FXUS64 KHGX 080108 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 808 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered seabreeze showers and thunderstorms expected on a daily basis through early next week. - There is a chance of more numerous showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and/or Monday. - Seasonably hot with highs in the 90s and heat index values 101-108F each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026 The forecast is looking a lot like the month of August, with afternoon high temperatures in the 90s and moderate to high humidity. There is a daily risk of shower/thunderstorm activity for most of the forecast period, though there will be some day to day variation in PoPs. So let's jump right into it by first looking at the large / synoptic scale. Water vapor imagery shows a somewhat amplified pattern over North America, with a ridge over W CONUS, some troughing over the Midwest and Mississippi River Valley, and another ridge over the Atlantic near E CONUS. The SE Texas atmosphere is feeling the influence from the both the ridge to the west and the trough over the Mississippi River Valley. Ridging is dominant enough to prevent widespread convective initiation. But it's also weak enough to not prevent convective initiation. Already, we have some shower/thunderstorm activity firing up near the coast. We'll likely see this activity push inland with the sea breeze boundary. Saturday appears similar, though with PoPs extending a little farther inland that what we have today. As we head into the Sunday-Tuesday time frame, the aforementioned trough erodes, as the overall pattern across CONUS becomes more zonal. That being said, the two ridges (W CONUS ridge & Atlantic ridge) remain in place, while a weakness in the ridge lingers across the Midwest and Mississippi River Valley. This will support a steering current regime that takes whatever is in the Gulf towards Texas/Louisiana. Fortunately, we don't have any tropical concerns. But we do have a mid-level trough and associated plume of deep tropical moisture in the eastern Gulf. This pattern will push the moisture plume in our direction, which could increase shower/thunderstorm coverage by Sunday or Monday. However, there is disagreement in the guidance regarding the exact trajectory of the moisture plume. ECMWF deterministic / ensemble guidance suggest the heart of the plume pushes into SE Texas, bringing a pretty good chance of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. The AI version of the ECMWF also appears quite moist. The GFS deterministic/global/AI guidance has been drier, throwing the bulk of the PWAT towards Louisiana. That being said, the most recent GFS guidance is trending a little wetter. So I'm not going to be surprised if the current PoPs need increasing if the latest trends continue. Ridging is expected to build over our region as we head into the middle to latter park of next week, suggesting a lower PoPs and hotter temperature regime. Thus, you'll notice a rise in the temps and a decrease in the PoPs when you look at your location specific forecast. Perhaps the lone wild card is a mid/upper disturbance the guidance is throwing towards Mexico / deep south Texas. If that disturbance could track a little farther north, then we could have higher PoPs at the end of next week. For now, daily PoPs beyond Tuesday are very low. Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 757 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026 VFR conditions expected for much of the TAF period, with the exception of MVFR cigs and reduced visibilities (from patchy fog) developing Sat morning from 10-14Z. Cigs will lift and scatter out and fog (if any) will burn off shortly after 15Z. Winds will be shifting from S-SW to S-SE Sat afternoon, with speeds around 08-14 KTS. There's also the potential for iso-sct showers and storms in the afternoon. IAH, HOU, CXO, and SGR are the most likely sites to be affected by these storms. Expect VRB and gusty winds, lightning, and periods of heavy rain with these storms. Rain chances decrease in the evening as diurnal heating decreases and the environment becomes more stable. Look for clearing skies and winds gradually decreasing early Sat night. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026 Generally light to moderate south to southeast winds are expected through the middle of next week. Gulf seas should average 2-4 feet. There will be a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms through early next week. Shower / thunderstorm activity could become more widespread on Monday, though there is a little uncertainty regarding how much the coverage will be. Late next week is generally looking drier and hotter. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 95 75 95 / 0 10 10 10 Houston (IAH) 78 94 78 95 / 0 30 10 30 Galveston (GLS) 82 91 82 90 / 10 20 20 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...Cotto MARINE...Self