FXUS64 KHGX 111035 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 435 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warning today for the Brazos Valley due to low RH, dry fuel, and gusty southerly winds. - Look for a gradual warming trend along with higher humidities the rest of the week. - Next weather system approaches Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1230 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 Look for a fairly rapid modifying trend to begin today and tonight as high pressure moves off to the east and southerly winds resume. This will bring back some increasing dewpoints and RH's to the area and some warmer temperatures as we head into midweek and beyond. We'll still have mid-upper ridging in place during the work week keeping rain chances low-nil, but with the higher dewpoints returning we might see some late night and early morning patchy fog to deal with across some inland locations during the second part of the work week if the overnight winds drop off enough. The next upper trough will dig down the West Coast then kick out to the ENE across the Desert Southwest this weekend and into the Plains by Monday. May see its associated surface trof/front sag into parts of the region later Sunday and Monday bringing us our next shot of rain. Better instability looks like it may be situated north of the region, but we'll keep an eye on how guidance evolves as the week progresses. 47 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 435 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, so only a wind forecast. Southerly winds will pick up this afternoon with 10-15 kt sustained winds and 20-25 kt gusts. Expect winds to gradually subside going into the evening/overnight hours. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 Winds will swing back around to the southeast today as high pressure departs the region. Though water levels will gradually be recovering, northern parts of the bays may see one more round of low water conditions around the next low tide cycle late in the day and early this evening. The pressure gradient will tighten and wind speeds will gradually increase as the day progresses. Caution flags may be needed in the offshore Gulf waters as early as tonight. Moderate southerly flow will prevail into the weekend. The next weather system is expected to move into the region Sunday into Monday. Best overall instability should generally be situated to our north, but we'll keep an eye on the trends as the week progresses. 47 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 Low humidities, dry fuel, and some gusty southerly winds are anticipated across portions of the area later today. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the Brazos Valley where the lowest RH's (around 25%) and highest winds (15-20mph) should be co- located. Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated elsewhere, except maybe the immediate coast. Heading into Wednesday and beyond, we'll see higher humidities work their way inland as southerly winds transport some higher dewpoints into the region from the Gulf. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 72 52 81 59 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 73 56 81 62 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 72 65 78 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ195>198-210>212. GM...Low Water Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CST this evening for GMZ335. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...47