FXUS64 KHGX 120505 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1205 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated risk of rip currents remains through at least midweek. - Gradual warming trend for most of the work week with daily chances for showers/storms. - A cold front is expected to push through towards the end of the work week bringing cooler, drier conditions to the region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026 Just when you thought we'd never have to struggle to pronounce Isaias again...he found a way to have another impact on our forecast. Although the remnants of Isaias is continuing to move northeastward over the Mid-Atlantic states, it has an axis of moisture that's extending along a frontal boundary down through Florida and stretching into the Gulf. As surface high pressure over the southeastern CONUS erodes and nudges slightly eastward, some of that moisture will work its way in from the southwest overnight and into Monday. We're talking about going from PW values being less than an inch on Sunday to near or above the MAX percentile (~2.23"). A saving grace is that we have a mid-level high overhead, so the air will struggle to rise. However, with this much moisture and a surface boundary nudging into the area, some showers/storms are certainly in play beginning early-ish Monday morning around Matagorda Bay and spreading further inland. The subsidence does look to keep the rain from being widespread, and there does look to be better consensus on areas west of I-45 having the best rain chances. If a shower/storm manages to reach its peak efficiency (and fully tap into the tropical moisture), we could see isolated instances of a quick inch or so of rainfall. This moisture sticks around through midweek and so does the mid- level high...although the main ridge axis does slide further east by midweek. This means our pattern of slightly increasing temperatures (high temperatures in the lower 90s increasing ~1 degree per day) and daily chances for isolated to widely scattered showers/storms will persist into midweek. Something rather peculiar happens going into late Wednesday...drier air pushes in from the east as it wraps around high pressure centered over the southeastern CONUS. This squashes our rain chances on Thursday and presents an interesting scenario for what's up ahead at the end of the work week. 850mb temperatures will still be near-ish the 90th percentile, so we'll still top out in the low 90s...but it'll be a dry heat! Alright that's enough of that...let's talk about that cold front! If you've been reading our AFDs since last week, then you'll remember that I've been throwing in a mention of a potential cold front in mid October in a bonus section. Well...we've gone from the days of wishcasting a cold front to actually FORECASTING one! :D Now I won't take credit for it...well full credit at least, but let's talk about what's in store. We gotta go back in time a lil bit, so bear with me. An upper level trough with an embedded low that is currently over the Pacific Northwest will gradually nudge southeastward towards the Four Corners by midweek. This will generate surface low pressure (lee cyclogenesis) in the Central Plains. The mid to upper level flow is generally northeastward, so the surface low will push northeastward...and rather quickly at that as it goes from the Central Plains midweek to the northeastern CONUS by Thursday night. The upper level trough phases with another one that will be dipping down from southern Canada after midweek, but it does appear an upper low will be able to cutoff and linger around the Baja Peninsula. The latter of that isn't really important right now, but what is important to note is the strong surface high pressure (1036+ mb) associated with a cold front that will get nudged southward from the combined upper level troughs. The question that remains is when does this cold front push into our area and how much of the colder air will we have access to. The answer to both of those as of right now is...*shrug emoji*. I can say that the drier air that pushes in ahead of the front does look to limit our rain chances in associated with the actual frontal passage (FROPA). We might be able to squeeze out some rain closer to coast, but otherwise this looks to be mostly a dry FROPA. A potential timeframe for FROPA still looks to be some time on Friday, but it's too early to be more specific than that. While we don't know exactly how cold we'll get behind this front, we do know that there will be SOME temperature drop behind it along with much drier air...so let's take a look at things probabilistically. Plugging in for the probabilities for low temperatures less than 60 degrees, we get 0% through Thursday night. On Friday night, these probabilities increase to 20-50% but on Saturday...oh man! On Saturday, these probabilities increase to 50-70%! The last time that the City of Houston saw temperatures below 60 degrees was in early May, which was roughly 160 days ago. It's not a slam dunk that we'll see low temperatures be this cool, but it certainly is the best chance that we've had over the past ~23 weeks (but who's counting?). Hey we were able to manifest the cold front, now let's see if we can manifest some 50s! Portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods will likely see this, but I want all of us to join in on them! Y'all know I'm gonna peek into fantasy land again and see if this cooler weather will last a while. Unfortunately, the trends aren't in our favor with chances for above normal temperatures climbing going into early next week. It's another False Fall :( But we'll enjoy the cooler air while we have it! The weekend looks like it'll be absolutely phenomenal! Just throwing it out there that the probability for HIGH temperatures below 80 degrees is generally between 50-80% for Saturday and Sunday...plan accordingly. Batiste && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026 VFR at all sites. Low clouds will increase tonight with patchy fog possible at CXO just before sunrise. Isolated to scattered showers may develop around 18Z along the coast, so have maintained PROB30 for IAH and southern/coastal terminals. During this time, MVFR CIGs may also develop. Winds will start out light out of the southeast, increasing to around 10-15 knots during the afternoon hours. Winds will relax towards the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026 Southeasterly winds became increasingly moderate in the bays and Gulf waters leading to the issuance of caution flags through early Monday morning for the bays and through the afternoon for the Gulf waters. Light to moderate southeasterly winds will prevail for at least the first half of the work week, so an elevated risk of rip currents remains. Another consequence of the occasionally moderate southeasterly flow is the abnormally high water levels. PETSS guidance reflects water levels peaking around 3.5 ft MLLW during high tide for most of the work week. A cold front is expected to push through the region some time on Friday, but some uncertainty remains on just how strong the front will be. Mariners should stay up to date on the forecast as there is potential for strong winds and very elevated seas behind this front towards the end of the week. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 91 74 94 75 / 30 10 40 0 Houston (IAH) 91 77 92 77 / 40 10 50 0 Galveston (GLS) 87 81 86 80 / 50 30 40 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for GMZ350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...Bailey MARINE...Batiste