FXUS64 KHGX 071813
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
113 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- With more sun, temperatures will run above seasonal averages,
  though humidity will be somewhat lower.

- Can't completely rule out a brief shower or two through 
  Thursday, but the best rain chances remain offshore.

- Hazardous marine conditions (winds/seas) are expected at times,
  more so toward the end of the work week from a nearby tropical
  system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Modestly calm & drier wx is still slated to continue this afternoon 
as east-northeasterly flow remains in place across the region. PWs 
have gradually declined from yesterday, with Satellite derived TPW 
showing values of ~1.0 inch near College Station and ~1.7 inches at 
the coastline. A few shortwaves are progged pass overhead today 
following the troughing aloft, though capping around 800-750mb 
should inhibit development to some degree. Some showers could form 
under the cap, though most activity will likely be limited to 
coastal areas, where moisture is deeper. Some showers have already 
developed along the coast this morning within a small area of 
convergence, so additional activity isn't completely out of the 
question.

Thursday will generally feature similar weather to that of today, 
though with some pattern changes. Upper level troughing over the 
state should deepen while Isaias reaches Hurricane strength and 
turns northward. The combination of these features should funnel a 
slot of drier air into SE Texas in the afternoon, keeping inland 
rain chances isolated over the coast and slim to none inland. As 
Isaias intensifies, the pressure gradient should also tighten as 
well, resulting in breezy conditions inland during the afternoon 
hours. With distant tropical systems, hazardous marine conditions 
will develop across the Texas Coastal waters, including elevated 
seas, increased risk of rip currents and potential for minor coastal 
flooding along Gulf-facing beaches. 

By Friday, Isaias should be around the central/north-central Gulf, 
continuing north-northeastward throughout the day. Isaias will have 
larger influence on the low level-surface flow over the area, 
backing winds further to the northeast. Some models show higher PWs 
lingering near the coast, so rain chances won't be completely out of 
the question, though inland areas once again look to remain dry into 
the weekend. Onshore winds return around Sunday, ushering in WAA & 
moisture return into next week as ridging builds overtop SE Texas. 
Rain chances also make a return as well.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions prevail across the area the entire TAF cycle. NE 
winds continue today before relaxing to lgt and VRB during the 
overnight. Tomorrow afternoon winds pick back up to the NE.

CMW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Moderate northeasterly winds are expected to increase over the next 
few days as Tropical Storm Isaias strengthens and becomes a 
hurricane. Isaias should remain well east of Southeast Texas, making 
landfall along the north central Gulf coast later this week. 
However, increasing winds and easterly swells are still anticipated 
to bring hazardous marine conditions to the Texas Gulf coast. 
Caution flags remain in effect for the Gulf waters tonight, with 
Small Craft Advisories taking effect Thursday morning as winds 
increase to 15-25 kts and seas rise to 6-9 feet. Elevated water 
levels during times of high tide (above 3.5 ft MLLW) and increased
risk of rip currents are also anticipated due to this tropical 
system. Winds and seas will subside heading into Sunday.

There is still some uncertainty with the full strength of the winds 
on the west side of Isaias. Some model guidance depicts the 
strongest of these winds occuring further off the coast in the 
lightering area. Depending on how conditions evolve, the current 
Small Craft Advisory configuration may need to be refined.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  68  94  67  92 /   0   0   0  10 
Houston (IAH)			  73  93  69  91 /   0   0   0  20 
Galveston (GLS)			  79  89  78  87 /   0   0  10  30 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Thursday morning for 
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for 
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...CMW
MARINE...03