FXUS64 KHGX 090618 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 118 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Expect increasingly warm and humid conditions as the week progresses. - Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms persist into next week. - Strong rip currents possible along Gulf-facing beaches this week. - Monitoring the potential for strong to severe storms early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026 Daily rain chances continue through the long-term period as moisture availability continues to increase in response to the return of onshore flow. Thursday's rain chances will be further aided by a developing coastal trough. Best chances for rainfall lie west of I- 45 where moisture is more focused. Not seeing as strong of a signal for morning activity. HREF shows more isolated to scattered activity popping up in early afternoon (likely due to daytime heating). As for Friday, an embedded shortwave trough will contribute to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. 500 mb heights still look to increase through the day, leading to some subsidence; however, also seeing some 500 mb pulses of energy riding along and south of I-10 across the Coastal Plains. That being said, expect showers to win the battle against subsidence for portions of southeast Texas (likely south of I-10). Ridging is expected to move off to the east for Saturday, providing a shot at precipitation for areas further west of I-45. Lower end chances expected elsewhere. An LLJ and corresponding jet streak may provide further lift, and with the available moisture, may see some of these showers and storms produce locally heavy rainfall. As a result, WPC has placed the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for Sunday. As the ridge moves east, an upper-level low will push into the Plains from the Pacific NW early next week. As it does, a dryline is expected to set up in western Texas. Furthermore, a surface low is expected to develop on the lee side of the Rocky Mountains. This will position southeast Texas in the warm sector of the surface low. All that to say...we have plenty of moisture and instability and a nearby mid-level jet, so looking at the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms early next week. SPC has already placed portions of the Brazos Valley and Piney woods in a 15% chance of severe weather for Tuesday (and with it being pretty far out, I suspect that probability will change and the area will shift). In any case, as we get into next week, it is important to stay up to date on the forecast for the latest details. Bailey && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026 Present southeasterly winds are expected to drop off after sunset with speeds returning to around 5 to 6 knots. Continued trends in the CAMs are expecting low-level moisture to increase during the overnight period, which will likely result in MVFR ceilings for multiple sites as we near sunrise. Patchy fog is also something that can't be fully ruled out with best chance currently at our western taf sites. Otherwise, conditions should start to return to VFR by the late morning with a low (10 to 20 percent) chance of storms that afternoon. Scoleri && .MARINE... Issued at 117 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026 Light to moderate southeasterly winds occurring tonight. Small Craft should exercise caution through Friday morning. Another result of the increased onshore flow is the increased risk of strong rip currents along Gulf-facing beaches towards the end of the work week and going into the weekend. Expect wave heights to increase as well due to an extended fetch of easterly to east- southeasterly winds stretching to the eastern Gulf brings a swell of elevated seas. Seas expected to peak in the 4-7 ft range in the Gulf waters through the weekend. Winds further increase over the weekend and into early next week. Small Craft Advisories cannot be ruled out. Daily chances for showers and storms will persist going into next week, but these chances peak late Thursday into Friday as an upper level disturbance pushes through the area. Elevated winds and seas could occur in and around thunderstorms. Bailey && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 82 65 80 66 / 20 10 60 20 Houston (IAH) 82 68 80 68 / 20 20 70 10 Galveston (GLS) 76 70 76 71 / 20 30 70 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Friday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bailey AVIATION...Scoleri MARINE...Bailey