FXUS64 KHGX 161925 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 225 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Life-threatening flooding remains possible through Wednesday. An additional 4-10" is possible. Rainfall rates have exceeded 2-5" per hour in some locations. - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for coastal portions of Southeast Texas. Winds may gust as high as 40 mph at times, especially as we head into Wednesday. - Moderate to high risk of rip currents each day. Elevated tides may lead to minor coastal flooding, especially on Wednesday/Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Low pressure will continue to organize along the southern Texas coast and will likely move into the Gulf over the next few hours. NHC has identified this feature as Potential Tropical Cyclone 1, and Tropical Storm Watches are currently in effect for portions of the southeast Texas coast. While we aren't expecting a ton of wind impacts, this system will bring with it an increased threat of heavy rainfall as it interacts with an anomalously moist airmass (even for this time of year). Of course, where the heavier rain falls will greatly depend on the overall track, which is forecast to cross into southeast LA Wednesday evening. Latest guidance suggests the heavier rain will stay offshore, with as much as 2-4" further inland. These totals will be higher if rain bands develop and stall over the area. Given the uncertainty, we will continue the Flash Flood Watch for most of the area, the exception being our northern tier of counties. The TS Watch will continue through Thursday morning, as TC1 continues its northeastward progression over LA. Rain chances will decrease quite rapidly on Thursday as we become situation on the southwest side of the low and subsidence really kicks in. Moisture will persist and plentiful sunshine is likely. This will increase the chance of dangerous heat conditions which may be exacerbated by overnight lows remaining in the upper 70s to even lower 80s. With little relief from the heat overnight, the prolonged period of apparent temps greater than 110 will likely compound heat illnesses, especially for those that are more vulnerable to heat. The most likely timeframe for this to occur is from Friday through the weekend. Still too far to start talking headlines, but something to remain aware of given the outdoor activities around the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue around the region, especially northwest of the Houston Metro area. This band of rain is forecast to diminish this afternoon. Additional showers are forecast to lift north this afternoon into the early evening, so have kept mention of rain in the TAFs through much of the period. MVFR to VFR ceiling continue through the afternoon with MVFR ceilings becoming more prominent after 06Z. PTC#1 is forecast to lift up the Texas Gulf coast Wednesday, creating some gustier southeasterly winds. Forecast confidence is low, and amendments to the TAF are likely as the timing of the storms and what ultimately happens with PTC#1 becomes clearer. && .MARINE... Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 Additional rounds of widespread showers/storms are expected through the later half of the work week. Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas of 3 to 6 feet are expected to increase tonight into Wednesday as a low moves into the northwestern Gulf. Moderate to strong onshore winds may develop as this system tracks through the waters. While there is a large difference in timing between models, the most intense winds are generally anticipated to occur some time between 4AM to 4PM on Wednesday. Intensity is contingent on tropical development, though winds around 20-30 knots with gusts to Gale will be possible. Seas could reach 7-10 feet, potentially higher at times. Tropical funnels and waterspouts could develop as well. Strong currents are expected. Minor coastal flooding is possible on Wednesday and Thursday around high tide. A moderate to high risk of rip currents is expected for Gulf-facing beaches as well. Sustained winds should drop under 25 knots around Thursday afternoon, though seas will remain slightly elevated, only dropping below 6 ft by around Friday afternoon/evening. 03 && .TROPICAL... Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 A trough of low pressure currently over the eastern Texas/Mexico boarder is expected to drift north-northeastward throughout today. Spaghetti plots for Invest 90L all support this motion, with the system favored to move into northwestern Gulf along the Texas coast today. Once over the waters, this low could deepen and potentially organize into a tropical storm. Convection within this low has flared up overnight, showing more promising signs of TC development. With this in mind, NHC now gives this system a 60% chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours. Regardless of tropical development, heavy rainfall is expected and dangerous marine conditions are possible. Rainfall rates are expected to be around 2-5"/hr, possibly higher, especially along the coast. Moderate to strong winds could develop across the waters and bays early Wednesday with gusts to gale. Tropical funnels and waterspouts could spin up at times throughout Wednesday. Minor coastal flooding could occur as well. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 88 77 94 / 10 20 0 0 Houston (IAH) 75 88 78 94 / 40 70 30 20 Galveston (GLS) 80 88 83 90 / 70 90 40 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Tropical Storm Watch for TXZ214-337-338-436>439. Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ164-177>179-197>200- 210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ436>438. Coastal Flood Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ330. Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...JTC AVIATION...WFO MARINE...03