FXUS64 KHGX 060439 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1039 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 326 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2024 Even with the strong surface high building down into the Lower Miss- issippi Valley (to the E/NE of the CWA) tonight, a much cooler/drier airmass will continue to filter into the area overnight. This should lead to decreased POPs, but overcast skies are going to persist over the southern half to two-thirds of the CWA tonight. This uncertainty regarding the clouds could have some impacts on overnight lows...and so if skies remain on the clearer side, locations in the Piney Woods could fall to at/near freezing overnight. Otherwise (and elsewhere), look for lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s. For tomorrow, the more pronounced onshore flow developing at the mid levels overrunning the continued light CAA (NE/E winds) at the sur- face will help to keep clouds in place across much of the CWA. This will also keep daytime temperatures on the cool side with highs only reaching the mid to upper 50s. No significant rain chances tomorrow per the very limited return of Gulf moisture, but we could see this change by late tomorrow afternoon/evening (as a swath of deeper PWs begin creeping towards the Middle TX Coast from the Gulf). So cannot really rule out some isolated to widely scattered showers moving in- to our SW counties/Matagorda Bay region at that time. These low POPs will increase and spread inland by tomorrow night (from 20 to 50%). Lows tomorrow night will remain cool...with readings near 40 for the Piney Woods...lower 40s for the Brazos Valley...mid to upper 40s for the rest of the CWA. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 326 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2024 The weekend is still looking wet. The coastal trough/low will be moving northward up to and across our area. This system and its boundaries in combination with deepening moisture levels (precipitable water values surging toward 1.50 to 1.75 inches) and a developing low-level jet will bring periods of showers and possible thunderstorms to much of the area, especially in the Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon time period. The highest expected rainfall totals with this event have lowered a bit and shifted off to the east, and we are now anticipating around 1/2 to around 1 inch near and to the west of the I-45 corridor, and around 1 to around 2 inches near and to the east of the I-45 corridor. Locally higher amounts will be possible. This event will gradually come to an end from west to east beginning Sunday evening. A strong cold front should move through the area some time on Monday night. High temperatures will be warming Saturday through Monday (highs Saturday in the 50s/60s, highs Sunday in the 60s/70s and highs Monday in the 70s to close to 80). Monday night's cold front cools the area back down (highs on Tuesday in the 60s and on Wednesday in the 50s). Low temperature changes will not be as wide ranging as the highs. Saturday night will be in the mainly in the 40s/50s, Sunday night will be mainly in the 50s to around 60 and Monday night (behind the front) will be in the 40s/50s. There are still some indications of possible freezing overnight lows up north on Tuesday night (say around and especially north of the Huntsville area) with better chances coming Wednesday night (say around and to the north of the Conroe area). 42 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1038 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the end of the TAF period, although skies may likely stay BKN/OVC for much of the period. NE winds around 08-12 KTS will continue tonight and become ENE at 10-14 KTS on Thu. GLS/LBX may see stronger winds and occasional higher gusts tonight into Thu. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 326 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2024 Increasing north to northeast winds and building seas can be expected through the end of the week. Over the weekend, winds will swing around to the southeast and south. Winds and seas will remain elevated, and also look for increasing shower and storm coverage. The best potential for rain and storms will come Saturday night through Sunday evening. Fog is possible too during periods of lighter winds and no rain. A weak front will decrease rain chances Monday, but a stronger cold front moves across the area Monday night. Strong north to northeast winds and building seas will develop in its wake. Small craft will need to exercise caution and stretches of small craft advisories can be expected through much of this forecast period. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 39 54 41 51 / 0 20 50 80 Houston (IAH) 41 56 44 56 / 0 10 30 70 Galveston (GLS) 46 58 51 68 / 0 10 30 70 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Friday for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST Friday for GMZ350-355-370- 375. && $$ SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM....Adams AVIATION...Cotto (24) MARINE...Adams