next Thursday. Rain chances do return late Monday into Tuesday, and again Wednesday into Thursday, as a series weak disturbance moves across the Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast. Fowler && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026 MVFR cigs prevail at most sites except IAH and HOU this morning, though some brief reductions to MVFR are possible at these sites over the next couple hours. Cigs should rise to VFR at all terminals late this morning. Gusty SSE winds will develop this afternoon with gusts around 25 kt expected. Winds will subside this evening with MVFR cigs returning overnight. For IAH, SHRA will begin to develop late Saturday morning, but any TS will hold off until after 18z Saturday. Young && .MARINE... Issued at 1114 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Small craft should continue to exercise caution as moderate south-southeasterly winds (15-20kt) and 3-5ft seas persist through Friday night. A tightening pressure gradient across the region may lead to gusts to 25kt Friday afternoon/evening, and if these gusts are frequent enough then a Small Craft Advisory may be issued. A decrease in the winds is expected Saturday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of and along the cold front's passage. It is expected to push through the coastal waters Saturday evening into Saturday night ushering in strong north to northeasterly winds that will persist into late Sunday. Sustained winds of 20-30kt are expected with gusts to 35kt possible, which will lead to building seas of 7-10ft seas. Small Craft Advisories will be likely Saturday night into Sunday evening, but a Gale conditions cannot be ruled out. Winds gradually lower and veer through Monday with southeasterly flow expected by Monday night. The persistent onshore winds will lead to increased wave run-up and elevated tides through Saturday (high tides running around 3-3.3ft above MLLW). There will also be a moderate to high risk of strong rip currents along Gulf-facing beaches. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 87 68 75 51 / 0 0 60 70 Houston (IAH) 86 71 82 56 / 10 0 50 80 Galveston (GLS) 79 73 78 62 / 10 0 30 70 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fowler AVIATION...Young MARINE...Fowler