FXUS64 KHGX 040529 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - A slow moving cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms today. A few heavier thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. - Much cooler and breezy conditions expected Easter Sunday, with rain showers possibly lingering into the morning and afternoon hours in our southern and coastal counties. - Risk of moderate to strong rip currents today into the weekend. - Gradual warm-up expected second half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 A rather dynamic pattern has set up over central CONUS tonight. As of 11PM, a robust mid/upper low is centered over the Dakotas. Ahead of the low exists a strong southwesterly and diffluent jet aloft, providing the UL divergence to sustain a sfc low over Iowa. The low's trailing cold front extends down the plains into northern Texas. The highly sheared and diffluent flow aloft is inducing deep convection along the frontal boundary. This front will push southward into our region on Saturday, increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms by afternoon (though some scattered activity is expected in the morning). The most favorable dynamics for deep convection will remain north of our region. That being said, the flow aloft will not be short of embedded vort maxes. The lift from these vorticity maxima and the sfc convergence from the front, coupled with high PWATs pooling northward from the Gulf could result in locally heavy showers and thunderstorms. A severe thunderstorm capable of damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Localized flooding will also be a possibility. Therefore, SPC has kept our area in a Level 1 of 5 severe weather threat, while WPC continues to place our region in a Level 1 of 5 excessive rainfall risk. Regarding timing, the best chance of heavier showers and thunderstorms is during the afternoon hours across our northern counties, while areas farther south experience their highest thunderstorm risk late in the afternoon and into the evening. Easter Sunday is unfortunately a tricky forecast. The front is expected to push southward towards the coast and eventually offshore. But lingering shower activity could extend into Easter, especially south of I-10. Relative to our last update, I gave PoPs a little bit of boost for areas south of I-10 on Sunday. This is mostly due to the continued parade of vort maxes providing lift to the Southeast Texas atmosphere. The other tricky aspect about Sunday is the temperatures. With enough clouds and CAA, I could see temperatures being 5-10 degrees colder in some areas. For now, I'm going with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to near 70. Monday is looking mostly dry with highs in the 70s. But we cannot rule out lingering showers near the coast and offshore. As for the longer range, a strong Canadian high pressure system will dig southward over E CONUS by Tuesday and Wednesday. Sometimes you have to watch for overperforming backdoor cold fronts in these situations. But at this time, we are thinking that the high will mostly enhance LL onshore flow. This will tend to gradually increase temperatures and humidity by the second half of the week. In addition, more pesky vorticity maxima may add lift to the equation by week's end. Therefore, rain chances begin to increase again by Thursday and especially Friday. Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 Showers are beginning to cease this evening with ground observations suggesting that precip is very light and or evaporating before reaching the ground. MVFR CIGS should fill in across SE Texas this evening. Model guidance has backed down slightly on IFR potential, though it would still be prudent to plan for at least a brief period of IFR CIGs during the early morning hours of Saturday. Showers should develop again over the area Saturday morning with coverage growing ahead of an approaching cold front. This front should reach the College Station area earlier in the afternoon, then the Houston area late in the afternoon before pushing off the coast in the evening. Thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of and along the front, some of which could become severe, producing damaging wind gusts and low visibility from heavy rainfall. Light showers are expected to linger in the wake of the cold front, mainly along and south of the I-10 corridor. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 Moderate southeast flow and enhanced southeasterly swell/waves should decrease somewhat as a cold front approaches today. Scattered shower activity is possible today, with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening through Sunday as the front pushes offshore. Winds will increase from the north to northeast on Sunday, remaining elevated through Monday. Sustained winds over 20 knots with gusts up to around 30 knots are expected, especially over the Gulf. Seas will likely build as a result, easily reaching 4-6 feet nearshore and 6-9 feet offshore. Seas may be higher at times. The prospect of offshore thunderstorms complicates Sunday's winds forecast. Thunderstorms can result in higher winds that extend far from the parent storm. Showers and storms may linger into Monday. Winds weaken and veer east by Tuesday, before veering southeast by Wednesday. Southeasterly flow is expected to increase later in the week. This would likely be accompanied by corresponding increases in the swell. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 85 70 77 54 / 20 30 80 40 Houston (IAH) 84 72 82 60 / 20 20 70 70 Galveston (GLS) 81 73 79 65 / 30 10 40 80 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Saturday afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...03 MARINE...Self