FXUS64 KHGX 020043 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 743 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Tropical Storm Edouard is just offshore nearing the TX/LA border at this time. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Chambers County, the Bolivar Peninsula, and the adjacent Gulf waters. - The primary threat through Wednesday is heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch is in effect thru 7PM Wednesday. Highest risk of heavy rain is along and east of I-45, but could fluctuate depending on the eventual track of the low. && .DISCUSSION... && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026 Latest satellite and radar imagery shows the center of Tropical Storm Edouard just offshore southeast of Sabine Pass at this time. Tropical rain bands are spreading into much of southeast TX with widespread moderate to heavy rainfall expected to move into the general vicinity of the I-45 corridor through the afternoon and evening. While winds will increase on the western side of the circulation, we expect heavy rainfall to be the main threat from this tropical system as the remnant low slowly spreads northward through Wednesday. Peak wind gusts still look like they will top out in the 25 to 40 mph across the area while rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches are expected along and east of the I-45 corridor through Wednesday. As the remnant low slowly spreads northward during the day Wednesday, additional convective bands are expected to expand in coverage during peak heating. Latest short term guidance does suggest potential for some training rain bands through the period which could result in some isolated heavier rainfall amounts in excess of 10 inches. This is most likely to occur within a narrow band from Liberty northward toward Huntsville through late Wednesday. Rain chances will be highest this afternoon and tonight in a narrow axis near the center of the circulation with a tight gradient in rainfall amounts farther to the west of the center. By late tonight into Wednesday, convection may develop well removed from the center within a broad area of low level convergence around the overall circulation. PoPs will expand outward from the center through peak heating on Wednesday with continued potential for heavy rainfall. Additional instability and ample shear associated with the remnant circulation would support a few strong storms through the afternoon and evening. Rain chances will steadily lower from south to north into late Wednesday evening and night as the system continues a slow northward track. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026 Scattered afternoon convection will continue on Thursday as the remnant low continues to slowly spread north into North Texas prior to being influenced by an expanding ridge aloft. As we get into Friday and the upcoming weekend, the upper ridge will expand across the Southern Plains and will be accompanied by a drop in total precipitable water along with increasing subsidence. This should largely reduce the footprint of afternoon convection into the weekend, although strong heating and an active sea breeze will keep rain chances primarily confined to coastal areas each day. Temperatures will slowly creep upward through the weekend with highs in the mid/upper 90s and heat indices near 105 degrees. Dunn && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 653 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026 Tropical Storm Edouard continues to impact the upcoming TAF cycle. We're primarily forecasting VFR conditions, with the potential for MVFR CIGs and elevated winds to develop around any SH/TS. Currently winds are between 5-10 kts with isolated gusts between 15-20 kts. The main impact in question is the shifting winds as the rotation to our east pushes inland. Elevated winds and lowering flight conditions will be heavily influenced by where rainbands set up. Most models agree that as this storm pushes to our north, banding will occur on the southern side of Edouard to impact our region overnight tonight and into the early morning. There is high uncertainty between the models on where exactly these narrow bands will set up, which led to a broad inclusion of SHRA and VCTS in our TAFs, primarily north of I-10. Our southern sites aren't out of the woods with SHRA chances yet, as seabreeze initiation settles back in tomorrow afternoon around 20Z to end the TAF period. BSM && .MARINE... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026 ...A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the coastal waters from High Island to Freeport from 0 to 60 NM through Wednesday morning... Rainbands from Tropical Storm Edouard will continue to move across our eastern waters this afternoon, becoming more widespread through late this evening. The center of Edouard is expected to track just east of our waters, with a landfall near the TX/LA border late this afternoon and evening. Winds are expected to back to a more northerly direction as the system approaches, with winds outside of rainbands expected to average 15 to 25 knots. Within rainbands, winds could easily gust to 30-45 knots. Seas are expected to become choppier in our eastern waters, with some potential for seas up to 5 feet offshore of High Island and Bolivar. We cannot rule out an outer rainband as far west as Matagorda. But the primary marine concerns will be in our eastern waters. Beach conditions are expected to deteriorate today, particularly for Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula with strong rip currents. While significant coastal flooding is not anticipated, minor coastal flooding and wave run-up at the beach are possible, especially during times of high tide. The highest probabilities of these conditions are expected to be north of Port Bolivar. Conditions are expected to improve once the system makes landfall this evening. However, scattered thunderstorms are possible throughout the week with light to moderate onshore winds. JM/47 && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026 Rain bands associated Tropical Storm Edouard are already impacting the upper Texas Coast. Current forecast shows a swath of 3-6" of rain over the next 72 hours extending from Chambers County to the northwest up to Houston County. Isolated totals of up to 10-15" are possible. While most of southeast Texas is experiencing abnormally to moderately dry conditions, rainfall rates could reach up to 3- 4"/hour, leading to increased flash flood potential. Based on this current rainfall forecast, we anticipate widespread rises to action stage along area rivers with isolated minor to moderate river flooding possible especially where the heaviest rainfall sets up. The primary basins of concern include the San Jacinto and Trinity rivers, and coastal bayous. Potential impacts include flooding of streets and low-lying areas. If the higher totals materialize, more significant flood impacts may occur. Residents in these areas should monitor weather updates closely and be prepared to take necessary actions especially if traveling at night. KLG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 94 76 94 / 50 60 70 40 Houston (IAH) 77 92 79 93 / 70 50 30 30 Galveston (GLS) 83 91 84 91 / 40 40 30 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ214-300-439. Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-196- 198>200-212>214-227-237-238-300-313-337-338-437>439. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ163-164-177>179- 200. Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday morning for TXZ438-439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ335. Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ355-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bailey AVIATION...BSM MARINE...Bailey