FXUS64 KHGX 212332 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 632 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Did you know that today is International Day of the Nacho? I don't think I need to explain any further that this is nacho typical AFD. While things won't change much in terms of noticeable weather, there are a couple of synoptic features worth mentioning. An upper level low transitioning eastward across the Central Plains today has continued to chip away at our amplified ridge overhead. However, with the center of upper level high pressure remaining generally over the northwestern Gulf/northeastern Mexico, we'll continue to see 500mb heights loaded in the 588-591 dam range through Tuesday. Although 850mb temperatures will be near the 90th percentile, it won't get quite hot enough to melt any cheese as we'll only see high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. We'll be able to squeeze out another chili night in the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods where temperatures will fall into the low to mid 50s. Elsewhere, we can expect overnight temperatures mainly in the upper 50s/low 60s. Oh queso, lettuce move on to Tuesday where the increasing low-level moisture along with slightly warmer 850mb temperatures adds a teensy bit more spice to the forecast. Expecting widespread temperatures in the upper 80s and it wouldn't be out of the question for some isolated spots to reach the 90°F mark. 90s in October?! We've bean there already quite a few times already this month! It'll be a relatively dry heat though, so your evening guacs should still be rather pleasant! Temperatures on Tuesday night will be a bit warmer as a result of the increasing moisture with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Another consequence of the increased moisture is the greater potential for patchy fog. This is most likely to occur in the 4am-7am CDT timeframe both early Tuesday morning and early Wednesday morning. Any fog that develops will dissipate by 8am CDT. It goes without saying that rain chances are still non-existent, which doesn't bode well for our ongoing drought situation. Two- thirds of Southeast Texas is in a moderate drought and the remaining one-third is abnormally dry. Yellow and orange colors are generally good on a plate of nachos...not so much on the drought monitor with rain chances slim to none for the foreseeable future. Batiste && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 This is now my third day on the long term desk and it's becoming difficult to find other ways of describing the same pattern. So let's keep it short and sweet. Wednesday-Sunday are expected to be warmer than normal with highs well into the 80s (some areas surpassing 90) and lows mostly in the 60s (around 70 at the coast and a few cool spots in the 50s in our northern counties). Unfortunately for our dried up lawns and gardens, there is no rain in the forecast. The only hope I have for you is that long range guidance along with the evolution of certain atmospheric teleconnections (examples MJO and AO) are hinting at a better chance of rainfall towards the end of October and into early November. But uncertainty is always high that far out. For now, brace for more dry and warm weather. Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Increasing low level moisture should allow for slightly higher potential for patchy fog early Tuesday morning. Confidence is higher for this at CXO, LBX, and SGR generally in the 09Z-13Z timeframe. Slightly reduced visibilities may pop up intermittently at additional terminals. Any fog that develops will dissipate by 14Z with south to southeast winds increasing as the day progresses. Some lower level scattered clouds will filter in late tonight into early Tuesday morning as well, but are not expected to have enough sky coverage to create any ceiling issues. Look for better chances of fog and possible low cloud formation Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. 42 && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Winds and seas will continue to decrease as the low-level pressure gradient eases. Relatively light onshore winds and low seas are expected Tuesday through Thursday. By the end of the week, winds may increase somewhat offshore. Self && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 57 88 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 60 86 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 71 81 70 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday morning for TXZ436>439. GM...None. && $$