FXUS64 KHGX 241840 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 140 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible over the area this afternoon and evening. - Gradual warming trend with temperatures reaching into the upper 80s to lower 90s by this weekend. - Above normal temperatures continue during the early to middle part of next week, with at least isolated showers and thunderstorms possible over portions of the region each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 A warm and moist southerly surface flow pattern persists across southeast Texas early this afternoon between ridging over the Gulf and ahead of a cold front moving from the Red River Valley into portions of west Texas. Surface temperatures warming into the lower to mid 80s along with dewpoints mostly in the lower 70s will result in moderate instability this afternoon into early this evening with resultant surface-based CAPE values up to 2500-3500 J/KG across our region. Weak shortwave impulses embedded within zonal flow aloft will move across portions of southeast Texas later this afternoon into this evening, which may aid in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms over portions of our region. Any storm that develops will be capable of becoming strong to severe given the available instability and 35-40 kt of deep layer shear. Most CAMs keep convection at a minimum over our forecast area this afternoon and evening, though the HRRR has recently been persistent in showing at least isolated strong to severe convection forming after 4-5 PM this afternoon over parts of southeast Texas. SPC has maintained a Marginal (1 of 5) severe risk over much of our area this afternoon and evening for a low end damaging wind and large hail potential with any isolated severe storm(s) that manage(s) to form. Additional strong to severe convection is expected to develop over parts of north and northeast Texas along an outflow boundary this afternoon. These storms mostly look to impact northeast Texas into north central Louisiana later this afternoon and evening but has a small potential to clip far northern portions of our area, including around Houston and Trinity counties, where SPC has a Slight (2 of 5) risk of severe storms into this evening. We will monitor radar trends through the afternoon/evening closely. For now, we will keep rain/storm chances very low (10-20 percent) this afternoon into this evening. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will otherwise continue into tonight with potential for patchy fog development late. Overnight lows range will continue to range in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the region. Weak shortwave ridging aloft develops over the area during the day Saturday, but may be followed by another shortwave impulse in the zonal flow aloft late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. This feature may bring another slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly to our northern zones during this time. Any storm that manages to develop could become strong to marginally severe. Additional weak ridging aloft looks to develop over southeast Texas Sunday into Monday, so rain/storm chances remain minimal both days. Still cannot rule out a very isolated storm or two given sufficient moisture and afternoon heating but overall POPs will remain less than 15 percent. At least isolated afternoon/ evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day Tuesday-Thursday given occasional shortwave impulses embedded within zonal flow aloft. Storm chances may still become favored over northern portions of the region by the middle of next week as a front potentially approaches the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. Outside of storm chances, we still expect temperatures to warm well above normal this weekend into next week with readings reaching into the upper 80s to lower 90s over inland locations and in the lower to mid 80s along the coast. Humid conditions may result in maximum apparent temperatures (heat index) readings in the upper 90s to around 102 degrees by early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 534 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Widespread MVFR ceilings will continue through late this morning before lifting back to VFR around 18Z. MVFR ceilings may linger into the afternoon along the coast. Visibility restrictions have been limited overnight due to elevated southerly winds. Winds will be southerly around 10 kt late this morning and into the afternoon before becoming light and variable overnight into Saturday morning. Isolated showers and storms will be possible later this afternoon/evening, but the potential is too low to warrant putting it in any of the TAFs at this time. Due to the lighter winds, there is a bit more confidence in IFR ceilings developing along with reduced visibilities due to patchy fog overnight into Saturday morning. At least widespread MVFR ceilings will filter in from south to north again overnight. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the weekend. A long fetch of these southeasterly winds may bring increased seas at times. Above normal water levels near 3.0 feet MLLW are still expected at each high tide cycle through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 71 89 71 90 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 73 90 73 90 / 10 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 74 81 74 81 / 10 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lindsey AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Lindsey