FXUS64 KHGX 302352 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 652 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and mostly dry weather will continue for the rest of the work week. - A cold front will bring slightly increased rain chances to the entire region late Saturday or Sunday. - Next week's outlook features seasonably hot and humid conditions with isolated afternoon showers and storms near the coast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 This week's weather can largely be characterized by three words: wash, rise, repeat. Today is no exception with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values between 105-108 in most locations. Similar to the past couple days, a modest seabreeze circulation is expected to develop off of the Gulf and Galveston bay that could provide just enough low-lovel convergence to initiate isolated showers this afternoon. A complicating factor to generating precip today, compared the the previous couple days, is the development of a localized mid-level high overtop of Southeast Texas based around 700 mb. Staunch subsidence aloft may end up squashing all shower development, but we kept the 20% PoPs in the forecast since the potential is still there. The risk of thunderstorms is even lower, less than 10%. The increased subsidence is also helping reduce the coverage of diurnal cumulus, which will likely nudge afternoon highs a degree or two higher than yesterday's values. The aforementioned mid-level high is forecast to wash out this evening as a stronger mid- and upper-level high to our northwest starts to break down. We will still be under a localized area of mid-level confluence, and therefore we have lowered PoPs tomorrow along the seabreeze circulation to below 15%. Temperature and heat index values tomorrow will be similar today. It's worth noting that we do not plan to issue a heat advisory since the heat index at most locations will remain below our advisory threshold of 108. Despite this, we're still forecasting heat index values between 100-108 through Saturday. At the end of the day, the human body and an animal's response to heat does not vary much between 107 and 108...therefore proper heat safety messaging and precautions should continue to be taken regardless of the presence of an advisory or not. As alluded to above, the mid-level high that has been dominating the local weather pattern this week will break down as a trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. This will allow for a rare summertime cold front to advance as far south as the I-10 corridor late Saturday or Sunday. Before the front arrives late Saturday, compressional warming ahead of the front should result in another day of temperatures in the upper 90s, with a few locations peaking in triple digits. The overall risk of sites meeting or exceeding 100 is lower than previously indicated, but most locations in the forecast area have a 20-30% of reaching triple digits on Saturday. After FROPA, it will still be hot but dew point temperatures will be several degrees lower. This will be most evident for areas in/near the Brazos Valley where some upper 50s dew points will filter into the region on Sunday. The front will also bring increased rain chances, but I wouldn't get your hopes too high since PoPs are generally only 20-30%. The lower PoPs with this forecast update are largely a function of frontal timing. Most of the current guidance indicates nocturnal FROPA, therefore all forcing for ascent will be brought by the front itself. If the front is able to speed up or slow down and move through with basically any diurnal heating, expect PoPs to increase. Unfortunately, a majority of the energy associated with the front will move east quickly, meaning the front will become stationary Sunday and wash out by early next week. Next week's pattern looks to be more typical for this time of the year with a steady fetch of southerly flow moving inland from the Gulf with seasonal temperatures, triple digit heat index values, and daily rain chances along seabreeze fronts. Bonnette && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 651 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 High pressure continues to bring VFR conditions with S-SW wind throughout the period. Winds become light and variable overnight but strengthen throughout the day on Friday with potential for 15-20kt gusts in the afternoon. MVFR CIGs are possible in the early morning as we saw today at our northern terminals but would burn off by late morning. An isolated SHRA with the afternoon sea breeze could occur but confidence is too low to include it in the current TAFs. BSM && .MARINE... Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Light to moderate southwesterly winds and 2-3 foot Gulf seas are expected today and tomorrow. Southwesterly flow will increase this weekend to around 15-20 knots, possibly higher at times. Seas may increase to around 4 feet, with Caution Flags likely. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also forecast Saturday night and Sunday. The outlook for early next week features light to moderate southwesterly winds, 2-3 foot seas, and isolated showers and storms along the sea breeze boundary each afternoon. Bonnette && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 99 76 97 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 78 98 79 99 / 10 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 82 91 82 93 / 0 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bonnette AVIATION...BSM/JM MARINE...Bonnette