FXUS64 KHGX 231835 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 135 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tomorrow, mainly south. - Hot temperatures continue through the weekend. - Rain chances increase next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026 A weak boundary continues to hang out in the area, and will be here for a couple more days, but it isn't going to do much in the way of noticeable changes to our weather as mid-level ridging remains in place overhead. What we can expect is a few diurnally driven showers/storms today with abundant moisture in place in our near coastal counties, mainly along and south of I-10. Satellite derived PWAT values are between 1.8 and 2" in this region, which is a bit above normal for this time of year. The deep moisture combined with daytime heating should be able to fire off a few convective bits this afternoon, though so far activity has been less than previous days. Rain chances are lower tomorrow, though an isolated shower along wherever the boundary lies would be possible. Mid-level ridging collapses/drifts south over the weekend with shortwaves beginning to rotate through the area by Saturday afternoon. Deep moisture levels are below normal Saturday, so convection is not expected. We will see a gradual increase in moisture Sunday into early next week which will start to bring up our rain chances. Early in the week this will be mainly driven by mid-level shortwave and daytime heating, but later in the week there is some potential for a cold front moving toward the area. Models have been hinting at this for a little while, so don't think it's a random figment of the models imagination. Guidance is pretty well in agreement of a solid trough digging down into Texas all the way through the upper levels. It's too early to put too much into the front, but at least we should get some good moisture pooling for early to mid-week to bring medium to possibly high chances for convection, and the increased rain chances and cloud cover would likely bring temps back to normal at least. For the rest of this week and the weekend we'll keep above normal temperatures, in the mid and upper 90s. Heat index values will top 100 most days through Tuesday, but could have a brief reprieve Friday if the drier air can filter in behind the boundary. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026 VFR conditions to dominate the forecast period. Winds are light generally out of the NE, transitioning to E/SE by this afternoon and strengthening to between 5-10kts. We're under high pressure which is stifling widespread convection with this afternoon sea breeze. We still anticipate isolated SH/TS, but confidence is low on exact location, resulting in no PROB30s for any TAF site. Keep in mind winds associated with any afternoon storms could gust between 15- 20kts and lower CIGs and VIS to MVFR conditions. Isolated rain chances dissipate by 00Z Thursday and winds become negligible by around 02-03Z. A weak front pushing into our region tonight and into Thursday will pick winds up from the ENE Thursday morning between 5- 10kts. Coastal sites like GLS could have stronger winds between 10- 15kts. The weak front primarily brings drier conditions, limiting Thurdsay's rain chances. BSM && .MARINE... Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026 A few showers and storms are possible this afternoon south of a weak boundary in the area. A weak to moderate east to northeast flow will persist through Friday, with winds turning more southeast over the weekend and early next week. Gulf seas are expected to average generally 2-3 feet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 97 71 95 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 79 95 73 93 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 83 91 82 89 / 10 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH AVIATION...BSM MARINE...PH