FXUS64 KHGX 141120 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 620 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scatter to Widespread showers/storms early this week. Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall Tuesday through Thursday. Ponding on roadways and street flooding will be possible. - Hot weather returns during the second half of the week with highs in the upper 80s/90s and heat indicies in the 90s/triple digits. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Starting to see a few showers pop up along the coastal areas where ample moisture and a pocket of deep moisture convergence reside. Expect this activity to increase in coverage as the early morning hours progress and continue through late morning/early afternoon. Models currently have activity winding down as the afternoon progresses, likely as the atmosphere becomes worked over from the morning showers and storms. With PWAT values still in the 2.0" range, low pressure overhead, and vorticity maxima sweeping through, expect some of these showers and storms to produce locally heavy downpours. Once again, SE Texas is in a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall per WPC. This will be the case for most of SE Texas Wednesday and Thursday as well. Rainfall totals through tomorrow night will be in the 1-3" range once again; however, storms with heavier downpours could bring isolated totals of around 3-7". Ponding on roadways and street flooding could occur, especially in urban areas and low-lying areas with pour drainage. Remember, turn around, don't drown! Rain chances taper off Thursday as ridging builds in overhead. Conditions will gradually heat up going into the weekend with highs in the upper 80s/90s. Consequently, the combination of heat and residual moisture will result in heat indices in the upper 90s and triple digits as we get into the weekend. While most of the area will remain dry during the latter part of the week, we could see some showers and storms pop up along the afternoon sea breeze as well as streamer showers during the overnight into early morning hours. Bailey && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 SHRA/TSRA will affect all terminals through the next 4-6 hours. Within the TSRA, IFR/MVFR cigs are likely for the northern terminals (from IAH/DWH northward) with VFR cigs south. Occasionally, LIFR cigs have been observed at a few sites, but this should cease after 12z. After 17z, most of the TSRA will transition to SHRA, then end around 21z at all sites. VFR conditions are expected thereafter, except for CLL where some MVFR cigs sneak in toward the end of the period. For IAH, some TSRA may redevelop after 15z, but more likely after 18z Wednesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 S to SE winds around 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected throughout the week. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through mid-week. Some occasional strong storms could produce locally higher winds, seas and reduced visibility from heavy rainfall. Rain chances decrease Wednesday and taper off into Thursday, though isolated streamer showers will remain possible during the overnight and early morning hours. Bailey && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 82 72 85 72 / 90 20 50 20 Houston (IAH) 81 75 86 76 / 90 20 50 10 Galveston (GLS) 87 83 89 84 / 80 20 30 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bailey AVIATION...Young MARINE...Bailey