FXUS64 KHGX 250554 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1154 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and humid conditions continue into the weekend. Temperatures will be in the vicinity of records, and a few isolated records may be tied or broken. - Through the weekend, expect nightly visibility reductions due to fog and sea fog, especially across the bays and coastal areas. The main threat for fog will be during the nighttime and morning hours. Afternoon fog should generally retreat offshore, but will quickly return to the coast towards sunset. - Strong cold front late Sunday night into Monday morning to bring much colder conditions Monday-Tuesday before gradually warming back up towards average heading into New Year's Eve. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1154 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 Then one foggy Christmas Eve, Santa came to say (ho ho ho) 'Rudolph with your nose so bright, Won't you guide me sleight tonight?' And yes...I really did strongly consider just pasting the lyrics to Rudolph in here and calling it a discussion. It would be a surprisingly not too terrible summary! The primary focus of the first half of the forecast remains on the near-record heat, high humidity, and nightly episodes of dense fog in the area, with an extra emphasis on the fog near the coast and over the waters. This is...not really going to change very much in the short term, and will likely carry on through most of the weekend with little change. Now, we are still looking for the ridging in place to begin to break down modestly in advance of the next front, but we are still looking at ridging so strongly above climatologically normal this time of year that it's simply not going to change the environment very much. There is maybe a little more hope for fog (big emphasis on little). But with winds veering more to southwesterly this weekend before the front arrives, we will be getting winds that aren't as favorable for big intrusions of sea fog. And...that flow does generally tend to be not quite as saturated, which model fields kinda...sorta...imply Friday and Saturday night? It's not a real clear signal, so it's probably more likely that this may just modestly improve the fog situation rather than clear things outright, but after this many days of the fog machine, I'll take what I can get at this point. The price for this? Well, if we do get some modestly drier air moving in just above the deck for the weekend, that will mix down in the afternoon and help temps warm up a bit more efficiently in the afternoon. Again, given the lack of broad change in the environment, the impact will be modest, but we could see highs around or just above 80 degrees get a little more widespread on Friday and Saturday, and might be enough to pick off another record or two. Ultimately, nothing will change significantly, and the hot temps and fog threat will not be out of the picture until a whole new airmass comes into the region behind a cold front. And, fortunately, that's just what we're looking at happening late Sunday! As the front moves through, we can look for some scattered showers and perhaps even a stray storm along the front, but the big story here is the temperature change. All signs point to a big temperature shift with this front, and highs from Sunday (assuming the front arrives late enough to not mess with those highs) to Monday could be in the ballpark of 30 degrees! And that sounds really cold, until you remember where we're coming from. But with our heat perch so high to begin with, the resultant place we land at is something seasonably chilly, 5ish degrees below average. But whatever scours out the heat and humidity and gives this native Wisconsinite even a seasonable SE Texas stretch to end the year, I will take it! Of course, it's not just about magnitude, but also duration. Mid- level ridging, but well weaker than what we just experienced, should build in for the mid-week. As a result, Monday through Tuesday should be the chilliest part of the week for us, with a gradual warming trend keeping things right around seasonal averages to close out 2025 and open up 2026. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 522 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 High humidity and daytime heating led to some isolated light showers developing between SGR and CXO this afternoon, but this activity will quickly end after sunset. Then, the main forecast concern for the remainder of the period is the return of yet another IFR to LIFR night due to low clouds and dense fog. These conditions have already returned to GLS where CIGs are down to 200ft and dense fog has reduced visibility down to 1/4 - 1/2mi. These conditions will spread further inland through the next several hours with LIFR conditions reaching HOU around 05z and then IAH around 06z. CLL and UTS may prevail as IFR with CIGs down to 600ft and patchy fog reducing visibility down to 2-4mi, but temporary periods of IFR to LIFR conditions will reach up there by 10z. Conditions improve through the day with clouds and fog scattering out/lifting through the morning. MVFR conditions return for most inland locations by 15-16z and then VFR by 17-19z, but patchy fog may linger at GLS into the early afternoon. Fog and low CIGs are expected to return Thursday night. Light south winds will prevail through the night, increasing in speed to around 6-9kt during the afternoon on Thursday, then dropping below 6kt again by sunset. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1154 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 Fog has roared back across the nearshore waters and into the bays this evening, with dense spots seen on numerous webcams and observations around the coast. Light onshore flow will keep fog in the forecast through the weekend, with the best chance of widespread fog occurring after sunset, through the overnight hours, and into the morning. With winds shifting a little more towards southwesterly this weekend, the poorer fetch may help partially disrupt the fog machine...but with dewpoints not expected to decrease much along with the wind shift, this is probably more in terms of getting some better improvement in the afternoon, and will not be able to clear fog out on its own. No, the fog threat will not be ended entirely until a strong cold front pushes offshore Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing strong winds and building seas in its wake. Gales may occur on the Gulf waters, and will become the next weather focus after this fog event comes to a close. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 64 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 66 81 65 81 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 65 73 66 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Thursday for TXZ200-214- 235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ330-335-350- 355. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchs AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...Luchs