FXUS64 KHGX 100954 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 354 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Sunday's Red Flag Warning for dangerous fire weather conditions is continued into Monday. Relatively poor RH recovery overnight will allow for critically low RH to emerge earlier in the day, and overlap with diminishing, but still gusty north winds. It remains important to avoid working with open flame and use extreme caution with any equipment that may cause sparks. And, as always, heed all local burn restrictions and burn bans. - Some locations well north of the Houston metro could have their first light freeze of the season around dawn Monday morning, and again Monday night into Tuesday morning. A Freeze Warning is in effect for Houston, Trinity, Madison, Polk, and Walker Counties for this morning. A freeze warning may be needed again tonight if there are any new areas expected to see their first freeze. - Hazardous marine conditions will be improving through the day today, but remain hazardous to small craft. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the coastal Gulf waters, but will be replaced by a small craft advisory as winds drop below the gale threshold. A Small Craft Advisory is also in effect for the Bays from through early Monday morning. - Additionally, the strong north winds will generate low water conditions in the bays, particularly the upper portions of Galveston Bay and the Houston Ship Channel. For this, a low water advisory is in effect through at least Monday's low tide cycle. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 While we're likely past the peak of our windy period in Southeast Texas, gusty north winds will stick with us through a good chunk of today, keeping today chilly but still very dry across the area. We'll have another opportunity for an overlap of those gusty winds and critically dry air, and at an earlier point of the day than we usually see for dangerous fire weather conditions. So, until those winds calm down enough, a red flag warning will continue across the area today. More on that in the Fire Weather section below. For a full discussion on the hazardous marine conditions occurring on the waters, we have a Marine section as well. Look for high pressure to move east of the region tonight into Tuesday morning, and for winds to diminish and flip around to easterly, then southeasterly during the day. This will begin to usher in some warmer, more humid Gulf air to coastal areas, though very low RH will persist away from the coast. As the high moves off though, the pressure gradient will tighten again, with gusty south to southwest winds developing late in the afternoon. We may need to keep an eye on locations well inland for potentially another day of elevated to critical fire weather conditions. However, the longer onshore flow persists, the more we'll see humidity and warming trend return to the region. This looks to be a fairly rapid process, with highs around 60 degrees today becoming highs around 70 tomorrow, and up around 80 degrees for Wednesday! At night, this also means that while we'll have a couple sharp nights of cold weather, including the first freeze of the season well north of the Houston metro this morning and/or tonight, that should be about it for the threat of freezing temps. Come Tuesday night, look for lows ranging from around 50 in the Piney Woods to the middle 60s at the coast. By Friday night, coastal locations may struggle to fall below 70 degrees. This of course, will be just in time for our next cold front to arrive on the scene. This will put an end to the warming trend. And unlike with the front we just saw, the long stretch of onshore flow will help moisture build enough for more substantial rain chances Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 354 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. Breezy northerly winds will continue through the afternoon, but will be on a gradual downward trend after ~18Z. Expect wind gusts up to 15-20 kt through the mid-afternoon, then taper off as winds gradually subside. Winds will trend towards becoming light and variable after sunset, but will pick up out of the south around 10-15 kt going into Tuesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 Though past its peak, observations of gale conditions are still being reported on coastal Gulf waters. The gale warning remains in effect until those gale conditions fade away, at which point the gale warning will be replaced by a small craft advisory. A small craft advisory also continues on the bays through late tonight. The strong north winds will also generate low water conditions on area bays for Monday's low tide cycle. The most severe low water conditions are anticipated on upper portions of Galveston Bay and Houston Ship Channel, where a low water advisory remains in effect. Model guidance suggests this may even linger around Manchester and Morgan's Point into Tuesday's low tide cycle, which could potentially require an extension of the low water advisory for another day. Beyond today, less rough marine conditions should prevail for most of the week ahead. Two periods to watch out for will be for a stretch of elevated southerly to southwesterly winds Tuesday night, and again this weekend when another cold front is expected to arrive. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 Though the strongest winds of this early week period have passed, gusty winds will continue through a good portion of the day Monday, along with critically low relative humidity - in many locations, the day's RH will dip to lower values than on Sunday. The watch-out for Monday in particular will be that less effective recovery in RH overnight will result in an effective fire environment earlier in the day than usual. This will be exacerbated by the fact that the strongest winds of the day are expected to be in the morning rather than the afternoon. Because of the potential for the stronger winds to overlap with very low RH, the red flag warning will continue across the area today. At greatest risk will be areas of dense, grassy fuels, which will respond most quickly to the surge of dry air. Beyond today, very dry conditions will persist away from the coast on Tuesday, and we'll be watching locations far inland for another potential overlap of critically dry air and gusty winds, as stronger south to southwesterly winds develop. While these winds will begin to filter in more humid air and set us up for a trend to higher humidity late in the week, it will take some time to moisten the very dry air in place, particularly far away from the coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 58 35 72 52 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 61 38 73 57 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 61 52 72 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ163-164- 176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338- 436>439. Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ163-164-176- 177-179. Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from noon CST today through this afternoon for GMZ330-335. Low Water Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ335. Gale Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ350-355- 370-375. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355- 370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchs AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Luchs