FXUS64 KHGX 262341 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 641 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm conditions remain through Friday. - A weak/dry cool front will move through the region Friday night bringing lower humidity and slightly cooler temperatures. - A gradual uptick in moisture and temperatures can be expected heading into early next week. Maybe some slight rain chances during the second part of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026 The forecast remains on track. The mid to upper lvl ridge centered over the southwest CONUS/southern Rockies continues to influence our region, with dry and unseasonably warm conditions. As the pressure gradient tightens this afternoon, expect breezy southerly winds to persist until sunset. Tonight will remain quiet, though a combination of light winds and low level moisture will once again favor the development of patchy fog and low clouds from late tonight through mid/late Friday morning. By Friday, the ridge will continue to expand eastward across southeast TX while a surface cool front moves across the central Plains/CONUS. Ahead of this front, expect highs in the upper 80s to near 90s. The front is forecast to cross the region during the Friday evening to overnight timeframe. The boundary will be moisture- starved due to subsidence from the ridge aloft. Therefore, a dry passage is expected. The primary benefit of this FROPA will be the arrival of a drier airmass. Post-frontal surface dewpoints on Saturday are expected to range from the upper 30s (in the northern counties) to the upper 50s (coastal areas). By Sunday, the surface high will shift east, and onshore flow will resume, once again opening the door for a warm and moist Gulf airmass to return. Ridging aloft is expected to weaken by early next week. This will lead to less subsidence aloft and allow for the arrival of various vorticity maxima, increasing large-scale lifting across the region. While significant rainfall is not yet in the cards, we will see the introduction of low-end rain chances starting after Tuesday. Looking further ahead, toward the end of next week, a strong mid lvl trough is expected to move across the Pacific Northwest while downstream lee cyclogenesis develops over the Rockies, likely enhancing moisture transport and lift. This pattern will possibly result in increasing rain chances for our region heading into the Easter weekend. As it is too far out in the forecast period, details will change in future forecast updates as the main trough evolves over the CONUS. JM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026 VFR heading into the overnight hours with south winds losing their gustiness after sunset. Slightly drier air is in place compared to previous nights...so while we still do anticipate some stratus to return overnight, thinking is that it might be a bit more scattered in nature versus previous nights. Have included some prevailing MVFR conditions for the terminals north and west of the metro area around 9z. Should be noted some fcst soundings want to take CLL down to about 600ft at times. Otherwise, VFR areawide by mid morning Friday. Winds should be lighter out of the south, but have included a windshift to the NNE for CLL/UTS terminals during the late afternoon with the arrival of a weak shallow cold front that'll pass through the remainder of SE TX Friday night. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026 Benign marine conditions continue with light to occasionally moderate south to southeast winds and low seas. A dry cold front will enter the coastal waters late Friday night into early Saturday morning, bringing a wind shift to the northeast by Saturday. Winds will be near or at advisory levels with possible gusts up to 25 knots in the morning hours. Light SSE winds return by Sunday, persisting through the upcoming week. A pattern change is expected next week with the introduction of some low-end rain chances after Tuesday. Highest rain chances are possible towards the end of the upcoming week. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 63 87 59 75 / 0 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 65 88 62 78 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 69 78 64 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...47 MARINE...JM