FXUS64 KHGX 131626 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1126 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scatter to Widespread showers/storms early this week. Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall today and Tuesday. Ponding on roadways and street flooding will be possible. - Hot weather returns during the second half of the week with highs in the upper 80s/90s and heat indicies in the 90s/triple digits. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1112 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Southeast Texas remains engulfed within a deep tropical airmass today with satellite derived PWs around 2.0-2.2 inches. A robust ridge is currently situated over the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi River Valley, though a trough over the SE CONUS is anticipated to undercut it, pushing southwesterly towards our area. This features is progged to push a slow moving frontal boundary into southeast Texas later today, eventually stalling out. Forcing from the front, in addition to midlevel PVA from the trough, will continue to bring scattered to widespread showers/storms through the early evening. The general pattern across CAMs depict another round of convection pushing in from the north along the aforementioned frontal boundary. This cluster is progged to eventually collide with the activity already ongoing over SE Texas, likely outputting higher rainfall rates wherever it occurs. Regardless, the environment is already primed for high precipitation efficiency, and thus locally heavy rainfall may occur as a result. A lull in rains is expected to develop this evening as daytime heating and instability wanes. Some drier air filters in aloft, generally above 400mb, but otherwise mid/low level RH remains very moist with PWs still around/over 2.0 inches for Tuesday. With the stalled frontal boundary and trough still draped over SE Texas, the heavy rainfall threat should continue with scattered/widespread storms expected throughout the daytime hours on Tuesday. Storms should taper off into the evening again, much like the day before. WPC has southeast Texas largely under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of Excessive rainfall for today and Tuesday. Rainfall totals through Tuesday night are expected to be around 1-3" but locally higher amounts could reach 3-7" in spots. Ponding on roadways and street flooding could occur, especially in urban/low lying areas with poor drainage. If you encounter flood waters, turn around! The heavy rainfall threat decreases into Wednesday as forcing & instability are reduced. Rain chances will taper off during the second half of the work week as ridging builds overhead. Conditions then gradually heat up in the days following with highs reaching the upper 80s/90s with heat indices in the 90s/triple digits. Rain chances are currently slim, though some very isolated streamer showers could develop during the overnight/early morning hours. 03 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Some patchy MVFR cigs continue this morning near CLL to CXO, but these should quickly lift back to VFR in the next couple hours. SHRA and TSRA will develop near the coast in a few hours, pushing northward through the Houston metro terminals. Meanwhile, SHRA/TSRA will also be developing near the northern terminals (CLL, UTS, CXO), pushing southward. These clusters will likely collide somewhere near IAH/DWH and nearby sites. This will continue through the afternoon, slowly waning into the evening hours. Cigs will drop to MVFR/IFR north of the Houston metro, though IAH and DWH will be right on the edge of MVFR/VFR. The southern terminals will likely remain VFR. SHRA and possibly TSRA will redevelop late in the period into Tuesday morning near the coast, migrating inland again through the morning hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1112 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 S to SE winds around 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected throughout the week. Round of showers and thunderstorms are expected through mid week, generally during the daytime hours. Some occasional strong storms could produce locally higher winds, seas and reduced visibility from heavy rainfall. Rain chances decrease Wednesday and taper off into Thursday, though very isolated streamer showers will remain possible during the overnight and early morning hours. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 83 72 86 / 70 90 40 70 Houston (IAH) 74 83 75 88 / 60 80 30 70 Galveston (GLS) 80 88 83 89 / 50 80 30 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Young MARINE...03