FXUS64 KHGX 301157 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 557 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Front and associated showers and storms are moving off the coast early this morning. Much colder and breezy conditions are expected today. - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all coastal waters. - Chilly weather is in store for the first half of the week with overnight lows dropping into the 30s and 40s across the area - with some spots in the Piney Woods possibly dropping to freezing Monday night. - There will be additional rain chances through the week: Monday into Monday night, and Wednesday night through Thursday night or Friday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 942 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 The anticipated cold front is knocking on our door and is expected to pass through the area overnight. There is a line of showers and strong thunderstorms currently extending along a ling from B/CS through Lake Livingston that is producing gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall (radar indicated rain rates of 1-3" per hour). This line is slowly moving southwards, but is expected to pick up speed as the cold front catches up to it. Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely to form ahead of the cold front late tonight across the coastal areas and persist until the front moves through. FROPA timing from the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region is between 11pm and Midnight, the I-10 corridor between 2-4am, and then off the coast by 4-6am. Like we are seeing currently across the Brazos Valley to Piney Woods region, some locally heavy rainfall is possible tonight across the area as the front moves through. Grounds are fairly dry, which will help alleviate flooding concerns, so minor flooding in areas of poor drainage will be the primary concern - however, cannot out rule an instance or two of flash flooding if heavy rainfall repeatedly moves over the same area. One area to watch tonight will be the Woodlands area as they received 1-2" of rain already from storms earlier today. A north wind is expected through the day on Sunday with gusts to 20-25mph expected through sunset. With temperatures on climbing into the low to mid 50s and overcast skies expected, its going to be a fairly chilly day. Some isolated showers are possible along the coast through the morning due to lingering moisture. The mostly cloudy skies overnight will keep temperatures from dropping too far low Sunday night with minimum temperatures likely staying in the low to mid 40s across much of the region. A weak upper- level disturbance will slide across the area on Monday bringing additional chances of scattered showers (mostly light rainfall, but some embedded pockets of moderate rainfall cannot be ruled out). With temperatures only climbing into the upper 40s to mid 50s on Monday, this will be a pretty cold rain. A reinforcing cold front moves through late Monday ushering in even colder (and much drier) conditions. Overnight lows Monday night and Tuesday night will be in the 30s north of I-10 (with some spots in the Piney Woods dropping to near freezing), and low to mid 40s down to the coast. High temperatures on Tuesday will be similar to Monday, but add on a few degrees. Wednesday will be warmer thanks to the return of south- southeasterly winds with highs temperatures in the low 60s to low 70s, and lows in the low 50s to low 60s. Another passing disturbance on Thursday will bring additional rain chances for the second half of the work week. Guidance is a bit uncertain on exact timing, but could see the return of some rain showers as early as Wednesday night with activity continuing through late Thursday or early Friday morning. Fowler && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 557 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Front has pushed off the coast. Lingering light rain from the metro area southward will mostly taper off in the next few hours. We should see gusty north winds today and a mix of ceilings...from VFR in the Brazos Valley, to MVFR in the metro, and prevailing IFR likely along the coast. Ceilings will trend downward overnight back into, or close to, IFR areawide as southerly winds just above the surface transport some overrunning moisture in advance of an upper level disturbance approaching from the west late tonight and Monday. Look for some scattered light pockets of rainfall to develop after midnight...increasing in coverage Monday as it passes through. There could be an elevated tstm or two closer to the coast and offshore as well. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 942 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 A cold front is approaching the area from the north and will pass through the coastal waters late tonight into early Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of and along the cold front, with some isolated strong storms capable of producing heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. The front is expected to pass through the Bays around 5-6am, the nearshore waters between 6-8am, and then through the offshore waters by the late morning. This front will usher in a strong northerly winds of 20-25kt with gusts to 30kt likely and to 35 kt possible. These winds will persist through Sunday night for the Bays, and into Monday morning for the coastal waters. A Small Craft Advisory is already in effect for the offshore waters due to lingering seas of near 7ft, and then the rest of the waters begin at 6am for the strong northerly winds behind the front. The SCA continues into Sunday night for the Bays, and through Monday morning for the coastal waters. However, this may need to be extended into Monday afternoon depending on lingering gusty winds. Another disturbance is expected to bring widespread showers and storms Monday into Monday night with a reinforcing cold front pushing through the coastal waters Monday night. Additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed for moderate to strong north to northeasterly winds behind this front Monday night into Tuesday. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 48 41 49 37 / 10 30 60 20 Houston (IAH) 53 44 53 41 / 60 30 90 40 Galveston (GLS) 63 51 60 48 / 90 40 90 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ350-355-370- 375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fowler AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...Fowler