FXUS64 KHGX 061741 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1241 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - With more sun, temperatures will run above seasonal averages, though humidity will be somewhat lower. - Can't completely rule out a brief shower or two, but best rain chances will be offshore. - Hazardous marine conditions (winds/seas) are expected at times, more so toward the end of the week from a nearby tropical disturbance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026 Drier wx continues this afternoon with northeasterly flow from a broad surface high over the eastern CONUS. Currently, a frontal boundary is stalled over the northwestern Gulf, generally around 60nm from the coastline with showers (and isolated storms) ongoing over the southern side of the boundary. Satellite derived TPW shows values of ~1.3 inches near College Station and nearly 2.0 inches at the coastline. With this deeper moisture and troughing overhead, isolated rain chances will remain in the forecast, though mainly along the coast/over the Gulf waters. Rain chances further inland will be slim to none. We're currently keeping a close eye on a disturbance over the Southwestern Gulf. Currently this disturbance is just a cluster of showers and storms ongoing in conjunction with a broad area of low pressure. Wind shear is rather potent over the northern end of the Gulf (due to the front & troughing), though the far southern extend is lower, coinciding with SSTs of 29-31C. Overall conditions are favorable for tropical development, with NHC giving this system a 90% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. This system is currently expected to drift eastward towards Yucatan Peninsula, later turning sharply north towards the Northern Gulf Coast. No significant impacts are expected for SE Texas at this time. Though regardless of tropical development, increasing winds and seas will be possible across the upper Texas coast. Global models are also showing the mid/upper trough currently overhead filling northeast this weekend. We could see a small uptick in showers/storms chances as well, but overall this flow pattern favors steering the tropical system away from SE Texas. Conditions briefly dry out around Sunday as the trough departs to the northeast. Ridging builds over the Gulf coast early next week. Onshore flow returns as well, resulting in rising temperatures, moisture and rain chances. 03 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026 VFR condition prevail through the entire TAF period. Winds out of the NE between 5-10kts with a FEW-SCT low-mid levels clouds speckling the sky this afternoon into evening. Winds overnight become light and VRB with no CIG/VIS impacts expected. Tomorrow late morning the NE breeze shifts more in a ENE fashion and will remain between 5-10kts. CMW && .MARINE... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026 Northeasterly winds are expected over the next several days, currently light to moderate, though may warrant caution flags at times. These winds should strengthen through mid week as the pressure gradient tightens from a developing tropical disturbance over the Southwestern Gulf. This system is currently expected to drift eastward towards Yucatan Peninsula, later turning north towards the Northern Gulf Coast. While there is still uncertainty with timing/intensity, forecast track guidance generally keeps this system east of SE Texas. Still, increasing winds and swells will be possible later in the week. Small Craft Advisories are likely for the Gulf waters, possibly as early as Thursday, diminishing by around Sunday. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 64 91 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 70 92 72 92 / 0 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 76 87 79 87 / 10 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...CMW MARINE...03