FXUS64 KHGX 092344 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 544 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloudy and cool for the next couple days with some chances of mainly light rain. - Cold front is expected Wednesday night followed by drier cooler weather for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 136 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 A cool start to the workweek with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s early this afternoon. The combination of passing shortwaves aloft (in response to an approaching upper-low) and a surface trough extending over the Deep South, along with a decent amount of low level moisture have led to widespread light to moderate showers with a few thunderstorms across portions of SE TX. This activity will continue to move across the region from southwest to northeast this afternoon, before gradually tapering off this evening. With drier air filtering in from the northeast, most of the activity generally north of Conroe will remain very light. In terms of rainfall amounts, around 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain has fallen across our southwestern counties, with some locations close to 1.5 inches in Jackson and Wharton counties. Additional rainfall totals should remain less than a quarter of an inch through this evening. Mostly cloudy skies and cool weather continue on Tuesday as the aforementioned upper low finally moves over the region and lifts northeast into the Mississippi Valley through the day. Additional rounds of light rain can be expected, with the best chances remaining along and south of I-10. With passing shortwaves aloft and deep convergence lingering at the surface, showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue on Wednesday, again with the best chances over the coastal counties. A cold front is progged to enter the region late Wednesday through Thursday, followed by a building ridge over the western CONUS. Drier conditions with near normal temperatures can be expected through at least Saturday. Highs will generally remain in the 70s, with the lows generally dropping into the 40s!... Ridging aloft weakens as a trough slides across the Plains late this weekend. This will result in the return of rain chances across the region late Saturday through early next week. JM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 541 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 SHRA / -SHRA will impact the southern half of the region this evening and tonight, with more isolated -SHRA farther north. Deterministic guidance suggest we'll have a mostly VFR night, with occasional sub-VFR during times of SHRA. But REFS forecast soundings suggest the potential for more sustained low-end MVFR late tonight into tomorrow morning. For now, we show borderline VFR / MVFR overnight, with lower end MVFR conditions in TEMPO groups between the 08-12Z time frame. There may be another round of SHRA late overnight and into the morning hours near the coast. Tomorrow features lower rain chances. But there may still be isolated SHRA on Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 136 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 Light to moderate northeast winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft will continue through late this afternoon, particularly for the Gulf waters west of Freeport and near showers. Winds will continue to weaken this evening and persist through late Wednesday. Moderate winds and building seas are again expected early Thursday in the wake of the next frontal passage. A few light showers are possible through midweek, with the best chances on Wednesday. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 54 74 57 79 / 20 10 10 10 Houston (IAH) 56 76 60 79 / 20 10 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 65 74 66 75 / 20 20 30 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ330-350-370. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Self MARINE...JM