FXUS64 KHGX 272341 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 641 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold front will push through the area overnight bring lower humidity and temperatures mainly in the 70s on Saturday. - An uptick in moisture and a return to above-normal temperatures are expected heading into early next week. Rain chances return during the second part of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026 A shallow cold front is currently moving across North-central TX and is progged to reach our northern counties by late this afternoon, eventually moving off of the coast after midnight. Moisture remains limited along the boundary, with PWATs generally holding in the 1.0 to 1.3 inch range. While a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out along the leading edge, a dry frontal passage is expected for the vast majority of the region. The primary impact will be a welcome airmass change as surface dewpoints drop from the 60s (today) into the upper 30s to mid 50s by Saturday afternoon. Saturday will feel much more like late March. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s under a mix of post-frontal clouds and afternoon sun. As the surface high shifts east on Sunday, onshore flow will resume, initiating a warming and more humid trend to start the work week. Ridging aloft will weaken and shift east by midweek, opening the door for a more active quasi-zonal flow and the passage of several embedded vorticity maxima. This shifting pattern, combined with increasing WAA and Gulf moisture will favor low-end rain chances starting Tuesday. The next notable chance for precipitation arrives after midweek ahead of a weak trough traversing the Plains. Models continue to suggest PW values increasing into the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range late Wednesday through the end of the week. This environment will be enough to trigger showers and thunderstorms from midweek into next weekend. JM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026 Cold front is situated across northern parts of SE Tx as of this writing and should continual its gradual southward progress and into the Gulf late tonight and early Saturday morning. VFR conditions are expected ahead of the front, but am looking for some prevailing MVFR cigs to fill in behind it, along with some NE winds 13g25kt. Winds will gradually diminish from mid morning Saturday onward and veer a bit more toward the ENE. Confidence in terms of when the MVFR ceilings will lift/scatter is lower. Have extended the duration of lower cigs for most TAF sites later into the morning compared to earlier issuances. Some guidance suggests they could linger into early afternoon, while others aren't as pessimistic. We'll keep an eye on trends. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026 Updated to add Galveston Bay into the Small Craft Advisory with several HREF members showing speeds ramping up into the 20-25kt range late tonight into mid-late Saturday morning. A cold front will enter the waters late tonight, resulting in a wind shift to the northeast on Saturday. Winds will remain between 20 to 25 knots with higher gusts possible through early afternoon; therefore, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect. It's not out of the realm of possibility to see some 30kt gusts in the waters generally east of Freeport. Wind speeds begin to weaken by Saturday afternoon, slowly transitioning to the SE Saturday night into early Sunday. Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through the entire week. The pattern aloft will begin to shift next week, resulting in the introduction of low-rain chances with the best chances towards the end of the week. JM/47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 55 72 54 82 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 59 76 56 83 / 10 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 62 72 65 75 / 10 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 4 AM CDT Saturday through Saturday afternoon for GMZ330. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to noon CDT Saturday for GMZ335. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ350- 370. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ355- 375. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...47 MARINE...JM