FXUS64 KHGX 060534 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1234 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - A conditional threat remains for severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds (tornadoes cannot be ruled out) tomorrow afternoon/evening along and north of the Highway 105 corridor. - Post-frontal conditions will maintain near to below normal temperatures into the weekend, with a likely chance of 1-1.5 inches of rain areawide by Monday. - Drier and warmer conditions will return by early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026 A relatively active weather pattern will continue across southeast Texas as we sit firmly in the pathway of southwesterly flow aloft for the rest of the week. This flow is positioned between broad troughing across the Upper Great Plains and broad ridging across Mexico into parts of the Gulf. All of this flow is being amplified (in-part) by a slowly-moving area of low pressure set to move across the Baja Peninsula. This, in combination with lift from an incoming frontal boundary through the day on Wednesday, will present a somewhat favorable spatiotemporal window for convection across east-central Texas into Deep East Texas. The "somewhat" comes into play due to a persistently dry 700-850mb layer that will set a significant convective threshold (or cap) against the development of severe thunderstorms. High-resolution guidance picks up on this cap with a rather paltry convective distribution, however, any storms that can get through the cap will still have some ingredients to work with (2500+ J/kg of CAPE, mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km, and 30-40+ kts. of bulk wind shear). Large hail, damaging winds and tornado threats remain on the table as a result. Beyond this upcoming window for severe weather in the next 24-36 hours, post-frontal isentropic uplift will be the main convective theme and source of precipitation through the weekend. With the area of low pressure still slowly approaching West Texas by Friday, it will inject overrunning southwesterly flow with vorticity to instigate more widespread rounds of convection into Saturday and make this the wettest time period in the current forecast range. WPC Day 1-7 QPF forecasts of 1-1.5 inches are mostly from this round of rainfall. Long-range guidance suggests a drier and warmer period (temperature maximums/minimums in the mid-to-upper 80s/upper 60s) by Monday as the next frontal boundary arrives and the area of low pressure finally weakens and shifts eastward into Louisiana. Cassel && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 MVFR ceilings will begin to gradually filter in over the evening hours and eventually becoming widespread by 06Z/Wednesday. There is potential for IFR ceilings early Wednesday morning, especially for terminals north of I-10. Cannot entirely rule out some patchy fog for CXO and terminals northward between 11Z-15Z. MVFR ceilings are expected to stick around through the entire day. Going into Wednesday morning, scattered showers will begin developing along the coast as early as 12Z and expanding over inland areas around 18Z. There is potential for isolated thunderstorms mainly after 21Z for terminals north of and including CXO, but the potential is too low to include in any of those TAFs at this time. Winds will be southerly and generally less than 10 kt. The exception to this is CLL and UTS where a frontal boundary will begin pushing into the area in the afternoon leading to a northerly wind shift. Winds will remain on the light side behind the front. Ceilings will gradually decrease again going into Wednesday evening. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026 Onshore flow will maintain some brief activity for seas with light to moderate swells in the next 24 hours ahead of a frontal boundary. Once the frontal boundary is offshore by Thursday, showers and thunderstorms are more likely (30-50% chance of development), especially by Friday into Saturday. Post-frontal northerly to northeasterly winds are expected to remain below the threshold requiring issuance of a Small Craft Advisory, however, wind speeds could still exceed 20 kts. overnight Thursday further offshore into the Gulf. Long-range guidance suggests another chance of post-frontal showers/thunderstorms offshore beginning later on Sunday. Cassel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 84 66 74 63 / 30 20 0 40 Houston (IAH) 86 71 78 67 / 50 10 20 40 Galveston (GLS) 83 75 81 73 / 10 10 40 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cassel AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Cassel