FXUS64 KHGX 021940 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 140 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Much warmer today and tomorrow. - Chance of showers along and ahead of a front that will push through Tuesday afternoon and evening. - After a brief cool down to seasonal temperatures Wednesday- Thursday, expect a trend to above normal temperatures by week's end. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Increased ridging aloft and onshore flow at the surface is bringing in a warmer and more humid air mass today. We also have some moisture aloft streaming into the region from the southwest. You can thank that moisture for the clouds you see above. For those near the coast (especially near Matagorda), do not be surprised if you experience a brief rain shower this afternoon. Temperatures are much warmer today than recent. In fact, I'm wondering if I should boost my temperature grids upwards a few degrees given that current observations are already precariously close to my forecast highs (mid 60s to low 70s). The increasingly moist profile will prevent temperatures from tanking like they have recently, with overnight lows in the 50s. For Tuesday, afternoon highs are expected to range from the upper 60s in our northern, eastern, and coastal zones. Most elsewhere should rise into the 70s. The current ridging aloft will be short-lived. The polar jet stream will weaken and become somewhat split. A lobe of the jet will push southward over the central and southern plains Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, this will manifest as a cold front that will push through the region late Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Scattered shower activity is expected along and ahead of the front. The system will lack the arctic connection that we've seen in recent weeks. So we're not expecting a widespread freeze. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s on Wednesday and Thursday, with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. Perhaps our northern counties could manage a light freeze. Long range and deterministic guidance suggest a return to ridging over Texas by the weekend, suggesting warmer temperatures. The same data also suggests the presence of a robust mid/upper trough or low in SW CONUS, that could bring rain chances by Sunday or Monday of next week. For now, our grids do not feature Sunday/Monday PoPs. But I could see that changing if this feature remains in the guidance. Self && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 458 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Patchy fog has developed early today, generally west and southwest of the Houston metro area across the coastal plains. These areas (KLBX/KSGR) should see FLs as low as IFR/LIFR early today from pockets of fog. Visibility should improve after sunrise with VFR conditions returning during the daytime. Later tonight, CIGs should slowly fill in from the north, bringing MVFR conditions to sites around the houston area, and possibility IFR conditions further north across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area. Light showers should also develop during the daytime on Tuesday ahead of a cold front. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 100 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Onshore flow will gradually increase this afternoon through tonight. Winds are expected to increase enough (15-20 knots over the Gulf) to enhance seas and make nearshore and bay waters more choppy. We have issued Caution Flags over the Gulf waters for this evening through tomorrow morning. It is possible that areas offshore reach Small Craft Advisory criteria (Sustained winds 20+ knots and 6+ foot seas). The best chance of this occurring is 20NM or more offshore. Winds should decrease by Tuesday afternoon ahead of an approaching front. The front is expected to bring a chance of scattered showers along a ahead of the boundary Tuesday afternoon and night. We cannot rule out patchy fog ahead of the front Tuesday evening. Typically, the expected moisture levels would not be considered sufficient for sea fog. But the cold ocean temperatures could lower moisture thresholds needed for fog. Thus, we have kept patchy fog in the forecast for now. Winds increase from the north behind the front. Caution flags will likely be warranted on Wednesday and Thursday. Could not rule out advisories in the Gulf. Winds are expected to decrease Friday, and become more south to southwest by the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 58 71 42 63 / 10 50 10 0 Houston (IAH) 58 70 47 64 / 10 70 50 0 Galveston (GLS) 57 64 51 61 / 0 50 80 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Low Water Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 6 PM CST this evening through Tuesday morning for GMZ350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...03 MARINE...Self