FXUS64 KHGX 111108 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 608 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally stronger coastal/offshore thunderstorms capable of heavy rain and strong winds possible this morning until early afternoon. - Scattered, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast for the next several days. - High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s inland and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 Mid-upper trof from the Great Lakes to the OK/AR region should continue tracking eastward the next few days. Further south into our area, there remains a lingering trof/weakness/shear axis stretched across East Texas into the NW Gulf that will remain in the neighborhood a bit longer thru the weekend. Like the past several days, we're anticipating some scattered shower/tstm activity to develop offshore and near the coast before sunrise. Some of the 00z guidance suggests that a few of the embedded coastal cells could pack a punch between about 4am-1pm with 30-45mph wind gusts and heavy rain being the primary issue. In terms of heavy rain, wouldn't be surprised to see a few quick couple of inches of rain in a short time period near some of our coastal counties - albeit it should be quite localized and wherever any strongest activity materializes. This precip should eventually expand inland as the day progresses and we get more daytime heating. Guidance has generally underestimated the northward extent of precip movement the past several days, though the shear axis should be positioned a bit further southeast today and this weekend...which may end up limiting POPs across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. That said, feel better mentioning at least some low chances considering recent model performance and uncertainty. For the southern half of the area - more of the same wx thru the weekend. One thing folks might want to consider this weekend with outdoor plans (football games, etc) will be some warmer temperatures and peak afternoon heat index readings in the 105-108F range. Early next week, strengthening mid-upper ridge across the SE U.S. will expand westward back into Texas and force the current lingering weakness out of the area. With less cloudiness and lower (but non- zero) rain chances, look for temps to warm back up closer to the mid 90s for daytime highs and lows 74-80 into midweek. Then Thurs-Fri, another inverted trof tracks westward under the ridge and toward the western Gulf coast and possibly brings some higher rain chances back to the southern part of the area. 47 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 559 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 All sites at VFR this morning. SHRA/TSRA has developed along the coast this morning. Expect these showers and storms to move over LBX and GLS from the south over the next few hours. As the morning progresses, expect convection to push inland and become more scattered in coverage. Showers adn thunderstorms should taper off this evening with winds becoming light and variable overnight. Bailey && .MARINE... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026 Let's keep an eye out for some scattered strong thunderstorms near the coast and offshore between about sunrise to around 1pm. Heavy rain and localized winds gusts to, or above, 35 knots may be a possibility in isolated stronger cells. Otherwise, scattered late night through early afternoon showers and storms will remain in the forecast into next week. With a tightening pressure gradient, onshore winds will be a touch higher than they have been the past few days (mostly 10-15kt, but we could see some 15-20kt in the waters south and west of Freeport tonight). Seas should remain in the 2 to 4 foot range through the weekend. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 96 76 98 76 / 20 20 20 10 Houston (IAH) 92 78 95 78 / 60 20 30 10 Galveston (GLS) 90 82 91 83 / 80 20 30 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Bailey MARINE...47