FXUS64 KHGX 122347 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 647 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated risk of rip currents remains through at least midweek. - Gradual warming trend for most of the work week with daily chances for showers/storms. - A cold front is expected to push through towards the end of the work week bringing cooler, drier conditions to the region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026 Ridging overtop the region and onshore winds at the surface should facilitate WAA/moisture advection, keeping above normal temperatures in place throughout much of the work week. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s/90s with lows in the 70s/lower 80s. Scatted showers and thunderstorms will be possible daily, mainly during the afternoon early this week. A slot of drier air is poised to push in from the east around mid week, resulting in a downturn in rain chances through Thursday. This drier air should also improve overnight cooling, causing inland lows to drop into the mid/upper 60s in spots. During the day on Thursday, a shortwave over the Central Plains will begin to merge with a trough over Manitoba/Ontario, deepening into a longwave trough as it dig eastward. This system is poised to send a cold front towards southeast Texas, fairly substantial in strength, more akin to what you would expect during the fall. Long range ensembles have done a pretty good job capturing the broad strokes of this FROPA so far, and timing seems to be pretty consistent across runs. There is a strong consensus among LREF ensemble members, which shows the front reaching College Station Friday morning (as indicated by 10m wind direction). Some showers/storms may develop along the cold front, through the aforementioned slot of dry air preceding the FROPA is currently poised to inhibit development. Windy conditions are anticipated as the cold front pushes through the area, which could result in hazardous marine condition across the bays and Gulf waters. These higher winds may start to develop around Friday afternoon (contingent on FROPA timing). Guidance suggest the strongest winds occuring overnight into Saturday morning, with deterministic models signaling sustained winds reaching around 25-30 knot. Amongst these models, the AiGFS, AiECMWF and Canadian lean a tad more aggressive with winds. Ensembles generally tell a similar story with the uppermost values approaching Gale levels over the Gulf. There is some uncertainty with the full strength of the FROPA. For the time being, there is high (>80%) confidence in sustained winds exceeding at least 20 knot across the Gulf between Friday afternoon and Saturday evening. LREF and GFS ensemble still indicate the coldest/driest conditions should lag behind the FROPA, Saturday afternoon & Sunday morning, which the NBM is also picking up on now as well. As for how cold things will get... thats still has some uncertainty. Multi-run mean temperatures in the GFS have increased compared to days prior, and the dominant LREF cluster has lower midlevel heights east of the longwave trof with higher heights behind it (36% of members). Its entirely possible that much of the colder air swings eastward with the trough/sfc low. Highs for Saturday afternoon are currently forecasted to top out in the 70s/lower 80s. Early morning lows on Sunday are forecasted to reach the 50s/60s. The exact numbers are likely to change these next few days, though generally the spread across ensemble members has been tightening. 03 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026 HOU experiencing MVFR VSBYs with nearby SHRA. All other terminals at VFR. MVFR CIGs expected to develop for terminals along and north of I-10 around 04Z and continue through around 10Z. IFR CIGs will be possible for UTS/CXO terminals. Expect improvement to VFR around late morning. Another round of SHRA with isolated TSRA expected again tomorrow afternoon after 18Z, particularly for coastal terminals. Periods of MVFR/IFR VSBYs and CIGs may occur at terminals impacted by showers and storms. Winds will be out of the SE at 5-10 knots, though some gusts to around 15-20 knots will be possible with any nearby showers or storms. Bailey && .MARINE... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026 Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue throughout most of the work week, prompting caution flags at times. This flow will also result in higher seas, abnormally high water levels (to around 3.5 ft MLLW at high tide), and an elevated risk of rip currents for Gulf-facing beaches. Scattered/isolated showers and storms will be possible early this week, decreasing into Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front is expected to push through the region on Friday, producing higher winds and seas into the weekend. There is high (>80%) confidence in sustained winds exceeding at least 20 knots across the Gulf between Friday afternoon to Saturday night, thus Small Craft Advisories are likely. Mariners should stay up to date on the forecast as there is potential for strong winds/seas (25-30 knots) and gale conditions, which may develop Friday night/Saturday morning. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 94 76 94 / 20 30 10 20 Houston (IAH) 78 92 77 92 / 30 60 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 81 87 81 86 / 30 30 20 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Bailey MARINE...03