FXUS64 KHGX 251138
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
638 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers and 
  thunderstorms today.

- Next storm system moves into the area late Tuesday night and 
  Wednesday. Will be monitoring the potential for some localized 
  strong storms and/or heavy rain.

- Less active weather anticipated during the second half of the
  week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Broad mid-upper trof situated over Texas with a vort/MCV rotating
around north central Texas early this morning. This feature 
should sag southward a bit today, and allow for some scattered 
late afternoon/evening showers and tstm development. (Better 
chances across the northern half of the region). 

Tuesday, this trof/weakness lifts north. Eyes then turn to the west 
again as yet another shortwave trof begins approaching the region. 
Guidance is in still in pretty good agreement showing another 
complex of storms pushing across southeast Texas late Tuesday night 
and Wed. Increased southerly flow in advance will drive PW's up into 
the 1.8-2.1" range. This deeper moisture, along with broad upper 
diffluence aloft should set the stage for some healthy tstm activity 
and a possibility for regenerating/training cells. Incoming 00z 
model deterministic rain totals are generally in the 1-2" range, 
though some (UKMET, ICON) are also showing some localized 3-5" 
amounts in/near some of our coastal counties which received 
elevated totals last week. Too early to pin down the specifics, 
but something we'll be keeping an eye on.

Depending on this systems movement and/or mesoscale factors, we 
should see precip tapering off Wed night or Thurs morning. The 
remainder of the week looks less eventful as some subtle mid level 
ridging builds in. A mix of guidance tries to bring a weak backdoor 
front into portions of the region later this weekend. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

KCXO experiencing IFR CIGs this morning. All other terminals at
VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon. Low confidence on exactly where these will occur. Light
patchy fog will be possible again overnight. Winds will generally
be light out of the east through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Light to moderate east winds will prevail tonight and Monday, 
eventually increasing out of the southeast on Tuesday. There will be 
some isolated showers and thunderstorms possible at times. Onshore 
winds ramp up Tuesday night ahead of the next disturbance and 
associated storms (some possibly strong) that should move into the 
waters late Tuesday night and Wednesday. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  88  70  88  72 /  30  30  20  80 
Houston (IAH)			  89  71  88  75 /  20  20  30  60 
Galveston (GLS)			  84  77  85  79 /  20  20  30  60 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...47