FXUS64 KHGX 082314 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 614 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot conditions continue. Daytime highs will be in the 90s with heat indices in the triple digits. - Scattered, diurnally driven thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Strong gusty winds, locally heavy downpours and frequent lightning are the main risks with the strongest storms. Lower, but non- zero, rain chances Thursday. - A deeper surge of Gulf moisture should arrive Thursday night and Friday. Daily chances of showers and storms will continue through the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 A weak mid-level trough axis remains stretched across southeast Texas, interacting with our typical summertime sea breeze pattern. Early this afternoon, obs show PW values in the 1.7-1.9 inch range, and near 2.0 inches closer to the coast. Daytime heating and sufficient moisture will continue to support isolated to scattered, diurnally driven sea breeze showers/storms through early this evening. While dry air aloft is driving decent mixing, any stronger storms will be capable of producing localized downpours, frequent lightning and gusty winds (25-45 mph) through the evening hours. A rinse-and-repeat forecast is expected on Thursday, with isolated coastal showers/storms in the morning, developing further inland in the afternoon. However, chances will be lower due to a lack of moisture. Heading into Friday and the weekend, an inverted mid-level trough over the southwestern Gulf and a tightening pressure gradient over our region will open the gates for a deeper tropical moisture surge. This deep moisture profile, combined with persistent weakness/vorticity maxes aloft, will set up the stage for more scattered to widespread showers and storms (40 to 75%) persisting into at least mid-week next week. Seasonal summer heat continues with highs climbing into the mid 90s. Hot conditions paired with persistent southerly to southwesterly flow, and more Gulf moisture will result in peak heat indices in the triple digits (100-107F). Temperatures are progged to be a few degrees cooler next week given higher PoPs. JM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Latest radar and satellite imagery show mainly quiet weather around the forecast area, with VFR prevailing at all TAF sites. Will need to monitor for further thunderstorm development over the next couple of hours, but overall dry weather is anticipated through the remainder of the night. Overnight tonight, patchy fog/stratus clouds are expected to develop again in a few spots. Added TEMPO groups for brief MVFR ceilings around sunrise at locations that have seen ceilings over the past few mornings. Any ceilings that do develop should lift and dissipate by mid/late morning. The SAL will make its return tomorrow and should help mitigate or suppress widespread seabreeze thunderstorm activity. However, a few spotty showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out with the seabreeze through the afternoon. At this time, coverage and probabilities are too low (below 30%) to mention any chance of precipitation in the TAFs through tomorrow evening. Surface winds remain light out of the SW/S through tomorrow morning, with a slight bump in wind speeds out of the south during the afternoon light. Overall, VFR is anticipated to prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds (generally from the south-southwest) and seas between 1 and 3 ft will prevail through most of the period. However, a tightening pressure gradient will lead to slightly stronger winds (gusts up to 20 kts at times) and seas up to 4-5 ft (offshore) late tonight through late Friday. A typical summer pattern continues with a daily risk of isolated to scattered morning showers and storms, gradually moving further inland in the afternoon. The best rain/storm chances arrive Friday through Saturday and then again in the upcoming week as different disturbances move through the region. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 97 76 95 / 20 10 10 20 Houston (IAH) 78 96 79 95 / 20 20 10 30 Galveston (GLS) 83 91 82 90 / 0 20 20 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Mejia MARINE...JM