FXUS64 KHGX 300548
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1248 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be running 2-5F above normal today and Monday,
  then a bit closer to seasonable norms after that.

- NHC is monitoring an area of weak low pressure and disorganized
  precipitation over the north central Gulf. Though chances are
  not currently overly high for significant development, it's that
  time of year to keep an eye on things at regular intervals.

- Rain chances should increase Tue-Wed, followed by daily chances
  for isolated to scattered precipitation for the rest of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

GOES Total PW product shows 1.4-1.6" precipitable water values 
across the region (not too high for this time of year). With flat 
ridging across the Southern Plains expanding into the Tennessee 
Valley, lower end moisture availability and subsistence should 
keep rain chances more isolated in nature and mainly associated 
with the afternoon seabreeze/baybreeze through Monday.

There is an area of troffiness situated between the ridges across 
the ncntl/ne Gulf Coast. NHC is monitoring a weak surface low 
pressure area off the coasts of AL/MS/LA. Both the mid/upper trof 
and potential sfc low should track wwd under the ridging 
described above and toward the western Gulf Tue-Wed. Though the 
general environmental conditions (and the lows fcst proximity to 
the coast) aren't especially favorable for substantial tropical 
development, they're not horrible either. Residents should monitor
the latest forecasts for any changes...but right now we expect an
uptick in moisture levels and much needed rain chances Tue-Wed as
they move closer to the area.

Mid-upper ridging pulls a bit further NNE later in the week. Lower 
heights and a prevalent onshore flow should allow for mostly 
seasonable wx and daily chances of diurnally driven precip. It 
appears that we might see another easterly wave track across the 
Gulf late in the week or next weekend...though timing/details are 
not yet quite on the same page in the longer range guidance.  47

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

With the exception of some brief, isolated patches of late night
and early morning MVFR cigs/vis (mainly west of the metro), VFR
conditions will persist. There may be an isolated afternoon
shra/tsra or two near the coast, but chances are too low to 
mention at any individual site. 

CMW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Light winds and low seas will prevail for much of the week. There is 
an area of weak low pressure and disorganized precipitation across 
the northern Gulf coast that the National Hurricane Center is 
monitoring. Though chances of significant development are somewhat 
low, mariners should monitor the latest forecasts. Shower and 
thunderstorm development will probably increase across parts of the 
upper Texas coast Tuesday and Wednesday as some of this deeper 
moisture makes its way into the area. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  98  75  98  76 /   0  10  10   0 
Houston (IAH)			  98  79  97  79 /  20  10  20  30 
Galveston (GLS)			  91  83  91  84 /  20  10  20  40 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...CMW
MARINE...47