FXUS64 KHGX 050537 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1237 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, TROPICAL... .KEY MESSAGES... - Precipitation chances transition to the coastal waters through midweek as some drier air filters in to inland portions of the region. - Rain chances return during the second half of the week, mainly across southern parts of Southeast Texas, as a coastal trough becomes re-established offshore. - Hazardous marine conditions (winds/seas) are expected today and this evening, and then again later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026 Surface high pressure is giving the frontal boundary a slight nudge further offshore early this morning. This should bring some drier air and lower rain chances to much of the region through mid week. Exception would be right along the coast, and more so offshore, where the frontal zone and persistent coastal troffiness further south will provide continued chances of showers and maybe an isolated storm or two. Heading into midweek, higher pressure will lift further to the northeast and we'll see another mid level trof develop across northern Mexico and West Texas. The frontal zone and coastal trof offshore will drift back to the north. As this occurs, areas mainly south of the I-10 corridor and coastal areas will probably see another uptick in rain chances (and hazardous boating conditions) during the second half of the week. 47 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026 VFR conditions will gradually return NW to SE overnight and into the day tomorrow. VFR conditions have already returned to CLL and UTS, with VFR conditions expected at CXO by 08Z. There is uncertainty over how long MVFR cigs will last at IAH. Based on the latest HREF/NBM guidance, we decided to have VFR conditions appear by 10Z at IAH, but left in a SCT015 to hint at the potential for those MVFR cigs sticking around a bit longer. Since they are closest to the coastal moisture, the southernmost TAF sites have VFR conditions return by tomorrow afternoon/evening (19 to 23Z). Rain will likely remain offshore during this period, but storms could pop up near LBX and GLS during the evening and overnight hours. Winds will be NNE/NE during this period, with gustier conditions along the coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026 Cool front will sag further offshore tonight and Monday and bring stronger northeast winds and higher seas to the waters. Extended the SCA in the Gulf waters through the remainder of the afternoon Monday. Periods of rain will continue along the coast and offshore into Tuesday...more so in the Gulf waters. Winds and seas will slightly diminish toward midweek, but increase once again during the second half of the work week as a coastal trough and unsettled weather across the western Gulf tracks back northward toward the coast. 47 && .TROPICAL... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026 An area of low pressure is forecast to develop in the vicinity of the the Bay of Campeche toward midweek. NHC will continue to monitor this region for possible tropical development. Currently, there is around 50% chance of development. Wind shear appears like it could be fairly strong across northwest parts of the Gulf coast later this week, but let's keep an eye on things. Climatologically speaking, the southern, east central, and eastern portions of the Gulf tend to be more prone to seeing tropical systems in the month of October. Regardless of any tropical development...winds, seas and rain chances will increase in the local marine environment during the second half of the week with a coastal trough in place. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 84 65 87 65 / 0 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 86 71 88 71 / 20 10 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 86 78 86 78 / 20 30 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330- 335. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350-355- 370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...JMG MARINE...47