FXUS64 KHGX 030408 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1108 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Pleasant weather settling into the region for the remainder of the weekend into early next week. - Cold front should bring scattered showers/storms Wednesday & Wednesday night. Some storms could become strong to severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026 Today will start out fairly cool with early morning lows in the lower 50s inland (some isolated upper 40s possible) and mid 50s/60s across the coast and Houston metro. Surface high pressure shifts east of the area during the daytime, causing winds to shift east to southeasterly. A small shortwave is anticipated to push over the area early in the day, though the drier conditions and lower PWs will make rain unlikely. A few higher clouds may develop, but otherwise conditions will be benign. Onshore flow will enable WAA over the next several days with highs today reaching the 70s/lower 80s. Monday should start off a tad warmer early in the morning with lows in the 50s/60s inland and lower 70s along the coastline. Onshore flow will facilitate moisture return with PWs climbing to 1.0-1.4 inches throughout the day. This increase in moisture will result in larger cloud cover, though afternoon highs are forecasted to reach the upper 70s/mid 80s thanks to steady WAA. Some weak impulses embedded in NW flow aloft could bring a brief shower or two, though still rain chances are sparse for Monday. Tuesday will be another warm and benign day weather wise. Lows in the morning will be warm, only dropping into the mid 60s/lower 70s with cloudy skies overhead. Cloud cover scatters out in the late afternoon with highs forecasted to reach the upper 70s/upper 80s. Rain chances are still low, but will rise into the overnight period as the next weather system approaches SE Texas. On Wednesday, an upper level trough will sweep across the Rockies/Plains. Models are still show a dry line developing over central Texas with a stronger cold front further to the north. The combination of the dry line pushing in from the west and the cold front reinforcing/overtaking it from the north should help bring showers and thunderstorms throughout the day into the night. Forecast models show deep moisture over the region with PWs for 1.5- 2.0 inches with a 20-35 knot LLJ early in the day. LREF guidance is suggesting sfc CAPE of around 1500-2200 J/KG with 500mb wind shear around 45-60 knots, though some ensemble members solutions show even higher sfc cape to 3000 J/kg possible. With decent instability and organization in conjunction with these forcing features, some strong to severe storms will be possible. SPC already has a Slight (level 2/5) Risk of severe weather over SE Texas on Wednesday, mainly for areas along/north of I-10. This is still day four of the forecast, so the specifics of this potential severe weather event could very likely change these next few days, so stay tuned for additional updates. Cooler, drier and breezy weather briefly develops on Thursday in the wake of the cold front. High pressure moves off to the east on Friday with winds shifting onshore during the afternoon, initiating a warming trend yet again. Rain chances are slated to rise into the weekend, both from rising moisture and from a series of weaker impulses coming from a mid/upper level low which broke off and retrograded west from the previous weather system. Eventually the low/trough will migrate eastward, bringing some widespread rains late in the weekend. 03 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 546 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026 Light variable winds are expected overnight, shifting from broadly northeasterly to then east to southeasterly on Sunday. VFR conditions prevailing. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026 Light to moderate onshore winds return today as high pressure pushes off to the east. Wind speeds increase Monday through mid week, likely prompting caution flags at times. Showers and storms are expected on Wednesday as the next cold front pushes through with some stronger storms possible. Anticipate moderate offshore winds Wednesday night through Thursday with caution flags likely at least. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 74 54 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 75 55 80 59 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 76 65 77 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...03 MARINE...03