FXUS64 KHGX 300503 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1203 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected today, especially in our northern zones. Isolated more intense cells will be capable of producing hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy downpours. - Strong late season cold front, and associated rain/storms, will push through the area Friday and Friday night followed by much cooler and breezy conditions in its wake. - Strong winds (possible gales) and 6-12ft seas are expected in the coastal waters Friday night into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 Thursday's set up is quite similar to Wednesday. We will have a frontal boundary draped across the CWA. The exact position of this boundary is somewhat uncertain, but it's expected to be in the vicinity of the I-10 corridor. This could provide a focal for at least some shower/thunderstorm development on Thursday. But if Thursday is anything like Wednesday, then the best lift for deep convection will be associated with the vort maxes embedded in the flow aloft, which will more likely favor convection in our northern counties. PoPs north of the Houston Metro area are generally 50-60%, I-10 corridor roughly around 30-40%, and coastal areas 20-30%. With deep convection favored north of the front, the primary concern will be hail, lightning, and localized flooding. By Thursday night into Friday, a mid/upper low in SW CONUS will eject eastward, amplifying the subtropical jet over our region. The flow aloft will be increasingly diffluent, favoring large scale lift. Meanwhile at the surface, the frontal boundary will sag southward as a moderately strong sfc high pushes southward in its wake. Winds behind the front will increase from the north, bringing a strengthening CAA regime to the region. Overrunning in the mid and upper levels will likely result in widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms north of the front. Periods of moderate to heavy rain are likely. Bulk shear will favor some deep convection. Therefore, we cannot rule out a thunderstorm capable of hail north of the front. But conditions along and south of the boundary could become quite favorable for severe thunderstorms, particularly Friday morning into early afternoon. The tricky part is determining exactly where the boundary will be at this time. It could be near the coast or offshore, keeping the strongest storms over the Gulf. But it could be over our coastal counties, which would increase the severe thunderstorm threat near the coast. Temperatures on Friday are quite tricky. Areas ahead of the front could make a run for the 80 degree mark, while areas north of the front drop into the 50s. Current forecast high temperatures range from upper 50s in our northern Piney Woods zones to mid/upper 60s along I-10 and mid/upper 70s at the beaches. But with clouds, rain, and CAA, I could see downward adjustments in expected temperatures on Friday behind the front. The system exits the region late Friday, yielding to a beautiful weekend. Highs this weekend are expected to be in the 70s, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s (60s at the beaches). Enjoy the cool weather while you can! Temperatures and humidity should increase as we head into next week. Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 Confidence has lowered on potential for TSRA affecting the terminals tonight so have removed mention of thunder from the TAFs. Have maintained VCSH through Thursday morning for KCLL/KUTS/KCXO. The primary issue tonight/Thursday will be low ceilings and fog developing in the wake of the cold front as it moves slowly south across the area. The front has passed KCLL/KUTS and is expected to move slowly across the Houston terminals 04-08Z before stalling. Ceilings will lower to MVFR/IFR levels tonight north of the front and will persist through Thursday. Visibilities of 3-6SM are likely in patchy fog as well. South of the front KLBX/KGLS will see MVFR ceilings overnight improving to VFR by 18Z Thursday. 35 && .MARINE... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 A few showers and storms are possible on Thursday along with continued southeasterly flow, though there could be a weak land breeze in the morning. A strong late season cold front is expected to push into the region on Friday, bringing a chance of rain and thunderstorms on Friday and Friday night. A few stronger thunderstorms are possible on Friday, capable of producing large hail, gale force winds, and even a waterspout. In addition, the front will bring strong winds and building seas. Winds are expected to increase from the east early Friday, before shifting northward and increasing further Friday night. Winds of 25 to 35 knots are expected, along with rough bay waters and Gulf seas up to 8-12 feet. Gale force winds (at least in gusts) are expected Friday night into Saturday morning. Some of the more aggressive model guidance suggest winds could occasionally gust over 40 knots. Conditions should gradually improve Saturday afternoon through Sunday. By Monday- Tuesday, the pattern should return to light- moderate onshore flow regime. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 84 67 76 60 / 50 30 40 80 Houston (IAH) 90 72 82 64 / 30 30 40 70 Galveston (GLS) 82 75 81 70 / 20 10 30 50 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...35 MARINE...Self