FXUS64 KHGX 101821 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 121 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers/storms possible this afternoon. A cold front will push a line of thunderstorms through SE Texas tonight into early Monday. - Slight Risk of Severe Weather through Monday morning, mainly for damaging winds, large hail and heavy downpours. - Dry and seasonable conditions are expected throughout the upcoming workweek with a gradual warm-up by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 With onshore flow back in place, instability is progged to rise this afternoon leading up to a cold front, which should push through the area overnight into early Monday morning. This afternoon, ML CAPE should climb to around 2000-3000 J/KG, possible higher with MU CAPE upwards of around 4000 J/KG possible. Mid level lapse rates range from around 6.5-7.5 degC/KM in spots. 6km bulk shear of around 30-40 knots should provide some decent organization for any storms if they can manage to get started, with cloud layer shear forecasted around 80 knots. SRH should be weak, generally under 100 m2/s2 in the afternoon with higher LCL heights of around 1400m. Capping should erode in the afternoon with some locations nearing convective temperatures. There's a chance we could see some showers and storms develop during the afternoon and early evening, though the lack of a broader lifting mechanism should keep activity isolated at most over the next few hours. The severe weather threat becomes much more pronounced later tonight as a cold front approaches the area, mainly around/after 7 PM. Some weaker impulses of vorticity could push out ahead of the front, potentially kicking off some iso-scattered convection ahead of the main system. The front itself is anticipated to reach the College Station area by around 9-11 PM tonight, producing a line of thunderstorms. A positively tilted midlevel shortwave trough will be pushing across the northern half of the state around this time with the subtropical jet to it's south. Some model guidance is showing a small area of diffluence developing around central/eastern Texas between these features, which could further enhance lift along the front itself as it pushes into SE Texas. The environment should still be fairly potent this late in the evening with DCAPE of 800- 1300 J/KG and LIs of -5 to -8. The potency of the environment will still decrease into the early morning hours of Monday, but short- range models have trended slightly more aggressive with this frontal passage with a fairly extensive, yet broken, line of convection as it moves off the coast. SPC has a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Weather across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area today/early Monday, spanning south through Livingston and Columbus. A Marginal Risk (level 1/5) extends further southward to the coast. Damaging winds and hail remain the primary hazards with these storms, but we cannot rule out the potential for a brief tornado either. Strong downpours and heavier rains will be possible in these storms, though brief. With respect to timing, isolated showers & storms may begin to develop as early as 3-6 PM. The cold front and line of storms associated with it should reach College Station around 9-11 PM with storms moving off the coast around 4-6 AM Monday. Monday should see breezy, cooler and drier weather as high pressure fills in behind the cold front. Lingering moisture and the shortwave passing over the state could bring a few isolated showers, mainly east of I-45, but otherwise conditions should be much more quiet. A mid to upper level ridge will also build over the SW/Four Corners region, ushering in a period of benign weather through the next several days. This ridge aloft should shift easterly, along with surface high pressure, allowing onshore winds to return around Tuesday night. This will allow moisture to rebuild as temperatures rise through mid week. Highs should be in the upper 70s/80s (isolated 90s possible) with lows in the 60s/70s. Around Thursday, the ridge aloft will weaken slightly as vorticity impulses & a shortwave trough push in from the Great Basin. The ridge itself will also shift east of the area on Friday, weakening it's influence over the area. Still, onshore flow and warm wx should remain in place through Friday. Rain chances begin to increase Saturday through the weekend. 03 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Southeasterly 10-15 kt winds and VFR conditions expected this afternoon. Iso to sct SHRA/TSRA expected in the late afternoon and early evening north of I-10. Will need to monitor closely for possible amendments for possible afternoon activity. Overnight, the primary concern is a line of SHRA/TSRA that is expected to reach our northern terminals during the 03-06Z time frame. There is uncertainty regarding how far south the line will make it. At this time, we think it will make it to the coast by 09-11Z, though we are unsure how strong it will be. Some of the hi-res guidance is quite aggressive, bringing strong to severe storms all the way to the coast. Other guidance shows substantial weakening of the line. Hail and high winds are the primary concerns with thunderstorms, both from the iso/sct activity this afternoon and the line overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Light east to southeast winds continue through the rest of the day. Rain chances are slim this afternoon with only a few sparse storms further offshore beyond 60nm. A cold front should push off the coast early Monday morning, bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms through the bays and Gulf waters. Stronger winds and higher waves are expected as these storms move off the coast. A few of these storms could be strong to severe, capable of producing strong wind gusts upwards of 34 to 50 knots and hail. A short period of elevated northeast winds should follow the front, reaching 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Caution flags may be briefly warranted as a result. Winds decrease Monday afternoon, shifting southeasterly Tuesday night. Light onshore winds and calmer seas prevail through Thursday, increasing on Friday. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 66 79 65 82 / 90 20 10 0 Houston (IAH) 69 83 68 84 / 60 20 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 73 83 72 81 / 60 20 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Self MARINE...03