FXUS64 KHGX 091157 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 557 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Risk of strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening ahead of a cold front. - Cool, dry and windy conditions develop behind the front on Saturday. - Slight warm up on Tuesday before another reinforcing front on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1228 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 A much deeper mid/upper level trough is expected to pass through the Plains today, providing support for additional showers and storms across the area. Favorable bulk shear totals of around 45-65 knots will certainly help with storm organization, though instability is leaning on the low end in ensemble means (topping out around 1200 J/KG) though some individual runs still show the potential to get 2000J/KG or more. While the strongest forcing with this system will still be much further ENE, conditions locally still appear to be sufficiently potent to get some discrete strong/severe storms today. Models keep pinging the norther half of the CWA across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods for the strongest updraft helicity (again, locally speaking), courtesy of an embedded shortwave in some ensemble members. The severe weather risk will kick off during the afternoon (starting around noon), and will continue into the evening as the shortwave passes. While storms should propagate from northwest to southeast with the FROPA, the strongest storms are more likely to track with the shortwave over the northern half of our area. Wouldn't completely rule out the potential for some stronger storms to the south as well as the front moves off the coast. SE Texas will be under a Slight (level 2/5) to Marginal (level 1/5) Risk for severe weather today, with all severe hazards still in play. The cold front should be off the coast early Saturday morning with cooler, drier weather and strong northerly winds developing in it's wake, especially across the barrier islands. Highs will be in the mid 50s/lower 60s with early morning lows in the 30s/40s. Winds begin to decrease on Sunday as high pressure starts to push off to the east. Overnight into Monday morning will likely be the coolest part of the forecast with lows dipping into the upper 20s in the Piney Woods/Crockett. Cooler weather persists through Monday with onshore flow slated to return Tuesday, resulting in rising temperatures and rain chances into Wednesday. Another trough digging through the Mississippi River Valley should push a reinforcing front into the area around mid week, helping keep cooler conditions in place a through Thursday. 03 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 545 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 Patchy fog and low CIGs around 600-1500ft will continue through the morning before scattering out/lifting this afternoon. VFR conditions will largely prevail this afternoon with SCT low clouds and BKN/OVC mid-level clouds. Already seeing some light streamer showers along the coast, and am expecting to see increasing coverage inland through the morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms begin to develop this afternoon with the greatest coverage of thunderstorms likely occuring north of IAH, but there will be isolated TS possibly all the way to the coast. A cold front will move through the area this evening causing a northwesterly wind shift. As the front approaching the coast this evening, there will be an increase in shower and thunderstorm potential for LBX and GLS. MVFR conditions with CIGs around 1500ft will develop this evening ahead of the front and linger into tonight before scattering out be daybreak. Breezy northerly winds will develop as the clouds scatter out with gusts up to 20-25kt that will continue through Saturday morning. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1228 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 Winds continue to decrease overnight, though seas remain elevated offshore. They should slowly come down, though caution flags will remain in place for the time being to allow seas to subside. Sea fog will still be a concern this morning and likely this evening too ahead of an approaching cold front, as dense patches will be possible. Showers and storms will likely accompany the front with an isolated strong to severe possible as well. The front should push off the coast later tonight/early Saturday morning. Moderate to strong northerly winds behind the front will warrant Small Craft Advisories at a minimum over the better half of the weekend. Cannot completely rule out the potential for Gale conditions either. Winds and seas slowly decrease Sunday into next week. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 46 58 36 / 70 60 10 0 Houston (IAH) 79 53 63 42 / 70 70 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 76 57 66 48 / 50 80 40 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for GMZ335-355. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...03