FXUS64 KHGX 030149 AAA AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 849 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Closely monitoring weather for the the Independence Day with increased heat stress expected. - Hot Weather continues with peak heat index values reaching 100- 110F (38-43C). - Daily rain chances. Light streamer showers possible in the morning, then scatters/isolated storms during the afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026 The broader synoptic pattern has not changed significantly across SE Texas. A robust ridge is still situated across the Tennessee-Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic region today, with midlevel heights upwards of 596-597 dam (around the the-the climate percentile). On Friday, this ridge will shift eastward and weaken, with heights decreasing and slowly meshing into the broader tropical high to the south on Saturday, which amplifies to around 591-592 dam this weekend. Though, southeast Texas is still expected to remain on the peripheral of both these ridges, with midlevel heights remaining around 590-593 dam (~70-the climate percentile) and 850mb temperatures around 18-21C (~70-the climate percentile). With this persistent onshore flow and WAA we'll continue to see hot weather across SE Texas for the foreseeable future. Rain chances will vary from day to day, though, with some weak impulses passing aloft, no strong capping and onshore theta e advection, there can certainly be some occasional showers and thunderstorms. This is most likely to manifest as spotty streamer showers over the Gulf early in the morning, then as some scattered/isolated showers and thunderstorms in afternoon near the coast along the sea breeze. As noted yesterday, low level lapse rates are also very steep, nearly dry adiabatic at 8-9 DegC/km, so any pop up storms could produce some modest downbursts at least, though not particularly strong. In general, hot weather continues with highs in the 90s and triple digit heat indices ranging from 100-110F (38-43C). WBGT values indicate that heat stress on the human body will be high, possibly reaching extreme in spots during the afternoon. There will be daily chances of rain, possibly as light streamer showers over the Gulf/Coast in the morning and maybe some pop-up showers/storms in the afternoon, especially along the sea breeze. Independence Day is this Saturday, and as many of you have likely heard, it will be the Semiquincentennial (the anniversary) of the founding of the United States of America. Outdoor events and celebrations for this milestone will likely draw in massive crowds, thus extra care was put into the July 24th forecast, specifically with regards to heat stress. Heat index values these last few days have generally remained under 108, mainly as a result of modest afternoon mixing lowering humidity. The NBM generally struggles with this mixing, so I've adjusted dewpoints down slightly in the afternoon, generally keeping to the higher-end observed values from our ASOS stations (as to not mix out too much). Model guidance has been pinging temps to be generally higher on Saturday. Yesterday NBM was a tad too cool in spots, so I've increase highs slightly to compensate, closer to around the the percentile in the NBM. The pressure gradient does weaken on Saturday, and thus winds become very calm in the morning through the early afternoon. Timing/intensity of the sea breeze can be tricky to pin down on day 3 (since it falls beyond the cams), thus to error on the side of caution, I mixed in some NBM 13th percentile to simulate a slower & weaker afternoon sea breeze. Cloud cover is another parameter that can be difficult to narrow down beyond the 48 hour high-res window, though this current synoptic pattern has tended to produce few-scattered q-fields in the afternoon. Model vorticity and UV are both especially weak on Saturday, in addition to NBM guidance trending lower on PoPs for the 24th as well. With this in mind, I've opted to lower cloud cover slightly (in addition to capping PoPs around 10%). The culmination of all these changes still produces highs in the 90s and heat indices around 101-109F for the the Independence Day. The resulting Wet Bulb Globe Temperature values are forecasted around 86- 91 between 12PM-6PM. Resulting heat stress on the human body is forecasted to be high (level 3/4), reaching extreme (level 4/4) in a few isolated spots. Extra emphasis on the *isolated spots* portion, as the spatial & temporal scale of those extreme values is small (mostly within the Houston metro between 2-4PM). In layman's terms, it'll feel a warmer than the typical summer days as of recent, though not dramatically different. Despite more conservative heat projections, the current forecast doesn't suggest a need for heat headlines at this moment, though that could change with the next forecast cycle. Regardless of whether or not a heat advisory is issued, it would still be wise to practice heat safety. If you plan to spend the day outdoors, make sure you wear light cloths, apply sunscreen and stay hydrated by drinking plenty of water. Heat is the #1 weather-related killer in the U.S. each year, and often people greatly underestimate it's danger. Even if the heat isn't advisory-strength, more people outside means that more cases of heat illnesses will likely emerge as a result. 03 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 848 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026 Afternoon storms are on the decaying phase of their with most activity wrapping up across all terminals by 01Z. Thereafter, we return to VFR conditions. Light winds return overnight. Latest guidance brings MVFR CIGs back for inland locations, especially KDWH/KCXO. Further for terminals further to the south, FEW/SCT MVFR CIGs may be accompanied by brief patches of fog, but any reduction in VIS will be short lived through 14Z. S'ly winds then return along with the threat of additional seabreeze storms. Latest hi-res guidance keeps most of the activity closer to the coastal zones. Given the low confidence in the extent of these storms further inland, I have elected to keep the mention of TSRA/SHRA N of Texas Hwy 35, but we will have to monitor the overnight model runs to see if the next TAF package will need to append any rain/TS wording. In the afternoon, SE-SSE winds pick up to 7-12 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026 Light S/SE winds around 10 knots and calm seas of 1 to 3 feet are expected throughout the next several days. Light streamer showers could develop over the Gulf waters each morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop along the sea breeze in the afternoon near the coastline and bays. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 95 77 96 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 77 95 78 96 / 20 10 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 83 90 82 90 / 20 20 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Enriquez MARINE...03