FXUS64 KHGX 201139 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 639 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will persist, along side a 30 to 80 percent chance of patchy fog in the nighttime and early mornings. - A strengthening mid to upper level ridge will bring even hotter conditions today through Sunday with temperatures potentially reaching record-breaking values (including the first 90-degree days of the year at some locations). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 123 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Calm weather with unseasonable heat is still expected these next few days due to surface high pressure and ridging aloft. The upper level ridge remains over the southwest with midlevel heights topping off around 590-592 dam. Over our area, these midlevel heights still fall above the 99th percentile in both the GEFS M-Climate and NAEFS Climate percentiles, and are expected to remain around there through the rest of the forecast period. Today, 850mb temperatures will climb to around 14-18C, reaching upwards of 20C near the 90th to 99th percentile over the weekend based on NAEFS. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) is still showing values of 0.70-0.95 for max temperatures through the weekend, with shift of tales values approaching 1-2 over portions of eastern Texas during this period. This has been a very persistent signal as we enter a period west- southeasterly flow with low PWs generally below 0.75 inches. Unseasonable heat is still expected through the weekend with afternoon temperatures forecast to be around 10 to 20 degrees above normal. The aforementioned ridge should flatten early next week as some disturbances & impulses track north of the area. A weak cold front is anticipated to push towards SE Texas as Monday. This features still looks like it'll stall out around or just north of our CWA, but in either such case rain is unlikely. Quiet weather should continue, though we should see max temperatures decrease slightly during this period. Signs suggest that temperatures could rise again near the end of the work week as the ridge aloft strengthens. Overall warm conditions and slim rain chances are expected through the forecast period. Lows this morning should be in the 50s/60s, though afternoon temperatures today through Sunday are expected to be the hottest in the forecast period, reaching the upper 70s/lower 90s. High temperatures ease down slightly next week, but remain in the 70s/80s during the afternoon hours. Some isolated lower 90s will be possible during the later half of the next work week. 03 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Conditions bouncing from MVFR to LIFR in some areas this morning with areas of patchy dense fog. These areas of fog should burn off after sunrise, returning all terminals to VFR conditions. This holds through the majority of today before probabilities jump again on additional fog Friday night into Saturday morning, possibly more widespread. This could bring IFR to even LIFR vis and ceilings. && .MARINE... Issued at 123 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Light to moderate south-southwest winds and low seas are expected over the next several days. Rain chances remain slim throughout this period as high pressure looms in the vicinity. Patchy inland fog could spillover into portions in the upper bays and channels nightly. Will also have to monitor for patchy sea fog this weekend. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 88 60 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 86 63 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 77 65 79 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Self MARINE...03