FXUS64 KHGX 171822 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 122 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - High pressure remains in control through the week, resulting in dry and warmer conditions with light southerly winds. - A significant warming trend Friday into the weekend. Some locations may see the first 90-degree days of the year. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026 We started off very cool this morning with temperatures as low as 25 degF across portions of Houston County, and in the upper 20s to low 30s generally areas north of I-10. Surface high pressure continues to dominate the weather today with light winds and dry conditions. A few high clouds will continue to stream southeastward across the region in response to some vorticity maxima/shortwaves aloft. Precipitation is not expected. A tranquil and cold night is anticipated, though it won't be as cold as early this morning. Overnight lows will be in the 40s inland and in the 50s along the islands. A mid to upper level ridge will amplify over the southwestern CONUS late tonight into Wednesday, dominating the pattern for the rest of the workweek. This pattern will result in dry weather with a gradual warming trend into the weekend. By Friday into Sunday, this ridge of high pressure will expand eastward, bringing the ingredients for well-above average temperatures. Westerly to southwesterly flow aloft, combined with south to southwest surface flow will keep warmer conditions across Southeast Texas. In fact, 850 mb temperatures will rise into the upper teens to low 20s degC Friday and Saturday. Both, NAEFS and GEFS show 850 mb temperatures close to the 99.5th percentile of climatology for areas west of I-45. This gives us increasing confidence in surface high pressure in the upper 80s to low 90s. If this forecast verifies, it will be the first 90- degree temperatures of the year. This is early, as climatologically speaking, in average we see the first 90-degree days in late April (CLL) or early May (IAH). We'll continue to monitor this trend as temperatures may be near or breaking records Friday and/or Saturday. A dominant upper-level ridge and surface high pressure will continue to block incoming strong frontal systems. Therefore, we can expect little to no rainfall over the next 7 days. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026 Light winds will veer southeast today. Winds occasionally gusty near the coast. VFR vis and cigs to prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026 Benign marine conditions with light to occasionally moderate easterly winds and low seas. Surface high pressure will continue to move east of the region today, resulting in south to southwest winds tonight that will persist through the rest of the week. Winds may become moderate at times this weekend. Little to no rain is anticipated over the next 7 days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026 Despite weaker surface winds, dry weather continues today, leading to minimum relative humidity in the upper teens to low 20s inland and in the 30s along the coast. The Texas A&M Forest Service suggests high to very high fire danger today for most of the region. Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning, especially around the Matagorda/Palacios areas. Conditions will gradually improve through the week as southerly flow brings higher relative humidity values. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 63 42 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 63 47 76 54 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 60 54 69 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Low Water Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ335. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Self MARINE...JM