FXUS64 KHGX 030532 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Closely monitoring weather for the the Independence Day with increased heat stress expected. - Hot Weather continues with peak heat index values reaching 100- 107F (38-42C). - Daily rain chances. Light streamer showers possible in the morning, then scatters/isolated storms during the afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 The larger synoptic pattern remains consistent with little change in the position of the stout ridge across the eastern U.S. The 00z Canadian analyzed a broad region of 597dm across the eastern Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Closer to home, we saw isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms yesterday afternoon, some of which were strong. Current conditions show mostly clear skies and light winds across the region. The weak impulse that brought scattered showers and thunderstorms to our region yesterday has moved inland. MIMIC-TPW has shown that Precipitable Water has decreased across our area with the richer moisture moving off to the northeast. This will help keep showers and thunderstorms isolated over the next couple of days. As we head into Sunday and Monday, model guidance begins to show the stout ridge breakdown over the eastern U.S. As a new ridge begins to build to our west, a southeasterly moving mid-level impulse across north Texas may help trigger showers and storms each afternoon. Heat continues to be the story for the region with additional hot days expected through the weekend. Only minor adjustments were made with this forecast package. The previous couple of days have seen us mix relatively efficiently, keeping dewpoints a touch lower than forecasted. The previous package introduced slightly lower dewpoints for today and on the Fourth of July, which was maintained with this forecast package. This lowers RH values slightly, which will keep maximum apparent temperatures from exceeding 107F (42C). We will continue to see heat indices between the 100-107F (38-42C) range through the weekend and into next week. This remains below Heat Advisory criteria. That said, necessary heat precautions still need to be carried out, including frequent hydration and breaks from the heat with shade/AC. We will continue to monitor the potential for a Heat Advisory over the coming days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 848 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026 Afternoon storms are on the decaying phase of their with most activity wrapping up across all terminals by 01Z. Thereafter, we return to VFR conditions. Light winds return overnight. Latest guidance brings MVFR CIGs back for inland locations, especially KDWH/KCXO. Further for terminals further to the south, FEW/SCT MVFR CIGs may be accompanied by brief patches of fog, but any reduction in VIS will be short lived through 14Z. S'ly winds then return along with the threat of additional seabreeze storms. Latest hi-res guidance keeps most of the activity closer to the coastal zones. Given the low confidence in the extent of these storms further inland, I have elected to keep the mention of TSRA/SHRA N of Texas Hwy 35, but we will have to monitor the overnight model runs to see if the next TAF package will need to append any rain/TS wording. In the afternoon, SE-SSE winds pick up to 7-12 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 Light S/SE winds around 10 knots and calm seas of 1 to 3 feet are expected throughout the next several days. Light streamer showers could develop over the Gulf waters each morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop along the sea breeze in the afternoon near the coastline and bays. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 96 77 95 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 78 96 78 95 / 10 10 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 82 90 82 89 / 10 10 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Williams AVIATION...Enriquez MARINE...Williams