FXUS64 KHGX 231113 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 613 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms today with the best chances south of I-10. - Hot but less humid are expected Thursday and Friday as backdoor frontal boundary moves through. - Rain chances return early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026 A strong mid to upper level ridge centered over Texas will continue to dominate weather conditions over the next several days. While subsidence aloft remains strong, daytime heating, seabreeze interaction and an approaching front will result in isolated to widely scattered showers and storms today. A few strong storms capable of producing brief downpours cannot be ruled out. Hot conditions will continue with highs in the mid to upper 90s. We're monitoring the aforementioned quasi-stationary front extending just to our north. It will eventually become more backdoor and finally push over the region late tonight into Thursday. This front won't bring a big change in temperatures, but at least it will gift us with less humidity. Sfc dew points will gradually drop into the 60s and upper 50s on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will generally remain in the low to mid 90s, but with less humidity. Little to no rain is expected to close out the workweek as drier air filters in behind the front. The mid to upper level ridge flattens a bit and slightly shifts WSW over the weekend and into the upcoming week. At the same time, a trough over the Pacific Northwest will deepen and expand eastward across the Western CONUS, bringing a few disturbances/vort maxes across the southern Plains/Lower MS Valley Sunday and Monday. Rain chances will depend on the final track/position of these impulses of energy and the amount of moisture. Latest guidance shows PWATs into the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range during this period, so isolated showers/storms cannot be ruled out at least for our northern counties. We're keeping an eye on of the next trough and associated surface front that could potentially bring changes in temperatures and increased rain and storm chances by mid-week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026 Light winds this morning will strengthen and become east to southeasterly in the afternoon. Isolated storms could develop at times, mainly during the afternoon, though chances are still too low to warrant inclusion with the current TAF cycle. Winds will become light and variable tonight. Outside of brief patchy fog during the early morning, VFR conditions should prevail throughout the TAF period. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026 Light to moderate onshore winds (E to ESE) and seas around 1 to 3ft will prevail today. Isolated showers/storms are possible overnight into the morning hours over the Gulf waters, developing around the bays in the afternoon. A dry frontal boundary will move over the coastal waters tonight, bringing moderate easterly winds. Caution Flags will be possible late tonight into Thursday. Light to occasionally moderate winds resume on Friday and will persist into the weekend with a daily risk of isolated showers and storms. Increasing rain and storm chances are expected by the upcoming week. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 98 76 97 72 / 10 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 97 79 95 75 / 20 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 91 83 91 82 / 20 10 20 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...03 MARINE...JM