FXUS64 KHGX 130510 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1210 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - An isolated shower/thunderstorm or two remains a small possibility today, but the vast majority of the area will remain dry. - Slightly higher chances of rain on Friday as a brief surge of deeper Gulf moisture moves into the area. - August heat will continue. Heat index values may flirt around Heat Advisory criteria at times for some locations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Clear skies becoming partly cloudy overnight for areas along and north of I-10, along with patchy fog developing in isolated spots. Warm nighttime temperatures will persist across Southeast TX with lows generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Slightly drier conditions expected today as PWs decrease, and with the mid-upper level ridge to our east, chance for rain will be limited. We might see an shower or two pop up, but most of the area is expected to remain fairly dry and hot. Speaking of hot, the high temperatures will once again peak in the mid to upper 90s inland and the lower to mid 90s over the coastal locations. Heat indices will range between 103-107 for much of Southeast TX, with a few isolated spots possibly seeing indices as high as 110 degrees. The local pressure gradient will tighten this afternoon, resulting in south winds at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph. Although the winds will help with the "feel" of the heat, do not underestimate the effects of heat stress when working or spending time outdoors for extended periods. Rain chances could increase Friday as a surge of moisture and a few vort maxes move in from the western Gulf waters. Although a mid-upper level low is expected to move across northwestern Mexico during the day, the western edge of the mid-upper level ridge to our east may be of higher influence and limit some of the rain development over our CWA. For now, I have kept 15-25% PoPs for the morning hours and 20-30% PoPs in the afternoon as diurnal heating peaks and instability increases. We might see the stronger activity flare up near and along the seabreeze. Based on the expected PWs (1.8-2.1 inches), strong storms could produce brief periods of heavy rainfall at times. Due to a slight increase in cloud coverage and the potential for rain, the highs may lower one or two degrees. I know, not much right? But...hopefully we get another breezy afternoon to help with this blazing Houston heat. Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected this upcoming weekend into early next week as PWs lower again and heat indices remain between 104-108 degrees. Make sure to keep protecting yourself, your loved ones, and your pets safe from the heat :). Cotto && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 A fairly similar forecast is expected through Thursday with breezy southerly winds through around sunset with gusts to around 20kt and then diminishing to around 5-8kt overnight. The wind gusts of 18-23kt will return by the late morning to early afternoon with sustained southerly winds around 12-15kt that persist through sunset Thursday. Most of the region should remain VFR through the entire period, but lingering low-level moisture may result in the return of MVFR conditions for CLL, UTS, and CXO late tonight into early Thursday morning (10-14z timeframe) with CIGs around 2000ft. Patchy fog will also be possible, mainly at CXO, that could result in occasional IFR conditions. Slightly higher winds tonight compared to last night should limit the longevity of fog or CIGs compared to last night. Any low CIGs or fog that develops should scatter out shortly after sunrise giving way to VFR conditions area-wide. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible tomorrow morning along the coast, but coverage will be too low to include in any TAF. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Caution flags are in effect for the bays and Gulf waters through late Thursday night for light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 3-5 feet. Winds are expected to be mostly light with seas of 2-3 feet for the upcoming weekend through early next week. Chance for showers and storms can be expected Friday as a surge of moisture moves in from the western Gulf waters. The rest of the forecast period should remain fairly dry. Cotto && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 99 77 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 97 79 97 79 / 30 0 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 91 84 92 84 / 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late Thursday night for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cotto AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...Cotto