FXUS64 KHGX 211000
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
500 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions expected through early next week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible during the second
  half of the week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

High pressure continues to dominate the local weather pattern 
this week, with warm and dry conditions and light easterly winds 
persisting for the next several days. Tonight into Wednesday, 
however, we have a temporary increase in moisture for our 
southernmost counties. A plume of elevated PWATs (between ~1-1.8")
creeps up towards the coast tonight and pushes to our west 
through Wednesday. These elevated PWATs provide more cloud cover 
and humidity than any rain chances, and we could see slightly 
elevated temperatures for the southern portion of our region (mid 
80s). Our northern counties remain under the drying trend and thus
won't see as warm a day as our southern counties will (low 80s). 
By Wednesday evening, that dry northern air will move further 
south, decreasing surface PWATs to less than 1 inch for much of 
the region. The relative humidity in the afternoons will lower 
into the mid 20s to lower 30s percent range, which could lead to 
elevated fire weather conditions. 

The dry weather pattern persists through the weekend, with 
daytime heating steadily rising into the mid 80s with a few places
(mostly south of I-10) trying for the upper 80s before next week.
Low temperatures are seasonably chilly, generally in the 50s to 
60s. Our next chance for rainfall could be next Tuesday, when GFS 
has a stark theta-e gradient push through our area. We're still 
far enough out that this could easily change, but long-range 
models have generally been hinting at a weather-shift towards the 
end of this month and into November. Until then, we embrace a 
warming trend that is at least not so humid.

BSM/Cotto 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance) 
Issued at 500 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

BKN to OVC clouds around 3500-6000 ft are currently enveloping
areas including and south of CXO early this morning. However, VFR
conditions are prevailing and are expected to continue to prevail
throughout the TAF period. These clouds will gradually push out
southwestward later today and eventually leading to clear skies 
by this evening. There are a few showers mainly around Matagorda 
Bay early this morning, but this activity will remain west of all 
area terminals. Expect light northeasterly to easterly winds 
around 5-10 kt today with winds becoming light and variable after 
sunset.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Winds and seas will continue to relax throughout the night, with 
the Small Craft Advisory falling off at 1 AM on Wednesday. 
Afterwards, still in our long fetch of easterly winds ~15 kts, 
Caution Flags may be needed through Wednesday morning. Seas 
diminish throughout the day and subside to 2-4 ft by Wednesday 
evening. Rain offshore diminishes on Wednesday and PoPs are 
negligible through the weekend. 

BSM/Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  83  55  83  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Houston (IAH)			  84  58  84  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)			  77  64  77  63 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this 
     afternoon for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BSM
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...BSM