FXUS64 KHGX 192328 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 628 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid weather through at least mid-week. - NHC has initiated advisories for Tropical Depression Two. Much uncertainty with the forecast at the moment, but it may approach Southeast Thursday into Friday as a Tropical Storm. See the Tropical Discussion for more. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 This discussion will touch on Tropical Depression Two, but a more in-depth discussion is found below in the Tropical Section. -- High pressure remains dominate over SE Texas providing us with hot conditions through the next several days. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s through Monday with possible triple digit temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday. Heat indicies will be rising into the 100-105 degree range through Tuesday, and may approach 107-108 degrees on Wednesday as higher humidity moves in from the coast. This aforementioned high pressure will be keeping Tropical Depression Two out in the eastern Gulf through midweek, but this high pressure may retreat far enough north to allow TD Two (then Tropical Storm Bertha) to slide westward along the Gulf Coast on the underside of the high pressure system. This would bring Tropical Storm Bertha to the southeast Texas coast Thursday into Friday. Exactly when this westward shift happens and the exact location of the meandering tropical system when it does will lead to large changes in the forecast later this week, so please continue to monitor for future updates. At this point, the earliest reasonable time of arrival of tropical storm force winds in our coastal waters would be late Wednesday evening, but the most likely is Thursday morning. This is looking to be a fairly quick moving system, and is expected to be to our west by Friday evening into Friday night. Fowler && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. There may be a FEW cloud deck at 015-025 overnight, but should stay away from MVFR conditions on the cigs. The exception could be CXO, a normally fog-prone terminal, which could see fog again late tonight. For now, kept conditions above MVFR restrictions, but will reassess in later forecasts. Winds generally out of the S/SW around 5-10 kt through the next 24 hours. Young && .MARINE... Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Through Tuesday, expect dry and hot conditions. Winds should generally be from the southwest ~10-15 knots. Sea breeze processes may back winds to a more southerly direction during the afternoon. Seas are expected to average 2-3 feet. By Wednesday, the area may feel the early effects of a tropical system. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories for Tropical Depression Two in the northeast Gulf. By Wednesday, it is expected to be a tropical storm in the vicinity of southeast Louisiana. The gradient could steepen enough to increase winds to 15-20 knots and offshore seas up to 4 feet by Wednesday. The forecast becomes quite uncertain beyond Wednesday and will depend on the behavior of the aforementioned tropical system. At a minimum, there is an increasing chance of Small Craft winds and seas, along with the potential for squally conditions on by Thursday into Friday (possibly Wednesday evening for offshore zones). Tropical storm conditions (at least in rainbands) are possible on Thursday and Friday if the storm manages to track south of Louisiana. Mariners are advised to monitor the forecast for updates, as this is an evolving situation. Self && .TROPICAL... Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Two in the northeast Gulf of America. The system is gradually becoming better organized, producing a broad region of squally weather across the eastern and central Gulf. The system is expected to become a tropical storm as it drifts northwestward over the next couple of days. Beyond then, the forecast becomes quite tricky. However, there is a growing risk that the system will take a westerly turn, possibly bringing the system to SE Texas by Thursday. The forecast is tricky for a few reasons. First, the system remains in its early developmental stages. This stage is notorious for computer model errors. In addition, we are waiting for Hurricane Hunter aircraft data that will be crucial in assessing the system's future potential. There is also uncertainty regarding how much of a west versus southwest steering component will be provided by a building ridge to the north of the system later this week. A stronger ridge could keep the storm south of Louisiana and over the open Gulf, allowing the system more room for further organization. But a track farther north could place the system over Louisiana, limiting intensification. Regarding timing of possible impacts, we cannot rule out tropical storm conditions in outer rainbands as early as Wednesday evening over the Gulf waters, with a better chance of seeing more widespread rains, and potentially increased winds, by Thursday. But the scale and timing of the impacts will be very difficult to pin point so long as the uncertainty remains high. We will be able to assess these potential future impacts better as more data is obtained and as the system becomes a little better organized. Please stay tuned to forecast updates as this is an evolving situation. Self && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 74 95 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 75 97 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 81 91 80 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fowler AVIATION...Young MARINE...Self