FXUS64 KHGX 191835
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
135 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another temperate and dry day expected today, though warmer 
  than this past weekend.
 
- Marine conditions...a long fetch of moderate easterly winds may
  occasionally require intermittent caution or advisory flags.

- Temperatures continue to warm past today with the aid of high
  pressure near the surface and an omega blocking pattern in the
  mid/upper levels.

- Rain chances will also generally remain low, with some slight
  rain chances near Matagorda/Palacios area by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Today marks the start of a warming trend that will play out for the 
remainder of the work week. Today we can expect partly cloudy skies 
and afternoon highs in the upper 70s-low 80s, alongside overnight 
lows in the upper 50s-upper 60s, with coastal locations seeing the 
warmer portion of that range.

For tomorrow out through the remainder of the work week, long-range 
guidance indicates the formation of an omega blocking pattern in the 
mid and upper levels, which our region sits at the center of. This 
essentially means that high pressure will build over our CWA in 
those higher levels of the atmosphere, in addition to preexisting 
ridging near the surface providing relatively dry easterly flow. 
Therefore, conditions will likely be warm, dry, and sunny as the 
week continues, with daytime highs possibly reaching 90 by Friday.
There is a possibility of showers for Matagorda Bay overnight 
Tuesday into Wednesday morning as a surface trough moves westward 
into the Texas coast. However, PoPs for that area have decreased 
since the last forecast due to a southward shift in the trough's 
modeled position. Higher PoPs remain for our offshore waters for 
Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Peeking into this weekend, model guidance suggests an incoming 
mid/upper-level trough from the west will help shove this high 
pressure to our east, but significant uncertainty remains regarding 
timing of how long it will take to remove the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period with a few to sct mid 
to high clouds. E to ESE winds around 7 to 10 knots will prevail 
this afternoon, becoming slightly higher over the coastal terminals. 
Winds will become light and variable tonight, before increasing to 
around 10 kts mid-Tuesday morning.

JM 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds and seas around 3 to 5 ft will 
prevail this afternoon and tonight. A long fetch of easterly winds 
will continue to develop through at least Wednesday, resulting in 
elevated winds (10 - 20 kts) and building seas (around 3 - 7 ft). 
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution flags and/or Small Craft 
Advisories will likely be needed during this timeframe, especially 
for the Gulf waters. Winds and seas will weaken/subside late 
Wednesday, with favorable conditions persisting through late this 
weekend. 

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  58  82  55  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Houston (IAH)			  60  82  60  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)			  69  79  69  79 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for 
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JMG
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM