FXUS64 KHGX 091049 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 549 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Stalled front near the coast lifts back north overnight. Look for patchy to areas of fog developing both inland and offshore. - Mostly cloudy, warm and muggy conditions through Tuesday. - Next weather system and associated storms push through late Tuesday night into Wednesday followed by cooler, breezy, and seasonal conditions to end the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026 As of ~12AM (very early Monday morning), a quasi-stationary frontal boundary remains near the coast but is ever so gradually drifting northward. PW values remain above the 90th percentile (~1.40"), so some embedded shortwaves and favorable positioning of the upper level jet will allow for scattered showers to continue into early Monday morning. This moisture sticks around into Monday afternoon and another passing shortwave leads to more spotty showers. Before we get to that though, we'll have to deal with some fog overnight into Monday morning. That's a consequence of the wet grounds from this weekend's rainfall and the light winds from the frontal boundary being nearby. An LLJ will be strengthening overhead overnight reaching 25-30 kt by 12Z, so we'll see if that generates enough mixing to limit the extent of the fog. Either way, some of you will see fog overnight into Monday morning and it may be dense at times. In fact, it's already becoming dense in portions of the Brazos Valley. As previously mentioned, some spotty showers are expected on Monday. There is a low-end chance for an isolated storm or two given the elevated instability that'll be in place. Convection would have to overcome a capping inversion around 800-750mb in order to tap into that, and there's not really any sufficient forcing mechanisms that would help it do so. Not impossible, but improbable. High temperatures will remain in the 80s through midweek with low temperatures in the 60s/70s. If you've been keeping up with the forecast, then you'll remember that we have an upper level cutoff low currently sitting near the Baja Peninsula. If you haven't been keeping up with the forecast (that'll cost Gryffindor 10 points), this cutoff low split off from an upper level trough earlier in the weekend. This upper level low will track eastward and make its way into west TX by Tuesday evening. Surface low pressure develops in response and drifts eastward through the state. The associated LLJ strengthens Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as the low drifts eastward with mid- level winds peaking in the 40-50 kt range on Tuesday evening (strongest winds over the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods). We'll have to monitor for storms developing in association with this LLJ and increasing PVA Tuesday afternoon and evening in the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods. Model consensus points toward a line of showers/storms pushing through Southeast TX early Wednesday morning and into the afternoon. This will be along an initial frontal boundary moving from west to east, and there is some potential for a few storms to become strong to severe (especially up north). PW values will be well above the 90th percentile in the 1.6-1.8" range, so locally heavy rainfall is also on the table. These storms will be fairly progressive though, so we are not expecting any areas seeing an extended period of heavy rainfall. We know that Spring Break is this week for a lot of you, so be sure to keep an eye on the forecast as we head into the middle of the week for the next round of showers/storms. Another cold front pushes in from the north on Wednesday night bringing in a brief period of seasonal temperatures alongside gusty northerly winds and drier air. Thursday will be the best day to be outdoors for Spring Break (you heard it here first) with a northerly breeze, high temperatures in the 60s/70s, and low temperatures in the 40s/50s. We'll be back in the 80s for highs and 60s for lows again by the weekend, so enjoy the seasonal temperatures while we have em! It's too early to lock this in, but we're monitoring the potential for another cold front going into early next week. Batiste && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 536 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026 Widespread MVFR conditions (CIGs around 1500-2000) are being seen across the area this morning with areas of IFR conditions south of SGR (CIGs around 600-800ft). There may be a brief window of CIGs around 700ft for the rest of the region through around 14z, but MVFR conditions are expected to largely prevail. CIGs lift through the late morning with VFR conditions prevailing this afternoon into this evening. A return to MVFR conditions is expected between 4-6z tonight, with again potential for IFR CIGs late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Southerly winds around 7-12kt will develop later this morning and continue through the day. Winds decrease to around 5-8kt overnight, but remain southerly. Isolated showers are possible this afternoon between 19-23z, but coverage will be so limited that it could not be included in the TAFs. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026 A frontal boundary currently over the coastal tier of counties will gradually drift northward overnight. With light winds and gradually increasing low level moisture overnight, expecting fog to develop thru Monday morning. Dense fog will be possible in the central to southern parts of the bays and extending into the coastal Gulf waters. Visibilities will improve late Monday morning, but periods of sea fog will be an intermittent issue through Tuesday. As the next weather system approaches from the west, southeasterly winds and seas will increase late Tuesday likely prompting the issuance of caution flags or a Small Craft Advisory. A band of showers and thunderstorms will push through on Wednesday ahead of a cold front and may produce locally higher wind gusts/waves. A cold front then pushes offshore Wednesday night with a period of strong northerly winds (sustained 25-30kt with gusts up to gale possible) and elevated seas (7-10 ft) lasting through Thursday. Onshore flow returns Thursday night. Those heading to the beaches or out on the waters for Spring Break should be advised of this period of hazardous marine conditions around midweek...stay tuned to the forecast for updates. Batiste && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026 Majority of Southeast TX received rain over the weekend, but it certainly was a tale of the haves and the have nots in terms of rainfall amounts. Areas along and east of I-45 (especially in Harris, Liberty, and Chambers Counties) were the big winners with rainfall amounts in the 4-6" range. Periods of heavy rainfall led to a few urban and small stream flood advisories Saturday night into Sunday morning. The bayous faired well throughout this event with only a few gauges along Greens and Halls Bayous around the Aldine area cresting into action stage. We'll see how this weekend's rainfall impacts the ongoing drought situation (~90% of the region was in a severe to extreme drought ahead of this event). The next round of showers/storms is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday along a frontal boundary. PW values will be well above the 90th percentile (~1.40"), so locally heavy rainfall will be possible in any of the stronger storms. Thankfully, these storms are expected to be fairly progressive, so we're not anticipating extended periods of heavy rainfall this time around. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 83 69 83 66 / 10 0 20 60 Houston (IAH) 83 72 84 70 / 20 0 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 76 70 76 69 / 10 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...Batiste