FXUS64 KHGX 082341 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 541 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloudy and cool for the next couple days with some chances of mainly light rain for some locations. - Small Craft Advisory in effect for portions of the upper Texas coast for moderate east winds and 4-7ft seas. - Cold front is expected late Wednesday or early Thursday followed by drier colder weather for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 148 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 A cloudy and cool afternoon with temperatures generally running in the 60s. Light rain, spotty in some locations, will continue to move across portions of the region with the best chances for areas south of I-10, particularly over our southwestern counties. Deep surface convergence prevails over south-central TX while an upper level closed low continues to spin over the north- central MX before moving over TX in the coming days. Increased PVA with height ahead of the upper low and decent low moisture at the surface will support additional rounds of low clouds and light rain or drizzle on Monday and Tuesday. In fact, forecast soundings suggest this idea with widespread low clouds developing tonight into Monday, likely producing periods of drizzle across most of SE TX through late Monday morning. As the day progresses, a drier airmass at the 900:850 mb layer will gradually filter in from the northeast, reducing PoPs across our north and eastern counties. However, rain will continue with chances for most areas south of I-10, which is where the highest moisture availability and forcing persist. A rinse-a-repeat forecast is expected on Tuesday as the main upper low lifts to our north-northeast, though with skies scattering out a bit more, temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 70s. By mid-week, a deepening trough over the eastern CONUS will drag a cold front across the region from Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain and storm chances are possible ahead of the FROPA, particularly over the coastal counties. A mid to upper level ridge will build in across the western CONUS by Thursday, bringing drier conditions through the weekend. Deterministic models and some ensembles continue to bring a brief surge of cooler airmass from the northeast Friday night into Saturday. Confidence remains low to moderate as the 12Z guidance shows slightly warmer 850 mb temperatures compared to previous runs. However, the general trend shows low temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s across our far northeastern counties. Overall, expect a fall-like weekend with highs in the 70s and lows mainly in the 40s and 50s. JM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 538 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 Widely scattered -SHRA should taper this evening, yielding to a cloudy VFR deck through early tomorrow morning. Cannot rule out localized sub-VFR. More numerous -SHRA expected by mid/late morning into the afternoon, justifying the introduction of VCSH prevailing groups at most TAF sites. Note the PROBs for low-end MVFR tomorrow. Low cigs and reduced vis will be possible even within light showers. Winds will remain light. && .MARINE... Issued at 148 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026 Moderate northeast winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft will continue through late this evening, particularly for the Gulf waters west of Freeport. Winds and seas will gradually weaken/subside overnight, though Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions will likely continue through late Monday morning. Light northeast to east winds will return Monday evening, before a FROPA shifts winds to the northwest from late Wednesday into Thursday. Winds and seas may reach Advisory level after the frontal passage on Thursday. A few light showers are possible through midweek, with the best chances on Wednesday. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 55 70 55 75 / 30 20 10 10 Houston (IAH) 58 69 57 77 / 30 20 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 64 71 65 74 / 20 40 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ330-350- 370. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ355-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Self MARINE...JM