FXUS64 KHGX 101942 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 242 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Deeper tropical moisture has filtered into the region and should provide 30-60% chances of showers and thunderstorms each day through this weekend. Overall coverage should be highest across the southern half of the region. - Let's keep an eye out for even better chances of precipitation Monday-Tuesday across all of the area. Localized heavy rain cannot be ruled out. - Hotter conditions and lower rain/storm chances during the second half of the work week as higher pressure filters in from the east. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026 Deeper tropical moisture has successfully filtered into southeast TX early this afternoon, with recent Blended TPW satellite imagery indicating widespread PW values in the 2.0-2.3 inch range. This deep moisture profile, combined with peak daytime heating and weak lift associated with a subtle inverted trough sliding by to our south, will remain sufficient to support widely scattered showers and storms through the remainder of the afternoon. Some localized heavy downpours will be possible, but expect this activity to gradually diminish by early this evening. Tropical moisture is expected to stick around over the next few days with PWs running in the 90th/95th percentile of climatology for this time of year. Therefore, increased rain/storm chances are expected Saturday and Sunday. Generally, expect showers and storms to initiate along the coastal counties and waters during the late night/morning hours, spreading inland during the afternoon. This will not be a complete washout and not everyone will see rain each day; however, keep an eye on the skies and have a temporary plan B ready if planning outdoor activities. Heading into late Sunday/Monday, the pattern aloft shifts as the ridge strengthens and expands across the Rockies and central CONUS. Southeast Texas will be positioned on the southern periphery of this expansive high, setting up a highway for multiple impulses of energy/vort maxes embedded in the flow aloft to ride westward through midweek. At the surface and up through 700 mb, enhanced low- level convergence will be in place as a weak frontal boundary sags southward along the southeastern CONUS. This convergent setup, paired with the persistent deep moisture and daytime heating, warrants maintaining rain/storm chances in the forecast. On a side note, will also continue to monitor the potential arrival of drier air aloft Monday into Tuesday, likely associated with another incoming round of the Saharan Air Layer. At the moment, uncertainty remains regarding the overall thickness and density of this dust layer, and whether it will deliver a sufficient amount of dry air aloft to suppress deep convection. For now, have leaved towards a wetter forecast, with 60 - 80% PoPs Sunday through Tuesday. Localized heavy rain and occasional gusty winds will be possible within the strongest storms. WPC highlights this risk in their Sunday into Tuesday period with a Slight and/or Marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Abundant cloud cover and rain chances will result in a couple of days of highs mainly in the mid 80s to near 90, at least. Beyond Wednesday...high pressure builds/expands over the northern Gulf/southeastern CONUS. This building ridge will give way to hotter conditions and higher heat indices across the region along with isolated diurnally-driven seabreeze activity. JM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026 Isolated to widely scattered showers are seen moving into sites KGLS and KLBX. A few strikes have been seen in these cells, but latest satellite and radar trends have shower weaker storms. The main concern for this TAF period is the potential for showers and thunderstorms later this morning and afternoon. Uncertainty remains about the timing and coverage of showers and storms. For example, the latest HRRR runs have backed off on scattered shower development while the WRF models show scattered to numerous showers and storms late this morning and into the afternoon. The main change with this cycle was to add TEMPOs/PROB30s to our southern TAF sites for the morning time period for thunderstorms. Uncertainty remains high with this forecast and PROB30s were maintained for the afternoon round of storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026 Onshore winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts between 15 to 20 knots will persist tonight and into the weekend. Seas will generally remain 2 to 4 ft through the period. A daily threat of scattered showers and storms is expected with the best chances overnight into the morning hours, spreading over the bays by late morning/early afternoon. More numerous activity is expected Monday and Tuesday. While severe weather is not anticipated, heavy downpours, lightning, gusts around 25 to 35 kts, and building seas cannot be ruled out near any stronger storms. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions will be possible at times through at least next Wednesday. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 93 76 93 / 20 30 10 20 Houston (IAH) 78 92 77 93 / 20 50 20 60 Galveston (GLS) 84 90 83 89 / 30 50 50 50 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Williams MARINE...JM