FXUS64 KHGX 101930 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 130 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon, mainly along and south of I-10. - Additional round of showers and storms is expected this evening through early Wednesday. A few storms could become strong to severe with hail and heavy downpours as the main risk. - Cold front is expected Wednesday night followed by drier cooler weather for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 125 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Periods of showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and move east-northeastward across portions of SE Texas early this afternoon. Latest satellite imagery and surface observations show the upper lvl trough moving over TX/south Plains, while at the surface, a coastal trough moves northeastward along the Middle TX coast. With increasing WAA, and bulk shear of 40 to 55 knots, isolated hail (up to 1") will be possible with any strong cells through late this afternoon and evening. The best potential for stronger showers and storms will remain roughly along and south of I-10, which is where the best moisture availability persists. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity this evening and overnight as the trough lifts northward along the Upper TX coast. Therefore, we will continue to monitor areas from Conroe coastward for additional convection redevelopment this evening and overnight. With decent dynamics aloft, bulk shear and cool mid-level temperatures; a risk of isolated hail will remain possible with the strongest storms. SPC highlights this threat in their Day 1 outlook for severe weather with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5). Showers and storms should gradually taper off after sunrise Wednesday as the main forcing and sfc convergence move out of the region. Skies will slowly clear out from the northwest, though cloud cover may persist over the coastal zones. Highs will generally be in the 70s with some locations reaching the low 80s across our far northern counties. A low over the northeastern CONUS will drag a cool dry front that will enter the region late Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing drier northerly air. This surge of cooler air will be felt more through the night with overnight lows dropping into the mid 40s to upper 50s by Friday morning and Saturday morning. Ridging aloft breaks down later this weekend as a mid to upper low/trough moves across the Plains. This will result in the return of rain and storm chances Sunday into early next week. JM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1134 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Isol showers continue to move across the region from west to east, mainly south of I-10. These are anticipated to last through the afternoon. The strongest convection is anticipated to remain out offshore; therefore, TS remains out of TAFs for today. Outside of any -SHRA, VFR persists today with LGT and VRB winds. The next round of showers are anticipated to cross the region later this evening into early Wednesday, bringing an an increasing chance of TS. TS currently remains out of the PROB30 due to conflicting guidance, but will be monitored as the TAF cycles continue. MVFR-IFR CIGS/VIS are conducive becoming the main flight impacts overnight into Wednesday. After showers taper off, VFR returns with LGT and VRB winds. CMW && .MARINE... Issued at 125 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026 Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon, and will persist through the evening and overnight hours. This is in response of an approaching coastal trough that will continue to lift northward along the Middle and Upper TX coast through early Wednesday. The environment will continue to be conducive for strong thunderstorms capable of producing hail, heavy downpours and lightning. The best potential for strong storms will be later this evening through early Wednesday morning. A cool front will move through the bays and coastal waters Wednesday night into Thursday morning, resulting in moderate offshore winds and seas up to 4 ft (well offshore). Light onshore winds resume by early Friday. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 57 79 56 / 10 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 76 61 78 61 / 20 60 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 75 67 74 65 / 20 60 50 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 2 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ330-350-370. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...CMW MARINE...JM