FXUS64 KHGX 011133 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 633 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Flood Watch in effect through tonight. Showers and thunderstorms expected through this evening. Rainfall heavy at times. A few stronger thunderstorms capable of hail. Thunderstorms capable of strong winds possible near the coast. - Gale Warning in effect for the Bays and Gulf this evening through midday Saturday. Winds and seas to become very hazardous for mariners. - After a significant cool down today and this weekend, expect a gradual warm-up during the first half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026 The long awaited upper low has finally arrived, bringing large scale UL diffluence and strong mid/upper shear. At the surface, a frontal boundary has stalled near the coast. This boundary may nudge northward this afternoon, before crashing southward as moderate to strong CAA pushes into the region from the north. The large scale lift and deep tropical moisture overrunning the cooler sfc air will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall is likely. Rainfall rates in the heaviest showers/thunderstorms are expected to reach 2-3" per hour, which is enough to result in localized flooding. Widespread rainfall totals are expected to be in the 2-4 inch range, with some potential for localized totals up to 5-6 inches. These amounts are likely to result in rises to area rivers and watersheds, with action to minor stage flooding the most likely outcome. In addition, the environment will be favorable for embedded stronger thunderstorms capable of hail. For areas along and south of the front, we could have a damaging wind risk or even a tornado risk today. This is mostly a potential issue for our coastal counties. Temperatures north of the front will remain cool. If the front moves far enough north, then our coastal zones could warm well into the 70s. Meanwhile to the north, temperatures are expected to be in the 60s. Our northern zones could spend much of the day in the 50s. Showers and storms exit the region this evening, yielding to a chilly, breezy night in the 50s (40s northern Piney Woods, around 60 at the coast). Coastal areas are expected to become downright windy. We may need to consider a wind advisory along the coast this evening and tonight, where gusts could approach 40 MPH. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the Gulf waters. The weekend is looking spectacular, with highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s (60s at the beaches). The cool air won't last long. Expect a warm-up during the early half of next week. Temperatures may approach 90 with increasing humidity Tuesday and Wednesday. Cold front may bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday, followed by somewhat lower temps (low 80s for highs) and lower humidity on Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026 A messy day is expected across SE Texas with persistent IFR to MVFR CIGs (600-1200ft) and periods of showers and thunderstorms throughout this evening. Main coverage of the showers and storms will be north of I-10 through the morning, but expect the area to grow down to the coast by the early afternoon and persist through this evening. There will be west to east propagating rounds of heavier rainfall/storms every couple of hours through the day, so have predominately -SHRA VCTS with TEMPOs of TSRA for most TAF sites. Expect visibility reductions to 1-2mi in heavier storms. Activity will end from west to east between 01-04z this evening, but the IFR to MVFR CIGs will persist through Saturday morning. Northeasterly winds will prevail through the day around 10-15kt with gusts to 25kt inland, and then gusts to 30-35kt expected along the coast by the afternoon. The wind gusts inland will end overnight, but the gusty winds will likely stick around at the coast through Saturday morning. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026 Periods of rain and thunderstorms expected through this evening. Locally stronger thunderstorms will be capable of hail, gale force winds, and waterspouts. Winds today will generally be northeast 15-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Winds may gusts closer to 35 knots by late afternoon. Winds strengthen overnight, averaging closer to 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots (possibly higher). Bay waters become very rough while nearshore Gulf seas build to 6-9 feet, offshore seas to 9-13 feet. Conditions should gradually improve Saturday. However, Small Craft level winds are likely to continue into the afternoon while Gulf seas should remain above 6 feet well into Saturday evening or night. A light southeasterly flow regime returns by Sunday. Winds become southerly and increase by Tuesday into Wednesday. Cold front brings a chance of showers and storms on Wednesday. Gusty east to northeast winds and building seas are possible in the front's wake on Thursday into Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 62 51 71 50 / 100 60 0 0 Houston (IAH) 67 55 74 53 / 100 70 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 76 61 75 66 / 90 80 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ164-176>179-195>200- 210>213-226-227-300-313. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-350. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ335-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...Self