FXUS64 KHGX 071834 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1234 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold front moving through the area today ushering in chillier weather to start the work week. - Hazardous marine conditions with winds of 20-25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt expected this afternoon into Monday morning. - Windy conditions along the coast later this afternoon into Monday morning behind the front leading to the issuance of a Wind Advisory. - Warmer temperatures return by midweek, but we continue to monitor the potential for another cold front towards the end of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 When I asked for a white Christmas...fog isn't what I had in mind! Before y'all say anything, yes I know it's only December 7th, but Christmas is a season so it counts! Widespread dense fog blanketed Southeast TX this morning thanks to the return of plentiful low level moisture through onshore flow. This onshore flow combined with compressional heating ahead of an approaching cold front will lead to high temperatures today topping out in the upper 60s to mid 70s. 850mb temperatures will reach near the 90th percentile this afternoon mainly for areas south of I-10. That'll be combined with light southwesterly winds ahead of the front, which will lead those high temperatures being 5-8 degrees above normal (mid 70s). So, this will be our warmest day since Thanksgiving weekend. That's just about as much suspense as I can build before talking about today's cold front, which has already begun to push through portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods. We can expect the cold front to be off the coast later this afternoon (let's say by 5-6pm), but we shouldn't expect to see any rain along the frontal boundary. You'll know when the front has pushed through by both the increasing northerly winds and the clearing of cloud cover. Those northerly winds will be howling overnight especially along the coast. As a result, a Wind Advisory will go into effect this evening for the barrier islands from 6pm Sunday through 6am Monday. With wind gusts in the 30-35+ mph range overnight into early Monday morning, please be sure to secure any outdoor holiday decorations...it's a little early for Santa to take flight. Now let's talk about exactly how cold we'll get behind this front! Some clouds will still linger especially east of I-45 tonight along with those breezy northerly winds, so we'll only see low temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Northerly winds stick around into Monday as drier air continues to filter in. Expect skies to become clear by the afternoon and winds becoming light after sunset. Clear skies + light winds + dry air (dew points in the 30s) = max radiational cooling. So, Monday night will be the coldest night behind this front with low temperatures ranging from the low 30s to low 40s. Some portions of the Piney Woods may see a brief, light freeze. This will be the perfect opportunity to break out your favorite striped sweater (but the real ones know that the best time to wear one is all the time). So, we're warm today and chilly early next week...what's next?! Well, we'll be back into the mid 70s by Wednesday with some areas approaching the 80°F mark on Thursday as onshore flow/WAA returns on Tuesday. On Thursday, we'll have southwesterly winds combined with 850mb temperatures around or exceeding the 90th percentile, so I bumped up temperatures just a bit. That warming trend miiiight come to an end at the end of the work week with yet another cold front. Wait...so over the span of just over a week we're going from cold to warm to cold to warm and maybe back to cold again...snip snap, snip snap, snip snap! You have no idea the physical toll all of these temperature swings have on a person! The end of the work week cold front still remains a bit uncertain. Looking through ensemble guidance (both GEFS and ECMWF), there is quite the spread in temperatures. Some ensemble members say we'll have low temperatures in the 30s/40s while other members say we'll be in the 60s. The count of members that show below normal temperatures do outnumber those that show above normal temperatures at the end of the week, but it's not entirely a slam dunk one way or the other at the moment. Even the spread between the upper and lower quartiles for temperatures in the latest deterministic NBM run still spans 15-20+ degrees! A large interquartile range is indicative of a wide range in model output, which is just a fancy way of saying that uncertainty remains. Batiste && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1119 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Frontal boundary working its way through the Brazos Valley. CLL/UTS at MVFR as clouds linger behind the boundary. All other sites at IFR/LIFR. Low CIGs and/or VSBYs will continue through early afternoon for IAH/HOU/SGR and coastal terminals. VFR conditions will follow the FROPA with the exception of a brief period of MVFR CIGs between 00Z and 05Z. NW winds will develop behind the front with gusts of 25-30 knots expected. Winds relax early Monday morning. Bailey && .MARINE... Issued at 1234 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Lingering cloud cover and decreased visibilities will stick around through at least the mid afternoon hours. Light onshore flow will also continue until a cold front pushes offshore later this afternoon. This will bring an end to any lingering fog/mist as drier air ushers in. Moderate to strong northerly winds will prevail in the wake of the front through Monday morning leading to the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for the bays and the Gulf waters. Sustained winds will be in the 20-25 kt range with gusts up to 30-35 kt alongside rough bay waters and 6-9 ft seas. Occasional gusts to gale force will be possible in the offshore Gulf waters. These elevated offshore winds may lead to abnormally low water levels during the low tide cycle on Monday. Winds and seas gradually subside on Monday with the wind direction becoming easterly by Tuesday morning and southeasterly by Tuesday afternoon. This may result in fog development around midweek. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 38 58 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 44 61 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 50 60 51 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to noon CST Monday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...Bailey MARINE...Batiste