FXUS64 KHGX 212333 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 533 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog may develop tonight into tomorrow morning. - An Arctic front pushes through Friday night/Saturday, bringing various winter hazards over the weekend: - Extended periods of below freezing temperatures along with hard freezes for parts of the area Saturday night, Sunday night, and Monday night. - Low wind chill values, potentially near 0 in northwestern areas. - Freezing Rain with hazardous to significant ice accumulations. - Hazardous marine conditions. - Residents are encouraged to winterize their home and make plans to keep themselves and loved ones warm during the work week prior to the arrival of the Arctic air. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Today through Thursday: Light to moderate rain continues to move eastward across the area, with a low chance of a thunderstorm if anything can get going behind the main area of rain. With a front stalled across the area, a more humid air mass than we have had recently, and weak onshore flow southeast of the front, guidance is trending more aggressive with dense fog development tonight. A dense fog advisory may need to be issued tonight if trends continue. A warm day is expected on Thursday with very low rain chances, which will be good conditions to prepare for the incoming Arctic cold outbreak and winter storm. Friday through Monday: Confidence continues to increase in dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills coming into the area this weekend and into early next week. Confidence also continues to increase in a significant icing event for the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley. The southern extent of the freezing rain along and south of the I-10 corridor remains more uncertain, but potentially highly impactful. This is due to the very cold temperatures moving in and the potential for significant travel impacts with even small amounts of freezing rain especially on elevated surface/highway overpasses. Areas that do not drop below freezing until precipitation ends can still see impacts as any moisture remaining moisture on roadways/bridges may re-freeze. Winds will also increase the impacts of freezing precipitation. While the wintry precipitation has certainly attracted a lot of attention, we want to make sure that the dangerously cold weather coming in does not get overshadowed. Hard freeze conditions will be possible both Saturday night and Sunday night with lows in the teens and lower 20s, lowest on Sunday night into Monday morning. Additionally, gusty northerly winds will be present, dropping wind chills into the single digits and teens both nights, again lowest Sunday night into Monday morning. We have issued an areawide Extreme Cold Watch to account for both the wind chill and hard freeze threats, rather than issuing a separate Freeze Watch/Warning for a hard freeze. Similarly cold temperatures will continue Monday night into Tuesday morning. However, with lower winds, apparent temperatures may be more in the range of a Cold Weather Advisory than an Extreme Cold Warning, so we will not continue the watch that far out at this time. Also of note, many areas north of I-10 may not get above freezing all day on Sunday. A notable change from earlier guidance regarding the synoptic pattern is that guidance has trended more progressive with the cutoff low off the coast of the Baja, now showing it phasing more with the northern stream trough and becoming a more progressive shortwave. It appears this may be one of the reasons for the large model spread in temperatures for the area Saturday into early Sunday, as the increased forcing may allow a bit more of a surface trough or wave of low pressure to develop along the Gulf Coast. This increased onshore flow and coastal front would offer a bit more resistance to the strong shallow Arctic air mass moving in, though it will eventually give in. Until we get closer in time to see which will win out for areas along and south of I-10, we will continue to lean heavily into probabilistic messaging and urge everyone to continue to check the latest forecasts. Will note that there is even a lower probability alternative scenario where a small warm sector develops right along the coast with a potential for severe storms Saturday, but this probability is too low for any official messaging at this time. The latest probabilistic WSSI from WPC continues to hit hard on the freezing rain impacts for the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. NBM continues to show medium chances of significant ice accumulations exceeding 0.25" in northern portions of the areas, indicating an increasing concern for power outages, with impacts compounded by the very cold air moving in behind this system and gusty northerly winds. Rain may change over to freezing rain as early as early Saturday morning in areas such as Houston County, with the surface freezing line beginning to progress southward through the day. Some minor sleet accumulations may also occur in our far northern counties. For areas along and south of I- 10, we will have to watch the surface freezing line closely Saturday night to Sunday morning, relative to when waves of precipitation move through. 20-30% NBM probabilities of 1/8" of ice (winter storm warning criteria) extend down into the I-10 corridor, along with 30- 60% probabilities of 0.01". 20% probabilities of 0.01" of ice extend down to the coast. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for areas generally along and north of I-10, and will monitor for any need to expand it southward. As we get closer, upgrades to a Winter Storm Warning (or an Ice Storm Warning further north) are possible as well as Winter Weather Advisories, which may extend further south of the current watch area. Remember that even going from a Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory is an upgrade, not a downgrade, as it indicates increasing confidence in impacts. This is especially the case when it comes to freezing rain, since even small amounts can have a big impact. JDavis && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 525 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Daytime rain is mostly exiting the area to the east, though anticipate we'll still have some spotty -shra around the metro and coastal areas through 6-8z. Ceilings will be a challenge with diffuse surface troffiness in the region. VFR conditions outside of any precip early this evening should generally trend downward into MVFR and IFR territory (and maybe some LIFR from CXO southward) as the night progresses and some fog and low cigs develops. Poor flying conditions anticipated thru the morning hours Thurs with just slow improvement on cigs/vis. The hope is that by mid to late afternoon we'll see some prevailing MVFR conditions take over, and possibly VFR for metro/coastal areas if the trof lifts back north enough. However, confidence is low and it'll be fairly short lived as they'll begins falling once again Thurs evening. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 224 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 A coastal trough will lead to rain continuing through tonight, with low chances continuing into Thursday afternoon. An isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out, especially this afternoon. Water temperatures in the bays and along the immediate coast range from the upper 50s to low 60s. Southeasterly winds will gradually increase dew points into the low to mid 60s by this afternoon. This leads to the potential for sea fog tonight and Thursday night. This fog may be locally dense at times, especially tonight into Thursday morning. A strong Arctic cold front pushes offshore by Saturday with strong northeasterly to northerly winds prevailing in its wake through the weekend. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for this period with sustained winds in the 25-30 kt range and elevated seas in the 8-11 ft range. Gale force gusts cannot be ruled out. Widespread precipitation is expected late Friday into Sunday behind the front. While the precipitation type along the immediate coast is anticipated to be liquid, there are some areas along the northern and central portions of the bays that have the potential for freezing rain Saturday night into Sunday morning. Additionally, we'll monitor for the potential for another round of abnormally low water levels in the bays during low tide cycles, so be sure to stay up to date with the latest forecasts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 54 71 59 70 / 20 0 10 60 Houston (IAH) 60 74 61 73 / 30 10 10 40 Galveston (GLS) 60 67 60 67 / 30 10 10 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227- 300-313. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300- 313-335>338-436>439. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JDavis AVIATION...47 MARINE...JDavis