FXUS64 KHGX 271130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
530 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northeast winds will continue to bring in cooler temperatures
  through the holiday. Expect a Thanksgiving with fair weather 
  and temperatures very near or just slightly below average.

- Onshore winds return Friday, along with warmer and more humid
  air to prepare the area for our next shot of rain and storms
  associated with our next front coming over the weekend.
  Monitoring the potential for isolated strong storms and heavy
  downpours.

- An even chillier airmass comes in following the weekend front,
  opening December on a cold note. For those north of the Houston
  metro, we may see the return of nights with temperatures
  reaching lows around or just below freezing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1033 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

The exciting part of this forecast is the noticeably cooler
temperatures...the sad part? These temperatures are considered
seasonal, so while it's a noticeable difference compared to what
we have been experiencing in SE Texas, our current airmass has 
merely brought us the temperatures we normally see this time of 
year. 

As mentioned by the previous forecaster, Thursday is looking to be
on the drier side...so might not be the time to try frying a
turkey for the first time...or at the very least, if you plan to
do so just make sure to steer clear of ignition sources and have a
means of extinguishing any flames quickly. Additionally, double
check local burn restrictions and be sure to comply with any burn
bans.

Temperatures and humidity will be on the rise again on Friday as
winds swing around to onshore and increase in speed. This will
provide a decent amount of moisture return (PWAT values are around
1.25" on Saturday) and our next shot at rain across SE Texas as
another cold front pushes through. WPC does have the entire area 
in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for Saturday. The 
factors at play are the ongoing drought and how fast this system 
progresses through the area. ECMWF is the wetter solution and has 
a longer duration of rainfall, while the GFS has the system moving
through a little more quickly with pockets of heavier rainfall. 
In any case, will need to monitor over the next couple of days as 
short- term models come into the picture to gauge the potential 
for excessive rainfall.

Further into the forecast period will be another shot of colder
air behind this weekend's front. Details of *how much* colder
are still pretty fuzzy. Ensembles show a faint signal and NBM is 
pulling in temperatures in the mid to upper 30s north of I-10 
Monday night and for more of the area Tuesday night and Wednesday 
night. NBM does tend to struggle with cold fronts at the start of
the season, so will be keeping an eye on trends over the coming
days in order to determine the probability of freezing
temperatures for more of SE Texas early next week. 

Daytime temperatures during the latter part of the weekend into
early next week appear to struggle to get out of the 50s with a
few locations across the northern counties struggling to even make
it into the 50s.

Again, this is LATE in the period, so it is important to not get
too hung up on values...but at the very least, be aware that
colder temperatures are on the horizon!

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR with light northeast winds today, veering to the east Friday.
47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1033 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Marine c conditions are not expected to become calm, but low 
enough that an advisory will no longer be needed...temporarily. At
the end of the week, onshore winds resume and an increase back to
advisory-level winds and seas appears likely for at least a 
portion of the weekend. The chances for showers and thunderstorms
increases going into the weekend.

Bailey

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  65  43  64  57 /   0   0   0  60 
Houston (IAH)			  65  45  67  57 /   0   0   0  40 
Galveston (GLS)			  67  59  71  64 /   0   0   0  30 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Bailey