FXUS64 KHGX 240529 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1229 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible over the area this afternoon and evening... possibly overnight too. - Gradual warming trend with temperatures reaching into the upper 80s to lower 90s by this weekend. - Above normal temperatures continue during the early to middle part of next week, with at least isolated showers and thunderstorms possible over portions of the region each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Warm and potentially active weather is still expected today. Zonal mid level flow will be in place over the area with SFC CAPE from around 1700-3500 J/KG and 500mb shear around 30-45 knots. Several disturbances & impulses are expected to pass through the southern Plains, some of which may pass through SE Texas this afternoon to tap into this favorable instability. Upper levels are also showing a strong diffluent right over the ArkLaTex area around this time period as well, in tandem with a surface trough & dry line spanning from around the Red River Valley to near Del Rio. Forecast soundings show some drier air between 850mb-500mb, though weak capping and steep midlevel lapse rates of 8.0-8.7 DegC/km should more than enough to make up for that, with particularly deep CAPE in the hail growth zone as well. CAMs don't show particularly extensive coverage in storms over our area, though given the environment it is entirely possible that this is being underdone. SPC has SE Texas under a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk of severe weather for Today. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main severe weather concerns. Extra emphasis on the hail, as SPC also has portions of the the Brazos Vally/Piney Woods areas denoted for hail intensity of CIG 1, suggesting greater potential for 2-inch size hail. Time wise, these severe storms could develop during the afternoon and evening. Additionally, we'll need to keep and eye over our north/northeast zones as well, as forecast models are also showing a MCS developing over northeast Texas/ArkLaTex in the evening. While CAM guidance thinks these storms should dissipate before entering our CWA, it is certainly possible that this convective systems holds together long enough to clip portions of Texas overnight, as we've seen in other patterns with some component of northwest flow in the upper levels. Saturday is shaping up to see broadly similar conditions to Friday. Some northern displacement in forcing features aloft should prove less favorable for severe weather, though it won't outright remove the threat. Previous convection, outflow, and mesoscale interactions from the day prior will likely modify the potential for showers/storms & severe wx as well. Regardless, it's worth keeping a close eye on too. Sunday continues to see this broader trend of lowering PoPs and a northeasterly shift in the main risk area for severe weather. While rather far removed on Sunday and even more so on Monday, these days will still feature fairly potent conditions for severe weather. Even in spite of low pops, we'll still be keeping an eye out for any rogue impulses or shortwaves that could jump start more potent wx, especially during those afternoons. For next week, a much more robust shortwave trough is still expected to fill northeast across the Plains, sending a cold front towards SE Texas. This front should slow and stall around the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods, though some isolated showers and storms are still in play for our northern zones. A subtropical mid-level high then builds in from the south on Tuesday, establishing more zonal flow aloft and allowing for another series of shortwaves and impulses to move over SE Texas. Anticipate daily rain chances through late next week. 03 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 554 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 MVFR CIGs will fill in from the coast this evening with IFR CIGs possible in a few spots during the early morning hours of Friday. CIGs scatter out by the afternoon with VFR conditions and southerly winds prevailing throughout the day on Friday. Cannot complete rule out some isolated showers/storms, mainly north of the I-10 corridor, but otherwise chances and coverage are very low, thus excluded from the TAF. MVFR CIGs should begin to fill in again Friday night. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Light to moderate southeasterly winds should continue through the next several days. A long fetch of these southeasterly winds may bring increased seas at times. This with periodically higher winds may warrant caution flags at times. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the weekend. Above normal water levels near 3.0 feet MLLW are still expect at each high tide cycle through the end of the work week. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 86 70 89 71 / 20 20 10 0 Houston (IAH) 86 73 89 73 / 20 20 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 81 74 83 75 / 10 0 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...03 MARINE...03