FXUS64 KHGX 082345 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 545 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and muggy tonight. Threat of sea fog redevelopment near the coast. - Next weather system approaches the area Friday with increasing shower and isolated storm chances. - Cold frontal passage Friday night followed by a return to winter this weekend into early next week.. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026 All signs point toward some more record highs being set this afternoon. Gusty south winds should diminish overnight which should allow for some late night sea fog development for those close to the coast. Elevated dewpoints should keep min temps in the upper 60s-low 70s again. PW's will linger in the 1.5-1.7" range Friday in advance of the next wx system taking shape and moving closer to the area. Thermal profile (capping) shouldn't be as much of a limiting factor for shower/tstm initiation as it was today. Am anticipating some increasing precip development/coverage in the mid-late morning hours, moreso north of the I-10 corridor, to gradually expand southward during the afternoon and evening hours as the prefrontal trof slowly sags southward through the region (eventually off the coast midnight-ish). Cannot rule out a few embedded stronger storms across our area, though the best instability/shear/dynamics look to mostly be situated further to our ene. We'll be situated in a Marginal Risk of severe wx (level 1 of 5) or a 5-15% overall shot of seeing some damaging winds or hail). Cold front itself should be 3-6 hours behind the initial wind shift and finally bring a return to winter temps back to SE TX for the weekend. NE parts of the CWA may even see a light freeze Sunday night. A brief onshore flow resumes later Monday with just some modest temp rises. Though there are no POPs currently advertised, there are a mix of deterministic models that want to bring a weak, decaying shortwave across Tuesday and produce some qpf and something we'll keep an eye on in regards to trends. Otherwise, amplifying mid level ridge to our west and digging trof to our east should make for a favorable pattern for another frontal passage toward midweek. 47 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 545 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026 Complicated forecast cycle ahead for details, but broad strokes are confident - smattering of showers moves off to the east, replaced by MVFR conditions for most, as low as IFR for some. Anticipating best conditions for most urban Houston terminals, while exurban and northern sites manage IFR CIGs, and sea fog impacts coastal sites. Sketched out timing as best I could, but will require monitoring through the evening and overnight hours to make sure TAF tracks with reality. Tomorrow also looks complicated with pre-frontal trough and trough approaching. SHRA could start to emerge as early as 12Z for northernmost sites, and throughout the day across the area. Best chances likely to be in the afternoon and early evening. Starting with VCs/PROB30s as rain should be more scattered than widespread, but may be able to introduce TEMPO/Prevailing in later cycles should confidence in impact to a specific terminal increases. For now, keep TSRA mentions to northern terminals and IAH extended, but future cycles will need to address this more broadly. && .MARINE... Issued at 127 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026 Gusty south winds and 5-8ft seas will gradually diminish this evening and overnight. Will maintain the current caution/advisory flag configuration for now and let the next shift evaluate whether they can be re-configured or downgraded this evening. Speeds look to become low enough for potential sea fog redevelopment later tonight. Fog could become dense at times...especially the southern bays and adjacent nearshore Gulf waters between midnight and noon or so. A cold front, and associated showers and isolated storms, is forecast to push off the coast late Friday night ending the rain/fog chances and usher in moderate to strong offshore winds and building seas in its wake on Saturday. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 64 75 47 58 / 0 70 40 10 Houston (IAH) 69 81 53 61 / 10 60 70 20 Galveston (GLS) 68 75 56 65 / 20 40 60 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...47