FXUS64 KHGX 100524 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1224 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mother's Day Sunday will remain mostly dry before the early afternoon as another round of severe thunderstorms is expected to emerge southward from Central Texas through the evening and overnight. - Some isolated severe thunderstorms could form ahead of the main line of thunderstorms, and both rounds of storms will carry the threat of damaging winds and large hail. - Dry and seasonable conditions are expected through the following workweek with a gradual warm-up by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Weather conditions in the next 24-48 hours will be the most active in the forecast period across southeast Texas. This is due to a swiftly-moving embedded trough that is finishing emergence from the Intermountain West into the Southern Great Plains this morning. Attendant to this troughing is the frontal boundary driving our next chance of severe weather arriving later today. The favorable atmospheric environment ahead of this boundary consists/will consist of elevated mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km and CAPE values in excess of 2500+ J/kg, while bulk shear of 30+ kts will also aid updraft separation for large hail production (especially with any isolated supercells that could form in the evening). The main line of strong to severe thunderstorms will begin to arrive closer to the evening twilight hours across Piney Woods zones, reaching the I-10 corridor before midnight. Damaging winds will become a more predominant threat overnight as the line of storms congeals and reaches the Upper Texas shoreline. By the dawn hours of Monday morning, the storms and frontal boundary will be offshore with ensuing post-frontal conditions elsewhere, including some fairly seasonable temperature maximums/minimums in the low-to-mid 80s/upper 60s respectively. Surface northerly winds will continue later into Tuesday before veering back as the surface ridge axis shifts to our east towards the lower Mississippi River Valley. By the end of the next workweek, the 70-degree isodrosotherm makes its return with long- range guidance very gradually re-introducing some rain chances into next weekend. By then, some temperature maximums could reach the 90-degree mark. Cassel && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms currently ongoing west of I-45. Expect this activity to persist through 02Z-03Z before dissipating. MVFR to IFR ceilings expected to develop overnight across most terminals along with the potential for reduced visibilities due to patchy fog. This is especially the case if any of the area terminals see rainfall late this afternoon or evening. Winds will remain light and variable through Sunday morning before becoming light and predominantly southeasterly by the mid-morning hours on Sunday. MVFR ceilings likely lingering through 16Z-17Z before lifting to VFR areawide. Late Sunday evening into the overnight hours (most likely beginning around or after 03Z/Monday), a line of storms is expected to push through the area along a frontal boundary. Some of these storms may be strong to severe and capable of producing strong winds and hail. Northerly winds and MVFR ceilings are anticipated in the wake of the front. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 The next 24-48 hours will be the most eventful across marine zones due to frontal passage beginning just before midnight on Sunday. A line of strong thunderstorms (some still severe) will emerge offshore, producing some moderate downdraft winds. After the storms abate in the dawning hours on Monday, post-frontal northerly winds will remain through the rest of the day before veering back onshore by Wednesday through the rest of the drier and milder workweek ahead. All post-frontal winds are expected to remain below the threshold requiring issuance of a Small Craft Advisory at this time. Cassel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 87 66 79 63 / 20 70 20 0 Houston (IAH) 88 69 83 66 / 20 60 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 83 74 83 72 / 0 60 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cassel AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Cassel