FXUS64 KHGX 181832 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 132 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front this afternoon and evening. Localized downpours will be possible, which could result in instances of minor flooding in urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas. - Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into early next week. - Hazardous Marine Conditions: Moderate to strong northeasterly winds and building seas are expected Saturday night through Sunday evening following the passage of the cold front. Gusts to gale will be possible. - There will be a moderate to high risk of strong rip currents along all Gulf-facing beaches through at least the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026 Frontal boundary is currently making its way through the northern Metro area. Showers have begin popping up just ahead of it. Expect activity to increase as we go into the afternoon hours. Dynamics do look favorable for a few stronger storms. CAPE values are expected to exceed 2000 J/kg this afternoon with shear values around 40-25 kts, both of which could lead to more organized storms that would have the potential to create gusty winds and some hail. In addition to those hazards, PWAT values closer to the coast are running high (values around 2.0"), which will contribute to heavy downpours with some of those storms. This could lead to isolated instances of flooding, particularly in urban and low-lying areas and areas with poor drainage. WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for portions of southeast Texas. HRRR seemed to have a good handle on this morning's events that occurred to our west, and has so far continued to initialize well. So, using that model--looks like we will see activity really bubble up closer to 3 PM across the Metro and Coastal Plains as the front slows down during its approach to the coast. Expect showers and storms to continue through the evening hours, transitioning to primarily showers during the overnight hours, heavy downpours will still be possible with some of the overnight showers. A reinforcing front will bring the drier cooler conditions into the area from NW to SE overnight into Sunday morning. Additionally, expect winds to increase during that time through Sunday afternoon with gusts to 20-25 mph inland and up to 30 mph along the coast. Cooler weather will continue through Monday night with daytime highs in the low 70s and overnight lows in the 40s (isolated spots in the upper 40s further north). A gradual warming period will take place through the remainder of the week with highs in the mid 70s on Tuesday and reaching into the mid 80s by the end of the week next week. Next chance of rain is set for Monday night into Tuesday as an upper- level low moves through the area. PWATs expected to increase to above 1.5" during that time, so may see another round of heavy downpours with some of those showers. WPC has an area along and south of a line from just south of College Station stretching over to Galveston Bay in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. With this event still a few days out, please make sure to monitor the forecast for any changes. Bailey && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 617 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026 MVFR cigs will prevail for much of the TAF period at all terminals. Scattered SHRA will begin to develop late this morning near CLL/UTS/CXO then spread southward during the afternoon to all other terminals. TSRA will be possible at CLL/UTS/CXO along a cold front, and have included PROB30s for these terminals from roughly 18-22z. Farther south, confidence in TSRA is higher and have now converted the PROB30s to TEMPOs in this cycle. Behind the front, winds sharply turn from southerly to northerly and become gusty with gusts of 20-25 kt. SHRA will also continue for several hours behind the front. Some reduction to IFR is possible near the coast as well. Near the end of the period, cigs will begin to rise to VFR at the northern terminals with SHRA ending. However, MVFR cigs and light SHRA will likely continue through 12z at LBX/GLS. Young && .MARINE... Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026 While light to moderate onshore flow will continue through Saturday afternoon, a drastic change in conditions is expected Saturday night into Sunday following the passage of a cold front. This front is expected to push through the coastal waters Saturday evening into Saturday night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop Saturday afternoon/evening ahead of the front with showers lingering through early Sunday morning due to lingering moisture behind the front. Isolated downpours and gusty winds will be possible with any thunderstorms that develop. Strong north to northeasterly winds are expected to develop behind the passage of the cold front. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Bays Saturday evening into early Sunday afternoon due to expected wind speeds of 20-30kt with frequent gusts to gale (around 35kt) during the late night/early morning hours. The highest wind gusts will likely occur near the Bay entrances. A Gale Watch has been issued for the same timeframe for the nearshore waters where winds of 25-30kt with frequent gusts to 35-40kt possible. A Gale Warning has been issued for the offshore waters. Very rough bay waters and seas of 5-8ft in the nearshore waters and 7-10ft in the offshore waters are expected. While the gale conditions are expected to end early Sunday afternoon, there will be elevated winds and seas through late Sunday. Winds veer through Monday with onshore flow expected by Monday night. Beach Forecast: There is a high risk of strong rip currents along Gulf-facing beaches through Saturday. There will also be increased wave run-up and elevated tides through Saturday (high tides running around 3-3.3ft above MLLW). Elevated tides are expected to return early next week as the onshore flow returns. Fowler/Bailey && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 51 74 54 / 60 70 0 10 Houston (IAH) 83 56 73 57 / 70 80 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 80 60 73 67 / 50 90 30 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ330-335. Gale Watch from 9 PM CDT this evening through Sunday afternoon for GMZ350-355. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bailey AVIATION...Young MARINE...Bailey