FXUS64 KHGX 160540 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and windy today in the wake of the morning cold front. Secure outdoor items that could be lifted (Halloween yard decor, etc). - Hazardous marine conditions expected. Gale Warning is in effect today into Saturday for strong north winds and building seas. - Warmer temperatures return next week, but just seasonable in nature. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Frontal boundary is currently on the doorstep of our northern CWA and should continue its southward push overnight and early in the morning. Isolated-scattered showers and maybe a storm or two are possible in advance of the boundary. Winds should significantly increase this morning with sustained 20-30mph speeds anticipated with some higher gusts. A Wind Advisory is in effect for much of the region. High temps will mainly be in the upper 60s-upper 70s (largely steady with incoming CAA). It's shaping up to be a great weather weekend with lows in the 40s and 50s and highs in the 70s. One note for those with outdoor plans...be extremely careful with anything that might cause a spark or flames - the fire danger will be elevated with dry air in place. High pressure behind the font will track eastward early next week and we should see a gradual return to mainly seasonable temperatures. Though the center of the ridge should be positioned to our east, it's expansive enough where we'll still be on its outer periphery most of the week. Prevailing east winds should recycle some drier air into the region from time-to-time and keep the Gulf moisture return and associated rain chances mostly in check. Exception might be some isolated-scattered showers offshore and near the coast. 47 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR to start the TAF period, with light VRB winds prevailing. A cold front is anticipated to arrive to the northern TAF sites in the next 2-4 hours, then through the metro area heading into sunrise. Ahead of the front, MVFR CIGs push SE through the region, and should lift and scatter out by late morning tomorrow. Isolated showers may be possible overnight along and south of the front. Behind the front, winds shift to northerly, and increase significantly. Sustained N winds of 20-25 kts with higher gusts are expected behind the front. Winds peak in the afternoon hours, gusting up to 30 kts. MLG && .MARINE... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Look for winds to shift to the north prior to sunrise as a front begins pushing into the coastal waters. Winds will initially be somewhat light, but steadily increase as the morning and afternoon progresses. Gale conditions are likely in the waters west of Freeport toward mid morning...expanding eastward toward the Galveston area later today. Highest winds will likely be this evening and tonight as cooler air moves over the warmer shelf waters. A Gale Warning is in effect today into Saturday. Gusts to 35-45kt are not out of the question, maybe higher at some of the elevated platforms offshore. Seas will build to 7-13ft by tonight. Winds and seas will begin slowly trending downward later Saturday afternoon, but still remain elevated offshore into early Sunday. Winds will veer to the east early next week as high pressure tracks east of the region. 47 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Strong north winds and cooler conditions are anticipated today and tonight in the wake of this mornings cold front. Winds of 15-30 mph with higher gusts are expected today and into this evening...slowly diminishing overnight and Saturday. Speeds should be highest west of I-45 and also along the coast where gusts in excess of 35 mph are possible. Though breezy to windy conditions are likely, RH values in the 30-40% range will be above Red Flag Warning criteria. That said, caution is strongly advised with outdoor burning. The Texas A&M Forest Service indicates a high to very high fire danger. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 49 67 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 52 70 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 60 71 60 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ176-177-195>199-210>214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338. Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ436>439. GM...Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...MLG MARINE...47