FXUS64 KHGX 221929 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 229 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat continues through this evening with dangerously heat indices across all of southeast Texas. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through 8 PM. - Scattered showers and storms are possible late this afternoon and early evening. Some storms may become strong to severe, capable of producing strong gusty winds, heavy downpours and frequent lightning. - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Upper Texas coast and adjacent waters through early Friday. Tropical Storm Bertha is forecast to weaken as it approaches southeast Texas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Dangerous heat, a few strong storms and the potential impacts of Tropical Storm (TS) Bertha are the main weather concerns across Southeast Texas. Hot and humid conditions will continue across the region this afternoon due to the influence of a building high pressure to our west and TS Bertha over the north-central Gulf. Forecast soundings continue to indicate afternoon highs in the upper 90s to low 100s across all of Southeast TX today. Not only that, but increasing moisture due to the proximity of Bertha will also contribute to dangerous heat indices of 108 to 115 F through early this evening. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for all of Southeast Texas through 8 PM this evening. We will continue to monitor the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. A band of storms associated with the northwestern fringe of TS Bertha could potentially reach our region. Dry air aloft, combined with hot conditions will result in deep boundary layer mixing over the next few hours. In fact, soundings also suggest decent steep lapse rates through the evening, with DCAPE running into the 1000-1200 J/kg range. With that being said, a few downbursts capable of producing strong gusty winds and brief heavy downpours cannot be ruled out through late this evening. SPC has placed a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather for most of SE TX today. The next concern is the potential impacts of the weakening TS Bertha Thursday into early Friday. As of early this afternoon, the center of Bertha made landfall in St Bernard Parish, Louisiana. Bertha is moving west-northwest around 7 mph. Latest data indicate that Bertha is gradually weakening, with maximum sustained winds remaining near 45 mph with higher gusts. As Bertha moves westward into the southeastern coast of Louisiana/northwestern Gulf today and Thursday, atmospheric conditions will continue to be unfavorable for future strengthening as the storm encounters strong wind shear, increasing subsidence from high pressure to our west, and deals with land interaction along the central Gulf Coast. Therefore, Bertha is expected to weaken and become more disorganized as it approaches our region. The current forecast has Bertha approaching late Thursday morning or early afternoon as a weak Tropical Storm, before becoming a Tropical Depression once it makes landfall. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Bolivar Peninsula, Brazoria Islands, Chambers, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal Galveston, and Galveston Island, as well as the coastal waters from High Island to Freeport from 0 to 60 NM. Regarding potential impacts for Southeast Texas, Tropical Storm- force wind gusts can be expected under the Watch area with gusts up to 40 to 45 mph. Highest probabilities are expected along the immediate coast and coastal waters from High Island to Freeport. Elsewhere in Southeast TX, little to no impact is anticipated. Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms can also be expected through the day; however, the threat of flooding rain is low. For marine and beach conditions: elevated winds and building seas up to 7 - 8 ft can be expected. Tropical storm-force winds up to 40 knots are possible offshore as early as this evening through early Friday. There will also be a high risk of rip currents along all Gulf-facing beaches. Significant coastal flooding is not expected at this time, but minor coastal flooding and wave run-up at the beach are possible, especially during times of high tide. Higher probabilities are north of Port Bolivar. Please, remain weather aware and prepared, especially if you are under the Watch area. Continue to monitor the latest forecast for any updates on Bertha at www.hurricanes.gov and weather.gov/houston. Friday through early next week... Depending on the eventual track and intensity of TS Bertha, a few showers/storms will be possible on Friday. Otherwise, hot weather continues as the mid to upper level ridge strengthens over the central CONUS through the weekend. Heat headlines will likely be issued late this weekend into early next week as temperatures rise into upper 90s to low 100s, with peak heat indices up to 110F. JM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will be light and VRB through Wednesday evening, turning west to northwest by the mid morning hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon, after 20Z and may impact coastal and metro terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions throughout the rest of the period. Davis/Bailey && .MARINE... Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 ...A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the coastal waters from High Island to Freeport from 0 to 60 NM, including Galveston Bay through early Friday... Light to moderate west to southwest winds and seas around 2 to 4 ft will prevail through at least early Thursday. Elevated winds and building seas can be expected as early as Thursday morning as Tropical Storm Bertha moves over coastal waters/Upper Texas coast during the day. Bertha will be moving across the coastal waters as a weak Tropical Storm, bringing tropical storm-force wind gusts around 30 to 40 knots, with the highest probabilities offshore. Bertha is expected to become a Tropical Depression once it makes landfall in the late morning or early afternoon. Potential marine impacts include elevated winds, and building seas of 6 to 8 ft (occasionally higher seas possible). Beach conditions are expected to deteriorate later tonight into at least Friday. A high rip current risk is expected along all Gulf-facing beaches. While significant coastal flooding is not anticipated, minor coastal flooding and wave run-up at the beach are possible, especially during times of high tide. The highest probabilities of these conditions are expected to be north of Port Bolivar. Please, continue to monitor the latest forecast updates and be prepared. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 81 96 78 94 / 20 0 20 10 Houston (IAH) 83 95 80 94 / 30 40 50 20 Galveston (GLS) 84 91 83 90 / 50 70 40 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Tropical Storm Watch for TXZ214-337-338-437>439. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164- 176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338- 436>439. Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday morning through Friday morning for TXZ436>439. GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ335-355-375. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for GMZ350-370. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Bailey MARINE...JM