FXUS64 KHGX 262333 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 633 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low but non-zero chance of a strong to severe storm this afternoon and evening. - Above normal temperatures in the 80s/mid 90s and isolated daily rain chances continue through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Have had a few light returns pop up on radar this afternoon. Will need to keep an eye on the sea breeze this afternoon as the environment remains moist, unstable, and primed for thunderstorms. The limiting factor is the dry air in the mid-levels and that the best forcing resides to the north of our CWA; however, the sea breeze could kick off some convection this afternoon. While dry air would normally inhibit storm development, we may have enough instability, shear, and low-level moisture for storms to overcome that mid-level environment...in which case, these storms could produce damaging winds if dry air gets entrained and results in significant evaporative cooling (would send the downdraft rushing to the surface as the cool air sinks rapidly). Lapse rates appear to be on the steeper side as well, so if storms are able to overcome dry air completely, updrafts could penetrate the hail growth zone. It's a bit tough to predict in these environments...models, even hi-res models, do not typically get a good grasp on the full picture and it can become hit or miss with their accuracy. This is when it helps to pay attention to satellite trends, nearby environments and use some good old fashioned meteorology. What I know for certain is that we have all the ingredients in place, and CAMs have not been the greatest at picking up storms that have generated damaging hail and wind in the last week. The sea breeze tends to be our source of lift this time of year. 18Z soundings from CRP and from LCH (which our area sits in between those two sites) are revealing two different environments. The environment in Corpus Christi is still capped, while Lake Charles has a similar environment to what model soundings are showing for IAH and HOU. What this tells me is that areas closer to Matagorda Bay are likely more capped (similar to Corpus Christi) and the environment near Galveston Bay is more suitable for convection. The sea breeze could certainly trigger storms as it moves inland, but again--the question becomes would dry air keep clouds from having enough vertical growth for storm development. Right now satellite imagery shows generally stratus or cumulus (with minimal vertical growth). We are just starting to tap into the daytime heating, so will be keeping an eye on satellite to see if any of these cumulus clouds show further development with the sea breeze this afternoon. I know I droned on about the what ifs, especially when we aren't even outlooked for severe weather (and certainly not in as favorable of an environment as the Plains), but I do think it is important to note that models can be a bit misleading in transition seasons, and this is when looking at observations, satellite imagery, and the office window becomes important...fact of the matter is we could have storms this afternoon, but there are some limiting factors that could prevent that from happening...in this case, mid-level dry air. Moving on to this coming week, a shortwave trough is still expected to lift NE across the Great Plains. As it does, it is expected to eject a cold front towards SE Texas. At this time it appears the front is expected to slow/stall as it approaches the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods areas and my result in isolated showers and storms for these areas. A subtropical mid-level high will build in from the south during the day Tuesday. Flow will be predominantly zonal, but may have a few shortwaves move through within the overall flow, which may result in isolated showers and thunderstorms. As we get closer to next weekend, another mid-level shortwave is projected to move across the state and send another cold front towards our area. This one appears to be a bit stronger, so may actually see more widespread showers and storms with breezy and cool conditions to follow. Will keep an eye on this as we get closer in time, but at the very least that is what is on the horizon. Bailey && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Tonight's forecast leans on persistence, with MVFR cigs returning this evening, continuing through the morning. Widespread low-end MVFR is expected, with potential for areas of IFR. Gusty southeast winds will decrease this evening, becoming more southerly overnight. Winds increase from the southeast again by late morning or early afternoon on Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the next several days. Elevated water levels around 2.5 to 3.0 feet above MLLW are still expected at each high tide cycle through early next week. A slight increase in winds and seas are expected beginning around Tuesday next week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day with higher rain chances Wednesday though the end of the next work week. A modest cold front could bring moderate to strong offshore winds Friday night into next weekend. 03/Bailey && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 91 73 92 / 0 20 10 10 Houston (IAH) 75 91 75 91 / 0 10 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 75 82 75 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bailey AVIATION...Self MARINE...Bailey