FXUS64 KHGX 251130 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 530 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and humid conditions continue into the weekend. Temperatures will be in the vicinity of records, and a few isolated records may be tied or broken. - Through the weekend, expect nightly visibility reductions due to fog and sea fog, especially across the bays and coastal areas. The main threat for fog will be during the nighttime and morning hours. Afternoon fog should generally retreat offshore, but will quickly return to the coast towards sunset. - Strong cold front late Sunday night into Monday morning to bring much colder conditions Monday-Tuesday before gradually warming back up towards average heading into New Year's Eve. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1154 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 Then one foggy Christmas Eve, Santa came to say (ho ho ho) 'Rudolph with your nose so bright, Won't you guide my sleigh tonight?' And yes...I really did strongly consider just pasting the lyrics to Rudolph in here and calling it a discussion. It would be a surprisingly not too terrible summary! The primary focus of the first half of the forecast remains on the near-record heat, high humidity, and nightly episodes of dense fog in the area, with an extra emphasis on the fog near the coast and over the waters. This is...not really going to change very much in the short term, and will likely carry on through most of the weekend with little change. Now, we are still looking for the ridging in place to begin to break down modestly in advance of the next front, but we are still looking at ridging so strongly above climatologically normal this time of year that it's simply not going to change the environment very much. There is maybe a little more hope for fog (big emphasis on little). But with winds veering more to southwesterly this weekend before the front arrives, we will be getting winds that aren't as favorable for big intrusions of sea fog. And...that flow does generally tend to be not quite as saturated, which model fields kinda...sorta...imply Friday and Saturday night? It's not a real clear signal, so it's probably more likely that this may just modestly improve the fog situation rather than clear things outright, but after this many days of the fog machine, I'll take what I can get at this point. The price for this? Well, if we do get some modestly drier air moving in just above the deck for the weekend, that will mix down in the afternoon and help temps warm up a bit more efficiently in the afternoon. Again, given the lack of broad change in the environment, the impact will be modest, but we could see highs around or just above 80 degrees get a little more widespread on Friday and Saturday, and might be enough to pick off another record or two. Ultimately, nothing will change significantly, and the hot temps and fog threat will not be out of the picture until a whole new airmass comes into the region behind a cold front. And, fortunately, that's just what we're looking at happening late Sunday! As the front moves through, we can look for some scattered showers and perhaps even a stray storm along the front, but the big story here is the temperature change. All signs point to a big temperature shift with this front, and highs from Sunday (assuming the front arrives late enough to not mess with those highs) to Monday could be in the ballpark of 30 degrees! And that sounds really cold, until you remember where we're coming from. But with our heat perch so high to begin with, the resultant place we land at is something seasonably chilly, 5ish degrees below average. But whatever scours out the heat and humidity and gives this native Wisconsinite even a seasonable SE Texas stretch to end the year, I will take it! Of course, it's not just about magnitude, but also duration. Mid- level ridging, but well weaker than what we just experienced, should build in for the mid-week. As a result, Monday through Tuesday should be the chilliest part of the week for us, with a gradual warming trend keeping things right around seasonal averages to close out 2025 and open up 2026. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 530 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025 A mixed bag of LIFR to MVFR around the region early this morning with lower visibilities/ceilings closer to the coast. With light and variable winds over the next few hours, visibilities and ceilings are expected to continue on a gradual downward trend through 15Z before beginning to increase once again. Visibilities will improve before ceilings with MVFR ceilings lingering through 18Z everywhere except GLS. There may be a brief window of MVFR to VFR conditions at GLS in the early afternoon hours. However, based on the past several days, the sea fog rolls back in generally by 22Z. Another round of IFR/LIFR conditions are expected tonight into Friday morning once again. Elevated winds further north may make tonight's event more of a low ceiling event rather than fog, but dense fog is still expected to post an issue for terminals near and south of I-10. As far as winds go, light and variable winds this morning will become southerly to south-southwesterly around 5-10 kt with winds remaining a bit elevated going into tonight for northern areas. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1154 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 Fog has roared back across the nearshore waters and into the bays this evening, with dense spots seen on numerous webcams and observations around the coast. Light onshore flow will keep fog in the forecast through the weekend, with the best chance of widespread fog occurring after sunset, through the overnight hours, and into the morning. With winds shifting a little more towards southwesterly this weekend, the poorer fetch may help partially disrupt the fog machine...but with dewpoints not expected to decrease much along with the wind shift, this is probably more in terms of getting some better improvement in the afternoon, and will not be able to clear fog out on its own. No, the fog threat will not be ended entirely until a strong cold front pushes offshore Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing strong winds and building seas in its wake. Gales may occur on the Gulf waters, and will become the next weather focus after this fog event comes to a close. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 80 64 81 66 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 81 65 81 66 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 73 66 73 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ200- 210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ330-335-350-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchs AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Luchs