FXUS64 KHGX 280055 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 755 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - There will be a moderate to major heat risk daily through early next week. Peak heat index values between 102-107F (39-42C) through Tuesday. - High rip current risk along area beaches through the weekend. - Low to moderate rain chances return towards the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Water vapor imagery late this morning reveals a stout upper trough across the Desert Southwest and a shortwave over the Ohio Valley. Upper level ridging in place aloft will keep us mostly dry over the next few days. Latest CAMs are hinting at some very isolated activity tomorrow, generally along the sea-breeze. However, not too confident in this outcome as we will see increased subsidence and an influx of some drier air from a plume of Saharan Dust that will arrive through the weekend. Rain chances increase into the 20-40% range by the middle of next week as the ridge lifts northeast, opening the door for a few upper level impulses to rotate around the southern periphery of the ridge. The main concern continues to be the warm and humid conditions across the region. High temps will warm into the low to mid 90s. There won't be much relief at night as lows only fall into the mid 70s to low 80s. Heat indices should remain just below advisory criteria, generally 105-107 degrees. This will pose a moderate to major heat risk across southeast Texas. The latest probabilistic heat risk guidance hints as a low (10-15%) chance for some locations to experience an extreme heat risk daily through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 740 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 VFR conditions will persist through the evening into the overnight hours. There will be a modest relaxation in winds overnight which could allow for some MVFR ceilings to develop by early morning Sunday, especially to the north and west of Houston. Any sub-VFR ceilings that do develop will quickly mix out through the morning into the afternoon as southerly to southeasterly winds increase again to 12-18 kts with gusts approaching 25-30 kts. McNeel && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Moderate southerly winds and 3 to 5 foot seas will prevail through the weekend. There is a high risk of rip currents along area beaches through Sunday morning. Rain chances will remain very low through early next week...increasing to the low to medium range by mid-week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 95 78 96 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 79 94 79 95 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 84 89 84 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...TC AVIATION...McNeel MARINE...TC