FXUS64 KHGX 151201 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 601 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A storm system will bring multiple weather hazards Sunday - There is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms today in our coastal and marine areas. - Heavy showers and thunderstorms may result in localized flash flooding today, especially near the coast. - Strong marine winds expected through Monday. Gales Warning in effect for Galveston Bay and the Gulf waters. Small Craft Advisory in effect for Matagorda Bay. && .UPDATE... Issued at 601 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 Lead shortwave that brought areas of light rain overnight is pushing ewd into Louisiana. There is a zone of low level convergence near the coast where we're seeing moderate rain along the beaches in Matagorda and Brazoria Counties that have produced 1-3" so far. Attention turns to the next batch of rain across north and north-central TX will be making its way across the region during the day today. Overall model trends have been more progressive...so although some localized heavy downpours can be anticipated, continued sewd movement should somewhat limit the excessive totals. The warm sector probably won't make it too far past the beaches which should also help in terms of rain total inland. But still concerned about the coastal counties where totals should be highest. Keep in mind that tide levels are up, so drainage will be slow. I bumped up the start time of the Gale Warnings for our eastern waters (Galveston Bay and adjacent Gulf) to begin immediately. HRRR has been consistently showing the gradient tightening faster...and we're seeing that in current observations with 30-37kt already showing. Look for these speeds to increase further by mid morning. Still anticipating the highest speeds this evening and tonight when some 45kt gusts can't be ruled out over the waters. 47 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 A variety of weather hazards will effect southeast Texas on Sunday. A mid/upper low is currently pushing into the Texas Panhandle and drifting eastward towards Oklahoma. A strengthening and increasingly diffluent mid/upper jet is located ahead of and to the south of the low. These ML/UL dynamics are also helping to foment LL cyclogenesis, with a developing sfc low over NW Texas (south of the Panhandle). Meanwhile, a rather cold sfc high is drifting southeastward over the Mississippi River Valley. Colder dense air from the east is advecting westward towards the low, and enhancing a temperature gradient across the Lone Star State. The sfc low will track southeastward Sunday, roughly parallel to the temperature gradient. To the north of the low's associated warm front, one can expect widespread light to moderate showers, with some embedded heavier showers and thunderstorms. But those south of the warm front will find themselves in the system's warm sector, where high atmospheric buoyancy coupled with a strongly sheered and veering vertical wind profile will set the stage for stronger thunderstorms. As discussed in my discussion yesterday, there was some uncertainty regarding the exact placement of these boundaries and the overall extent of the warm sector over our CWA. But today, it appears there is increasing confidence that the warm front will be more suppressed southward, limiting the warm sector zones to the coast (especially near Matagorda Bay) and the offshore Gulf waters. Through the early morning hours on Sunday, the highest chance of showers will be across our western counties. There is a risk strong to severe thunderstorms in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay overnight into Sunday morning. Already, we have observed discrete supercells offshore the Coastal Bend this evening, with some "side lobe-y" looking cells offshore of Matagorda. Therefore, I am not going to be surprised if we manage to see a few waterspouts in our Gulf waters in the vicinity of Matagorda before most people wake up on Sunday. We also cannot rule out a tornado in this area either. Rain and thunderstorm coverage should generally increase over our region later this morning and into the afternoon. With trends pointing towards a farther south warm front, it's quite possible that most (maybe all) areas north of I-10 will hold in the 50s all day. There's even some hi-res guidance suggesting our northern zones could drop into the 40s by late afternoon. There will likely be a steep temperature gradient south of I-10. The warmest parts of our CWA (coastal areas of Brazoria, Matagorda, and Jackson Counties) could top out in the 70s. The highest risk of heavy rainfall capable of flooding will be near the coast. However, locally heavy rainfall capable of localized flooding cannot be ruled out farther inland. Widespread totals of 1-2 inches are expected inland, while coastal areas are forecast to average in the 2-4 inch range. Locally much heavier totals are likely at the coast, with some spots possibly receiving over 6 inches of rainfall. The highest rainfall rates are still expected to peak 2-3"/ per hour near the coast. Therefore, flash flooding is a concern. Rain and thunderstorms are not the only hazards associated with this system. Strong, gusty coastal and marine winds will continue through Monday. There is even a Gale Warning in effect for the majority of our marine zones for later today into Monday. Please see the marine discussion for more details. Colder air should push southward towards the coast as the low exits offshore, resulting in breezy and chilly conditions Sunday night. Lows are expected to be in the 40s north of I-10, with low to mid 50s farther south. Yesterday, Monday was appearing murky and quite chilly. Today, there's increasing uncertainty regarding how murky it will be on Monday. Some of the guidance is suggesting a shorter isentropic lift period and more dry air than initially expected, opening the door to breaking clouds and more sunshine. If the sun breaks out by early/mid afternoon, then we may make a run for the 60 degree mark. But if clouds prove more resilient, then I could see us struggling to warm past the mid 50s. Monday night will be chilly, with widespread lows in the 40s. Areas near the coast and within the heart of Houston's urban heat island may remain in the 50s. We still anticipate a warming trend beyond Monday. By Wednesday and Thursday, most of the region is expected to be in the 70s. Couldn't rule out a few locations reaching 80 by week's end. Self && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 601 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026 With the exception of coastal areas, we'll see a brief break in precipitation until a band of rain and embedded storms to our northwest tracks across the region later this morning and off the coast late in the day. Stronger, embedded cells will be capable of producing some heavy downpours, reduced visibility, and gusty winds. Ceilings are currently mixed, but look for things to trend down into MVFR territory this morning and eventually IFR as the day and evening progresses. Moderate rain should come to an end over all locations by early evening, but we're looking for some wrap around drizzle/light rain during the overnight hours. Can't rule out some ceilings <500ft. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 957 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026 Showers and thunderstorms along with strong winds are expected Sunday. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of gales and waterspouts. Winds will be easterly, averaging 20-25 knots with higher gusts through early afternoon. Later in the way, winds are expected to increase while backing northeast to north. There is some uncertainty regarding the timing of this turn. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the Gulf later today through Monday morning and possibly into the afternoon. For Galveston Bay, gusts to gale force are expected this afternoon into tonight, especially in the lower bay. Gulf offshore seas over 10 feet are likely, with waters in the bays become quite rough. Conditions will gradually improve beyond Monday. However, hazardous marine conditions could linger into Wednesday, especially over the Gulf. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 55 47 57 46 / 100 50 20 0 Houston (IAH) 59 49 59 48 / 90 70 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 69 55 64 57 / 90 90 30 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM CST Monday for TXZ214-235>238-313-335>338. Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for TXZ436>439. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ330. Gale Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ335. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ335. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-370. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ350-370. Gale Warning until 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ355-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...47 MARINE...Self