FXUS64 KHGX 071720 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1220 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild and pleasant weather for today and tonight. - Expect increasingly warm and humid conditions as the week progresses. - Chance of showers and thunderstorms increases, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall Friday into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Dry conditions will prevail for the rest of today with sunny to partly cloudy skies and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Winds this afternoon will be easterly, gradually veering southeast late this evening. For tonight, expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with lows in the lower 50s over the Piney Woods region, the mid 50s to lower 60s over the rest of the inland portions, and the mid to upper 60s along the coast. A weak upper level trough and a few vort maxes are to pass through TX overnight into early Wednesday morning and could lead to some very light quick passing showers, although chances are rather low. With the return of southeasterly winds, we will have an increase in low level moisture during the second part of the week. Most of this moisture will be over the Gulf waters and coastal locations on Wednesday, and this is the area with the best chance for rain that afternoon. Chances are on the lower side, around 15-20%, given that the axis of the upper level trough will be over LA by the afternoon. Otherwise, expect sunny to partly cloudy skies and highs rising into the upper 80s for much of Southeast TX. Conditions will get a little more stormier on Thursday as moisture levels continue to rise and a weak coastal trough develops over the TX coast. The day will start with isolated to scattered showers moving in from the Gulf Thursday morning. As diurnal heating kicks up and instability increases, showers and thunderstorms should develop further inland. The higher PoPs are expected to occur over areas near and south of I-10. Rain chances could continue during the Thursday night to early Friday morning period. A further rise in shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected during the day on Friday as a weak mid-upper level trough moves across TX. There will be plenty of moisture to work with that day, with PWs ranging between 1.4 to 1.7 inches. The current forecast carries scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms for areas near and south of I-10 and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for areas north of I-10 Friday morning. During the afternoon, most locations could have scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms (lowest over the Piney Woods area). Given the amount of moisture that will be in place, moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible at times. No significant flooding is expected at this time, although ponding of water along roadways and low lying areas can be expected in areas with heavy rainfall. Skies will be cloudy for much of the day and the highs will peak in the upper 70s for much of the region (could affect our rain chances over some areas). Rain chances are expected to decrease during the night hours, however, the coastal areas could still have isolated showers pass through from time to time. Rain chances continue on Saturday, but an upper level ridge is expected to build and should limit shower development a bit. The GFS does show a very weak embedded disturbance passing through Southeast TX that afternoon, which could help suppress some of the subsidence. At this time, expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over areas south of I-10 Saturday morning, followed by isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over areas along and west of I-45. We will see rain chances in the forecast for Sunday and Monday. Some of the shower and thunderstorm activity will be diurnally induced, however, much of it will be from storms moving in from northern and central TX. Thus, our higher rain chances should be over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region for both Sunday and Monday. Cotto && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 551 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 VFR with just variable high cloudiness streaming overhead for the next 30 hours. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Light to moderate southeast winds will continue through early next week. Winds will be strongest during the early night to mid- morning hours and Caution Flags may be required at times. Strong rip currents are also possible along the Gulf facing beaches. Seas will be 3 to 5 feet through Thursday, however, a swell driven by stronger winds over the eastern and northern Gulf waters is expected to move into our local area and increase seas to 4-7 feet late Thursday into early next week. Seas could be slightly higher over the offshore Gulf waters. Caution flags and/or Small Craft Advisories may be needed. There is a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, highest on Thursday night into Friday. Elevated winds and seas may occur in and around strong thunderstorms. Cotto && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 54 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 77 58 81 64 / 0 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 73 68 76 70 / 0 0 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cotto AVIATION...47 MARINE...Cotto