FXUS64 KHGX 031800 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rainfall has been unimpressive up to this point today, but let's keep a close look around the I-10 corridor late in the day and evening. Some guidance shows an uptick in storm development and localized heavy rain there. - Continued rain chances Sunday, followed by some drier air moving in early next week (moreso inland). - After a break in the rain, we should see chances ramp back up across parts of the region Thur-Sat (probably coastal areas). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026 Somewhat benign conditions so far today inland, with most precip offshore in association with coastal troffiness, then another area across north Tx ahead of the diffuse H85 front. That said, we're seeing breaks of sunshine between those 2 areas and temps warming close to 90F. With any further heating, we could see some shra/tstm development initiating inland later this afternoon. HRRR has done a reasonable job so far today, and it's been showing the area between the I-10 and HWY 105 corridors lighting up later today. Guidance has also shown signals indicating the potential for some *localized* 2-5" totals into late evening which could bring a street flooding threat if this occurs over a more metro location. Let's keep an eye on things. Otherwise, some iso-sct shra continuing overnight into Sunday, more widespread offshore. Surface high pressure begins sinking sewd thru the Plains into the Ohio/Tennessee/Mississippi Valleys early next week. This should drive some drier air into the region, especially inland parts, and push the surface front further offshore. This'll give most of the area lower rain chances into midweek. But, as the high lifts back to the northeast, we'll see the coastal trof and associated deeper moisture become re-established closer to the coast. A mid-level trof/low becomes established across northern Mexico and West Texas, and disturbances rotating around it should contribute to rain chances trending back up Thur-Sat until it tracks to the east late next weekend. There's not the best of model agreement in terms of the finer details (positioning/timing/etc), so would anticipate so forecast tweaks in the coming days. 47 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026 The busy TAF cycle continues throughout the next period as well. The chances for SHRA/TSRA, IFR CIGS, and decreased VIS respectively will be the impacts through this cycle. Currently conditions range from VFR-MVFR with a prevails NE breeze between 8-13kts to continue throughout the TAF period. Now onto flight conditions, first up, iso-sct SHRA increases in coverage inland with brief periods of TSRA, during peak heating hrs, this afternoon through the evening hours. The chance for showers to linger into the morning does exist, but timing and confidence remain low and thus excluded from this TAF cycle. Next, as the early morning hrs arrive, a 400-800ft cloud deck (IFR) expands south beginning around 9-10z and lasting through the afternoon. Finally, around 13-16z, the I-10 corridor and south has the chance for reduced MVFR-IFR visibility due to patchy BR. Current TAFs show MVFR due to confidence levels. All flight impacts will be monitored and amended as continuing model guidance arrives. CMW && .MARINE... Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026 Winds/seas (15-25kt & 5-7ft) have been overperforming and will maintain the advisory flags through the evening and monitor trends. Suspect these might need to be extended into mid morning Sunday - or replaced with Caution flags at a minimum. Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend, with locally heavier thunderstorms possible. Moderate northeast winds will prevail along with 4 to 7 foot seas. Winds/seas are expected to increase further early next week as the front pushes further offshore. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 69 81 67 85 / 40 30 20 10 Houston (IAH) 73 82 72 87 / 60 30 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 77 84 77 86 / 80 70 60 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday morning for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350-355- 370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...CMW MARINE...47