FXUS64 KHGX 061039
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
539 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- With more sun, temperatures will run above seasonal averages,
  though humidity will be somewhat lower.

- Can't completely rule out a brief shower or two, but best rain
  chances will be offshore.

- Hazardous marine conditions (winds/seas) are expected at times,
  more so toward the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

A prevailing low level east-northeast flow will persist across the
majority of the area with a broad area of high pressure situated
across the eastern CONUS - sending some recycled drier air into 
the region. Closer to the coast and further offshore, one cannot 
totally rule out some sct showers (better chances in the Gulf) in
association with a frontal zone and coastal trof in place.

We're still keeping an eye on the disturbed weather across the
southwestern Gulf. Guidance indicates this area may eventually
evolve into a tropical depression in the coming days. Though there
is some uncertainty in terms of the specifics...assuming it
follows model trends and climatology, the most unsettled weather
should remain offshore and areas to or east heading into the later
parts of the week. As always...let's continue to monitor things. 

Assuming any tropical shenanigans do end up being to our east, we
could see some even drier and slightly cooler air sag into the
area this weekend.  47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 534 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. A few to 
scattered mid to high clouds will prevail through the day with N 
to NNE winds around 5 to 10 knots, slightly higher along the 
coast. Winds will become light and variable later this evening.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Northeast winds will continue for the next several days...increasing
a bit heading into late week. Caution flags are flying in the 
Gulf waters. A tropical depression is likely to form within the 
next couple of days in the southwest Gulf. The system is expected 
to drift east-northeastward through the middle portion of the 
week before turning northward. Though there is uncertainty how 
everything will evolve and its final destination, guidance and 
climatology generally favor locations further to the east of the 
Texas coast. We will, however potentially see some increasing 
winds and swells later in the week and Small Craft Advisories 
appear likely. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  87  64  90  68 /   0   0   0   0 
Houston (IAH)			  90  70  91  72 /   0   0  10  10 
Galveston (GLS)			  87  78  87  79 /  10  10  20  20 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this 
     afternoon for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...47