FXUS64 KHGX 210508
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1208 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions expected through early next week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible during the second
  half of the week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

High pressure continues to dominate the local weather pattern 
this week, with warm and dry conditions and light easterly winds 
persisting for the next several days. Tonight into Wednesday, 
however, we have a temporary increase in moisture for our 
southernmost counties. A plume of elevated PWATs (between ~1-1.8")
creeps up towards the coast tonight and pushes to our west 
through Wednesday. These elevated PWATs provide more cloud cover 
and humidity than any rain chances, and we could see slightly 
elevated temperatures for the southern portion of our region (mid 
80s). Our northern counties remain under the drying trend and thus
won't see as warm a day as our southern counties will (low 80s). 
By Wednesday evening, that dry northern air will move further 
south, decreasing surface PWATs to less than 1 inch for much of 
the region. The relative humidity in the afternoons will lower 
into the mid 20s to lower 30s percent range, which could lead to 
elevated fire weather conditions. 

The dry weather pattern persists through the weekend, with 
daytime heating steadily rising into the mid 80s with a few places
(mostly south of I-10) trying for the upper 80s before next week.
Low temperatures are seasonably chilly, generally in the 50s to 
60s. Our next chance for rainfall could be next Tuesday, when GFS 
has a stark theta-e gradient push through our area. We're still 
far enough out that this could easily change, but long-range 
models have generally been hinting at a weather-shift towards the 
end of this month and into November. Until then, we embrace a 
warming trend that is at least not so humid.

BSM/Cotto 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. A disturbance 
over the Gulf is progressing west into the Lower Texas Coast and 
will bring BKN/OVC decks between 040-060 tonight, mainly for areas
near and south of I-10. These decks could stick around through 
the mid morning hours. A few showers could make it into the 
coastal areas during the night hours as well. NE winds will be 
light tonight, strengthening to 5-10 KTS by Wed morning. Winds 
could briefly shift more E Wed afternoon or evening. 

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Winds and seas will continue to relax throughout the night, with 
the Small Craft Advisory falling off at 1 AM on Wednesday. 
Afterwards, still in our long fetch of easterly winds ~15 kts, 
Caution Flags may be needed through Wednesday morning. Seas 
diminish throughout the day and subside to 2-4 ft by Wednesday 
evening. Rain offshore diminishes on Wednesday and PoPs are 
negligible through the weekend. 

BSM/Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  54  83  55  83 /   0   0   0   0 
Houston (IAH)			  61  84  58  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)			  68  77  64  77 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday afternoon 
     for GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ370-375.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday afternoon 
     for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BSM/Cotto
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...BSM/Cotto