FXUS64 KHGX 082320 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 620 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Wet weather will continue into Mother's Day weekend with a risk of flash flooding and some strong to severe storms. - Lull in rainfall on Saturday night/early Sunday with a cold front pushing off the coast that night into early Monday. - High pressure and calmer weather throughout much of the upcoming work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 113 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026 Current satellite imagery still shows a shortwave trough over Northern Mexico approaching the western edge of Texas with derived PWs around 1.4-2.0 inches. Already had our first round of showers/storms pass through SE Texas earlier today with some light showers still persisting over the area at the time of writing. Even though CAMs performance hasn't been ideal per previous shifts, the slew of short-range guidance suggests the potential for some additional rounds of storms this afternoon and overnight as weak impulses continue to funnel over the area aloft. Broadly this environment is progged to contain ~40 knots of 6km shear with bulk shear upwards of 50 knots. 3km SRH reaches 150-250m2/s2, decent though still on the low end with storms more elevated in nature until the warm front is able to lift back up through the area. Instability is rather low, with SFC CAPE around 500-100 J/KG and midlevel lapse rates peaking at 6.8-7.4 DegC/km. Drier air in the midlevel, but still very saturated in the lower levels with a deep warm cloud layer of around 13,700 ft. CAPE profiles in forecast soundings are also very slim, and overall seem better coded to heavier rains. Model guidance shows several higher-end bullseyes for rainfall, with some loose clustering closer to the coastline and east TX/W LA. One aspect that makes the forecast tricker is a line of convection coming from the north overnight into Saturday in conjunction with another shortwave to the west. Timing differences may lead to a slew of different outcomes for how such features will interact, though broadly this window looks a little more promising for SVR wx with deeper instability aloft. Overall, portions of SE Texas are outlooked for a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) of Severe Weather today & Saturday, along with Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall today. All severe hazards are still on the table with these storms, mainly winds and hail. Heavy rainfall also remains a concern as well. Many areas could see less than an inch of rainfall due to light showers/low coverage. Some spots with stronger storms could see totals near 1-3 inches, with isolated higher totals upwards of around 4-5 inches possible. Should see a lull in rains some time around Saturday night into portions of Sunday as the shortwave aloft pushes off to the east. Onshore flow should be back in place, though only briefly. A deeper upper level low over Ontario/Quebec is progged to push a cold front through SE Texas Sunday night through early Monday. Anticipate another round of showers/thunderstorms along the front as it makes it's way off the coast. Monday should see breezy, cooler and drier weather as high pressure fills over the area in the wake of the cold front. A mid to upper level ridge will also build across the Four Corners region, ushering in a period of benign weather through the next several days. This ridge aloft should shift easterly, along with surface high pressure, allowing onshore winds to return around Tuesday night. This will allow moisture to rebuild as temperatures rise through mid week. Highs should be in the upper 70s/80s with lows in the 60s/70s. 03 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026 Late this afternoon, only a couple of showers are present east of all of the terminals. MVFR to IFR ceilings remain in place for most terminals, but expect IFR ceilings to become widespread overnight. Model guidance indicates fairly good potential for LIFR ceilings between 09Z-15Z/Saturday. Cannot entirely rule out visibilities decreasing to less than 1-2SM during this timeframe as well due to fog. This timing also coincides with the first round of showers moving in from the north. Model guidance remains a bit uncertain on the exact timing and placement, but the highest confidence window for rainfall looks to be in the 10Z-15Z timeframe Saturday morning for terminals near and north of I-10. Ceilings will take a while to lift...only becoming MVFR by around 17Z then VFR around 19Z-20Z. Another round of showers looks to develop in the mid to late afternoon as well (after 20Z), mainly near and south of I-10. This portion of the forecast is a bit more uncertain, but we cannot rule out some embedded thunderstorms in both the early morning convection and the mid to late afternoon convection. Winds will remain light and variable throughout most of the forecast period. For terminals near and south of I-10, east- southeasterly winds will become prevalent around 5-8 kt on Saturday afternoon. Ceilings look to trend towards MVFR/IFR late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 113 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026 Onshore winds return this afternoon as a warm front lifts north into SE Texas. Could see a few hours of elevated winds across Galveston bay, but otherwise light to moderate winds will continue through Saturday. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible now through the weekend. Storms could produce higher winds, seas and lower visibility from heavier rainfall. Anticipate a lull in rainfall, around Saturday night into Sunday. A cold front should push off the coast around Sunday night or early Monday morning, bringing another round of showers and storms. Moderate northeast winds are expected after the front, decreasing and shifting southeasterly Tuesday night. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 69 83 68 86 / 40 30 10 10 Houston (IAH) 72 84 72 88 / 40 50 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 75 82 76 84 / 30 40 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...03