FXUS64 KHGX 120009 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 709 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Widely scattered streamer showers will persist through this afternoon. - Better chance of showers and storms on Sunday. A few storms may produce damaging wind gusts, hail, and localized flooding. Best chance of heavy thunderstorms will be in the Piney Woods and portions of the Brazos Valley. - Strong rip currents expected along Gulf-facing beaches through the weekend. - Increasingly summer-like weather by the second half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 123 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist today as a deep fetch of moist onshore flow continues across SE Texas. Scattered streamer showers have been occuring for areas along and west of the Brazos River this morning, and will continue through this afternoon with increasing coverage of isolated showers across the area. Cannot out-rule an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as that daytime heating perks up. While we will be experiencing a lull in the activity overnight, our attention will be on a developing cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms that will be moving through Central Texas. There remains some uncertainty on how quickly this cluster of storms will move eastwards across the state, with CAM guidance having it enter the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods region as early as 9-10am Sunday morning or as late as Noon-2pm. The earlier solution is dependent on the cluster of storms becoming cold pool dominate and speeding up its forward motion. The majority of the HREF suite of guidance leans more towards the later solution, but I do not want to count out this earlier solution. We continue to monitor for the potential of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms reaching the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods region with this cluster of storms. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms (level 1 of 5) for areas along and west of the Brazos River and in the Piney Woods. WPC has a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall (level 2 of 4) for the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region (and a Marginal Risk extending down to Lake Livingston to southern Colorado County). Overall, the severe weather threat tomorrow for our area is a very conditional: another low CAPE, high shear event. Which translates to IF thunderstorms hold themselves together long enough to reach our area or develop in the afternoon, then they could become strong to severe. The earlier solutions that have the cluster of storms being mostly overtaken by the cold pool by the time it reaches SE Texas will have very little chance of severe thunderstorms. The slower solutions, which would bring the cluster of storms into the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region during the afternoon, would have more daytime heating to work with to help produce an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm. While all severe weather hazards would be possible if severe storms develop, the main threat will be strong wind gusts, hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Areas within the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall may see up to 1-2" of rain on Sunday with locally higher amounts of 3-4" possible. Areas south of Conroe will likely see little to no rainfall on Sunday. Another lull in the shower activity is expected Sunday evening, but lingering boundaries and passing weak disturbances aloft may lead to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft with weak embedded shortwaves will lead to almost daily chances of showers and thunderstorms to the northwest, mainly along the I-35 Corridor. The majority of the region will stay too far SE from these embedded disturbances to feel much of an affect, but the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region may get glanced by some passing thunderstorms midweek. Otherwise, expect the potential for some isolated streamer showers as moist onshore flow continues. Cloud cover and rain chances will keep temperatures close to seasonal today and Sunday with high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. The persistent onshore flow and increasing southwesterly flow aloft will lead to a gradual increase in temperatures through the remainder of the week. Highs will climb from the low to mid 80s on Monday to mid to upper 80s by Thursday into the weekend (and I wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated 90 degree readings). The moist airmass will also lead to heat indices rising into the low 90s by Thursday. Fowler && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 654 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 As of this evening shower activity has either broken down or moved off the TAF sites with impacts coming from the linger cloud cover over the area. MVFR CIGs are expected to build as we head into the overnight hours with potential to once again see a brief period of IFR CIGs during the early morning hours of Sunday. Heading into the late morning and afternoon hours will see the arrival of a expected system which will have the potential to produce another round of showers and thunderstorms. Currently northern TAF sites are the more likely locations to be impacted for thunderstorms with chances getting lower and lower as you head south. Timing of these storms is looking to be as early as 15Z with a more likely time of 18 to 23Z. Otherwise, linger showers may still hold beyond sunset but will be quick to break down during the night time hours of Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 123 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026 Moderate east to southeasterly winds (around 15kt with gusts to around 20-23kt) will continue through Sunday night with seas around 3-5ft. Thus, small craft should continue to exercise caution through Sunday night. The onshore winds are expected to lower somewhat by Monday with gusts to 20kt becoming less frequent, but the onshore flow will persist all week. Seas will remain around 3-5ft through the week, with isolated higher seas possible in the offshore waters beyond 40nm. The persistent onshore flow will lead to not only an increased risk of strong rip currents, but also slightly elevated high tides. Current P-ETSS has high tides around 2.5-3ft above MLLW through the first half of next week. This is below our thresholds where we may begin to see minor coastal flooding, but the elevated tides and increased wave heights may lead to some wave run-up along Gulf-facing beaches. Isolated showers will be possible nightly through at least Monday, but then move in-land through the morning hours. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 68 79 69 83 / 20 80 40 20 Houston (IAH) 70 81 71 84 / 20 60 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 72 77 72 78 / 20 30 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fowler AVIATION...Self MARINE...Fowler