FXUS64 KHGX 260602 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 102 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory continues Today. - Rain and storm chances increase slightly late tonight and Thursday across the region. - Low sea breeze storm chances continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 Another hot day is in store for SE TX as a ridge of high pressure continues to stretch across the state. We remain situated on the eastern periphery of the high, putting us in NW flow aloft. This NW flow aloft has been known to be a tricky setup forecast wise, and models handle it very poorly more often than not. So, while most models keep us dry through the afternoon and evening hours, I would be cautious to lean completely on that theory. Here's why: Low-level flow has been primarily onshore, and we see PWAT values begin to creep up into the 2" range (90th percentile) this afternoon and evening. Current water vapor satellite imagery shows a disturbance in the KS/OK/TX Panhandle area, slowly drifting SE. Outflows from these overnight storms could interact with the moisture and weak capping over the area this afternoon and result in a few thunderstorms over the Piney Woods/Brazos Valley area (something that would be too high of resolution for models to hone in on). Additionally, it appears that a weak front will slide south across east Texas, which will allow moisture to pool in the Brazos Valley and aid in storm development. Patterns of NW flow aloft have also been known to humble forecasters by having storms materialize when no storms are in the forecast and vice versa, so I cannot say with complete certainty that any storms will occur this afternoon and evening; however, increasing moisture and residual outflow boundaries have been enough to trigger storms in this pattern before, so I feel as though it is worth a mention. Temperatures this afternoon will remain toasty as highs creep into the 100 degree range inland and heat indices in the 107-109F range. The aforementioned "front" will continue a southward progression Thursday. Unfortunately this front will not bring a cooldown, merely a wind shift. As it continues southward and moisture pools out ahead, the front will serve as a trigger for scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Will need to continue to monitor the potential for another Heat Advisory on Thursday; however, increasing cloud cover and scattered precipitation may allow us a brief break from this. Heat and humidity return on Friday as the ridge builds back into the area. This will keep highs in the upper 90s and heat indices in the 105-108 degree range through the weekend. A weak disturbance in the Gulf will approach the Upper Texas Coast this weekend into early next week, bringing daily chances of showers and thunderstorms and a potential decrease in daytime highs. Bailey && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 The area remains mostly VFR with a few stray showers up in the northern counties. These have not yet reported rain, but will be monitored as they move S across the area. Winds begin to decrease during the overnight before shifting from southerly to SSW in the morning. Brief increased cloud deck is also possible at this time between 10-14z, but not enough to impact CIGS. in the later afternoon winds are anticipated to shift back to SSE nearing the end of the TAF period. CMW && .MARINE... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 SW winds will prevail this mornings today and Thursday, transitioning to light to moderate southerly flow in the afternoons. Thunderstorm chances will increase Thursday afternoon into Friday. Seas of 1 to 3 feet are expected. Bailey && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 100 77 101 78 / 10 0 0 20 Houston (IAH) 99 79 100 80 / 10 0 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 90 83 90 82 / 10 0 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bailey AVIATION...CMW MARINE...Bailey