FXUS64 KHGX 251829 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 129 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly drier conditions remain over the area through Monday. - Weak upper level disturbances and increasing Gulf moisture will bring low-end chances for showers/storms Tuesday onward. - Moderate onshore winds and building seas will result in Caution conditions over the marine waters through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026 An upper ridge remains in place across SE TX this afternoon. Meanwhile, we continue to remain under the influence of a large surface high over the southeastern states which is ridging westward across Texas. Another surge of drier air at the low levels is moving in from the east today, with dewpoints down to the 50s area wide this hour. Temperatures are also running slightly cooler compared to the last couple of days. Drier air will continue over most of SE TX through Monday with PWs of 0.5 to 1.0 inch, below normal for this time of year. Did adjust NBM surface dewpoints significantly lower tonight/Monday blending in the HRRR solution. Mins tonight will drop to the mid 50s to lower 60s inland, upper 60s to lower 70s coast. This new surge of drier air will be short-lived. The subtropical jet will become more active with a series of weak upper level shortwaves passing across Texas this coming week. As a result, the upper ridge that has been over the area the last several days will begin to shift eastward and flatten out early this coming week. The first of the shortwaves will move across the southern Plains Mon night/Tuesday. Deeper moisture will return to the middle TX coast region starting Monday night with PWs increasing to around 1.6 inches which is above the climatological norm (1.1-1.25 inches). This deeper moisture will spread further east and inland Tuesday/Tue night. Will have slight chance to chance POPs in the forecast southwest half of the area Tuesday and most areas Wednesday. QPF does not look that impressive with probabilities in the ensemble solutions of 0.5 inch or more of QPF in 24 hours running 30-40 percent. We should see a brief period of drying/lower PWs again Thursday in the wake of the first shortwave exiting the southern Plains. A more robust surge of low level moisture will return to the area starting Friday and lasting through early next week with surface winds veering to the south and southeast as well. PWs will increase to 1.8-2.0 inches. Surface dewpoints will climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s area wide this weekend resulting in very muggy/humid conditions. Temps will climb to above normal levels as well, with max temps around 10 degrees above normal and min temps around 15 degrees above normal. Will have low POPs blanketed across SE TX Friday onward as weak shortwaves pass across TX and deep moisture remaining in place. The majority of GFS/EC ensemble solutions show light QPF next weekend, but probabilities of an inch or more in 24 hours are running only 5-10% right now. Ensemble guidance trends cooler with temps next week, however there is still no solid agreement on a the timing of either a significant front or a significant rainfall event. If it seems like it's been dry lately, well it has been. A couple of examples: only 0.02 inch of rain has fallen at IAH since October 2nd, and only 0.03 inch of rain has fallen at CLL since October 4th. The majority of SE TX is in moderate to severe drought, with the coastal counties and western zones most heavily impacted. 35/Moreland && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026 VFR conditions will persist through this TAF cycle. Throughout the afternoon, TAF sites along and south of I-10 will see sustained E/SE winds of 10-15 kts due to an enhanced pressure gradient, with LBX and GLS likely seeing gusts beyond 15 kts. Winds become calm and VRB during the evening and overnight hours, with the exception of GLS maintaining E winds of 8-10 kts. There is a possibility of patchy fog and MVFR vis for the northern TAF sites tomorrow morning, particularly at CXO, but current model confidence remains too low to include them in this TAF package. Winds once again increase out of the E/SE by mid-morning tomorrow, with IAH and TAF sites south of it seeing sustained winds of 10-15 kts. JMG && .MARINE... Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026 Moderate easterly flow will continue over the coastal waters through early next week in response to the large surface high over the southeastern states. We will keep the Caution flags in place with winds of 15-20 knots expected and seas 3-5 feet, possibly reaching 6 feet over the far offshore waters. Will need to monitor trends closely and may need to bump up to an Advisory if the winds or seas trend upward. Little change is expected through midweek. Toward the end of the week, winds will veer more to the southeast, with both winds and seas subsiding somewhat. Expect isolated to scattered showers and t-storms each day through the coming week as moisture increases. Locally higher winds/seas could occur. 35/Moreland && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 56 83 61 80 / 0 0 0 20 Houston (IAH) 62 84 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 69 82 71 82 / 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late Monday night for GMZ350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...35 AVIATION...JMG MARINE...35