FXUS64 KHGX 190511
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1211 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another temperate and dry day expected for Monday, though warmer
  than this past weekend.
  
 
- Marine conditions have improved but a long fetch of moderate
  easterly winds develops early this week, which may occasionally
  require intermittent caution or advisory flags.

- Warmer temperatures return this week, but just seasonable in
  nature. Rain chances will generally remain low across our CWA
  outside of Tuesday, where a passing Gulf trough could bring rain
  to our offshore waters and Matagorda Bay.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

More of the same with this forecast cycle. Building high pressure 
keeps humidity low, winds gentle (5-10 mph) out of the east, and 
skies mostly clear to partly cloudy. Under these conditions, 
temperatures continue to rise steadily, with highs on Monday and 
Tuesday reaching the upper 70s-mid 80s with inland lows in the low 
50s-60s and coastal lows in the mid 60s-low 70s. The front part of 
the workweek brings the "highest" chances for rain, but is largely 
confined offshore. Monday sees PoPs of 10-30% off Brazoria and 
Matagorda county coasts. A surface trough brings slightly elevated 
PWATs (~1.5", near seasonal average) to Matagorda Bay throughout the 
day on Tuesday. While the main threat remains offshore, 20-40 PoPs 
approach the coastline. Around these showers Monday and Tuesday, 
winds are a touch stronger offshore ~15-20 mph and seas elevate to 
~3-5 ft. Similar setup on Wednesday brings 15-30% PoPs, dissipating 
through the afternoon.


After our coast-isolated showers, the rest of the week is dry and 
continues warming. This is partially explained by an Omega Block 
developing aloft by Wednesday. These upper level patterns 
essentially "trap" high pressure and, for our region, indicate dry 
weather and light winds. By Thursday, high temperatures are largely 
in the mid-upper 80s and persist through the weekend. Inland lows in 
the mid 50s-60s and coastal lows in the mid 60s-low 70s.

BSM


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Winds will be light and 
variable during the overnight hours. Winds north of I-10 will be out 
of the ENE at 5-10 knots during the day Monday, while winds south of 
I-10 will be around 10-15 knots. Winds relax below 10 knots across 
all terminals by around 00Z

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

As high pressure transitions off to our east, a long fetch of
moderate easterly winds will set up across the northern Gulf Coast
this week. Speeds will generally be between 10 and 20 knots and
seas in the 3 to 5 foot range through midweek, though there could
be some intermittent periods of slightly higher speeds and seas in
the offshore Gulf waters which could warrant caution or advisory 
flags for short time periods for the first half of the week.

47/BSM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  55  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Houston (IAH)			  59  82  61  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)			  72  79  72  79 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BSM
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...47/BSM