FXUS64 KHGX 261115 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 515 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very cold temperatures and hazardous wind chills expected for your Monday morning commute. Lingering icy spots this morning will warrant cautious driving, especially in our northern and western counties. - A warming trend is expected through Thursday. However, another hard freeze is likely Monday night, with lighter freezes across much of the region on Tuesday and Wednesday night. - Strong cold front expected Friday. We will need to monitor hard freeze potential for the weekend. Too early to pin down exact temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1035 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 The rest of tonight promises to be very cold, blustery, and mostly cloudy. We can expect a widespread hard freeze and wind chills as low as 5 to 15 degrees through the night and into Monday morning, yielding to a very cold morning commute. Venturing out on Monday morning will require dressing in layers and being mindful of potential icy spots on roads (particularly in our northern and western counties). Forecasting the exact lows tonight is a tad trickier than normal given the clouds and weakening CAA. Current forecast lows range from the mid/upper 10s in our northern counties to low/mid 20s in our southern and coastal counties. But enough clearing or a tad more CAA could knock those temps down a few more degrees, while thicker clouds and less CAA could yield morning temps a few degrees higher. Regardless, it's frigid out there! Fortunately, I have some good news! We expect more sunshine on Monday, which will warm temperatures to above freezing for the vast majority of the CWA. It may take southern and coastal counties until late morning before being blessed by the sun's presence. Many locations near and south of I-10 could make a run for the 40 degree mark. Some of our northern zones may only warm to or slightly above freezing. Strong sfc high pressure and clear skies will allow for efficient radiational cooling Monday night. The only wild card will be the gradual introduction of mid/upper level (500-300mb) Pacific moisture that may attempt to throw some thin clouds our way. For now, I'm assuming clear skies. Cold rural spots are expected to drop well down into the 10s. For the City of Houston, lows could be as cold as the mid/upper 10s in some outer suburbs to mid 20s in the heart of the heat island. Mid 20s to low 30s expected near the coast. Despite the very cold forecast temperatures Monday night into Tuesday, we may technically remain above Extreme Cold Warning criteria. Therefore, we will need to revisit the warning in future updates. Expect "warmer" conditions on Tuesday. But by "warmer" I mean afternoon temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s. And remember that 500-300 MB moisture? We'll have to see if more clouds end up throwing a wrench on our high temperature forecast. We continue to expect a general warming trend through Thursday. But another strong cold front could be in the cards by week's end, with some potential for more sub-freezing temperatures by the weekend. The front is forecast to bring a chance of rain on Friday. It's too early to determine how cold temperatures will be over the weekend. But a hard freeze is on the table for parts of SE Texas. We'll know more as the week progresses. Self && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 515 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 MVFR ceilings to start the morning, but cloud cover will be on a decreasing trend from north to south going into the early afternoon. Northern terminals are clearing out early this morning (~12Z), the Houston metro areas are expected to clear out around 16-18Z, and coastal terminals are expected to clear out around 18-20Z. Breezy northerly winds prevail throughout the day with sustained winds in the 10-15 kt range with 20-25 kt gusts. Winds will trend towards light and variable after sunset and prevail into Tuesday. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1035 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Strong north to northwest winds, choppy to rough bay waters, and 6-10 ft Gulf seas will likely keep marine conditions hazardous through the rest of today. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through the rest of the day on Monday. Winds and seas should gradually taper starting later today, becoming much lighter by Tuesday. Water levels are expected to be problematically low during low tide on Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday. The lowest levels are expected to occur in upper bays, where levels could drop 1 to 1.5 feet below MLLW. Lower bays and the beaches could approach 1 foot below MLLW. A strong cold front could is expected to bring hazardous winds and seas by week's end. Some uncertainty regarding the strength of the winds. But at the very least, expect Small Craft Advisory level conditions by Friday and Saturday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1220 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Record low temperatures: January 26: Houston Intercontinental (IAH): 23 (1943) Houston Hobby (HOU): 24(1940) Galveston (GLS): 25 (1940) Palacios (PSX): 30 (1961) January 27: Houston Intercontinental (IAH): 19 (1897) Houston Hobby (HOU): 18 (1940) Galveston (GLS): 21 (1897) Palacios (PSX): 29 (1976) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 34 15 42 21 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 39 23 49 28 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 41 35 51 42 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for TXZ163-164- 176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338- 436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ330-335. Low Water Advisory until 3 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ335. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355- 370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Self