FXUS64 KHGX 191106 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 606 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and dry conditions to prevail. - Heat will be hazardous and near advisory criteria through early next week. Regardless of whether an advisory is in effect on any given day, heat precautions/messaging remain the same for those with plans or working outdoors. - Guidance hinting at possible disturbance that could bring a chance of a few showers or thunderstorms Friday evening. Chance of rain is considered low at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1139 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026 A mid/upper, zonally elongated ridge centered over Texas has begun its westward drift and is amplifying as it does so. The primary impact this will have on the Wednesday atmosphere is a gradual shallowing of LL onshore flow. Tuesday featured deeper onshore flow (sfc to at least 500 MB), allowing for more cumulus and even a few isolated showers/storms on the sea breeze boundary. But we expect the mid-levels (~500MB) to shift to a more northerly trajectory later on Wednesday, which would have a tendency to lessen cumulus and decrease (though perhaps not totally eliminate) the chance of isolated sea breeze showers and storms. The high should amplify further, deepening the northerly flow aloft down to 850MB and limiting onshore flow to near the sfc. This will support an increasingly dry profile, allowing for lower dew points to mix down to the surface. But on the flip side, drier air along with less cumulus and stronger ridging will likely give temperatures a boost, with most inland areas expected to rise above 100 degrees Thursday through the weekend. Despite the potential for less humidity, actual temperatures could approach Heat Advisory criteria (actual temp 103+, heat index 108+) in some areas. One little wild card in the forecast entails vort maxes embedded in the northerly flow aloft that could provide enough lift for some shower and thunderstorm activity by the end of the week / weekend. Some of the guidance is picking up on a potential disturbance Friday evening. So we can't totally rule out this pattern producing isolated showers/storms despite the overall dry and hot signal. The dry and hot pattern is expected to continue into next week. So brace yourselves for continued hazardous heat. August is gonna August. Self && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026 Cloud decks around 900-1800 ft have developed this morning with some isolated spots of MVFR CIGS. CIGS will clear out and decks will lift with daytime heating this morning. VFR Conditions prevail throughout the daytime with winds shifting S/SE in the afternoon. Winds slowly diminish in the evening, shifting SW overnight. FEW/SCT cloud decks around 1000-2000 ft develop early Thursday morning with brief MVFR CIGS in spots. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026 Light to moderate south to southwest winds are expected through early next week. Winds could gust up to 20 knots during the late afternoon and evening in the bays, and overnight into the early morning hours in the Gulf. Seas in the open Gulf are expected to average 2-4 feet && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 101 77 102 78 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 100 79 100 80 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 91 84 91 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...03 MARINE...CMW