FXUS64 KHGX 182325 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 525 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold front brings gusty this evening / tonight. Hazardous winds and seas expected in the bays and Gulf waters tonight into early tomorrow morning. - Seasonably cool conditions expected Friday. - Beyond Friday, expect a long stretch of warmer than normal conditions through the weekend and deep into next week. Record breaking warmth is possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1144 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 The current warm and humid air mass in place will be pushed out to sea by an approaching cold front. The front passes through our region this afternoon and evening. Gusty north to northeast winds are expected in its wake, along with falling temperatures. By Friday, expect seasonably cool temperatures with morning lows generally in the 40s and daytime highs in the 60s. But the seasonably cool conditions will be short lived due a gradual shift to an anomalous mid/upper ridging regime this weekend into early next week. The UL flow may be more zonal over the weekend, with the ridge coming into full force by early next week. So we continue to expect warmer and more humid than average conditions this weekend into early next week. The one slight change in the forecast is the addition of rain chances on Sunday across our eastern counties. As a cold sfc high plunges southward over the Great Lakes, a backdoor push of cold air may try to bring a frontal boundary close to our region on Sunday. Something to watch. Afternoon high temperatures this weekend into early next week should easily reach the mid/upper 70s. Some days could surpass the 80 degree mark. Thus, we can't rule out near record heat some days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 525 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 As a frontal boundary pushes through the region this afternoon, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the entire TAF period. This means that winds will pose the main aviation impact, specifically late tonight into early Friday morning. Low-level wind shear of ~40 kt (north-northeasterly) is anticipated generally between 00Z-12Z/Friday. At the surface, northerly to northeasterly winds will remain around or just over 10 kt through 06Z before tapering off. Gusty winds will prevail at GLS through the night with sustained winds around 15 kt and gusts around 25 kt through early Friday morning. Winds will be in the 5-10 kt range on Friday with a gradual transition from northeasterly to southeasterly by the afternoon. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1144 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 A cold front will push offshore this evening, bringing gusty north to northeast winds, building Gulf seas, and choppy to rough bay waters in its wake. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Gulf and Matagorda Bay. For most of Galveston Bay, winds are expected to remain just below advisory criteria. However, the lower portions of the bay are likely to reach advisory criteria at times. Wind gusts over 30 knots are possible behind the front. On Friday, winds decrease and quickly veer to the southeast, pushing warmer and more humid air towards the coast. This will increase the risk of sea fog, especially at night and in the morning, starting as early as Friday night and continuing through much of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 40 65 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 45 65 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 53 62 57 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Friday for GMZ330-350-355-370-375. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 9 PM CST this evening through Friday morning for GMZ330-335. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Self