FXUS64 KHGX 021741 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1241 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Dry conditions continue today, please continue to use caution when working with open flame or equipment that can cause sparks and start a fire. - Rain chances rise on Friday into the weekend when moisture deepens enough to allow for some isolated seabreeze showers/storms along the coast. - Small craft will likely need to exercise caution Friday into the weekend due to increased winds and seas. Beachgoers should also be aware that there will likely be an increased risk of rip currents this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The stretch of dry weather continued today with mostly clear skies and temperatures rising into the upper 80s to low 90s. There will be a gradual change in the weather starting tomorrow as a long easterly fetch develops over the northern Gulf helping to bring some moisture back into SE Texas. A combination of the increased moisture and a broad upper-level low over the Mississippi RV will bring a slight increase in the chance of showers and storms on Friday and into the weekend. Only areas south of I-10 will have a chance of the shower and thunderstorm activity as it will mostly be driven by the afternoon seabreeze. Cannot out rule an isolated shower north of I-10, but activity will be minimal. For Monday through at least midweek, there will be slightly better chances for isolated afternoon activity north of I-10, but still only a slight chance. While there will be higher moisture across the area that daytime heating may be able to tap into to develop some isolated activity, there will be a building upper level ridge of high pressure developing over the region. This high pressure will increase subsidence over the area, thus limiting precipitation chances. Thus, limiting PoPs next week to 15-25 percent during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will continue to run slightly above normal with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Temperatures may increase another degree or two by Wednesday of next week as that high pressure builds over the region. Fowler && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 With a couple exceptions (one quite notable), this is a VFR forecast with main challenge being winds this morning being Light/VRB landbreeze, with winds gradually becoming easterly 5-10 kts for the afternoon - southeasterly right on the coast with the seabreeze, then light/VRB again tonight. Foggy spots SGR and *especially* LBX doing their thing right now, with LBX all the way down to 1/4SM. Expecting things to stay roughly as is or degrade slightly through sunrise, then improve rapidly as the sun rises and temps increase. Do not have a return of BR/FG in their TAFs tonight for now due to uncertainty, but is certainly on the table. && .MARINE... Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Light winds and low seas continue through tonight, but increasing easterly winds are expected to develop Friday through the weekend. The easterly winds are expected to rise to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kts as early late Friday morning/early afternoon with these wind speeds continuing through Sunday morning. These higher winds will lead to increasing wave heights as well with seas climbing to around 4-6ft by Friday evening and persist through Sunday. Isolated higher seas of 7-8ft cannot be ruled out on Saturday in the offshore waters beyond 20nm. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop in the coastal waters on Friday with chances continuing through at least the start of next week. The persistent moderate onshore flow will likely lead to an increase in strong rip currents along area beaches this weekend, and lead to higher than normal high tides (around 3-3.5ft above MLLW during times of high tide). Fowler && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Active burn bans in SE Texas: Houston (New), Madison, Colorado, and Wharton counties. Dry conditions continue today with afternoon RH values dropping to 29-40% for inland areas. Observed 10 hour fuel moisture across SE Texas shows many areas below the 25th and 10th percentiles, with isolated spots in our west/northwestern counties below the 3rd percentile. These locations will be most prone to wildfires, though once again low wind speeds and gusts should aid in any firefighting/containment efforts. Still, much of SE Texas remains vulnerable to wildfires due to the dry conditions today. Those preforming land clearing should exercise caution, ensuring any fires are contained and have contingency plans should they grow out of control. Individuals should be mindful of equipment that could create unintended sparks, (i.e. loose chains) especially in areas with flammable surfaces. Easterly flow and rising moisture on Friday will lead to improved rain chances over the weekend. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 69 90 65 90 / 0 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 72 91 71 91 / 0 10 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 78 86 77 85 / 10 30 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fowler AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...Fowler