FXUS64 KHGX 190522 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1222 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 ...New FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very dry and breezy conditions today will enhance the fire risk. Red Flag Warnings may be needed. - A brief push of cooler air will give a fall-like feel to the air Sunday night. Enjoy it while it lasts. - Generally speaking, the forecast through the next week is mostly dry and skews warmer than normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Cold front is pushing through our region this morning. In the front's wake, expect gusty north to northeast winds and much drier air. Most areas north of I-10 are expected to have dew points drop into the 40s by the afternoon, with Brazos Valley counties possibly dropping into the 30s. Temperatures across southeast Texas are expected to average in the low/mid 80s this afternoon, but our northern Piney Woods areas may stay in the 70s whle our southwest counties near Matagorda could still push 90. Some of the hi-res guidance that was most aggressive on "CAA" has backed off somewhat since yesterday. But the HREF probability of gusts over 30 MPH is still quite high, near 100 percent in the Brazos Valley, 40-60 percent in the Houston area, and 60-80 percent over the bays and the Gulf. Best chance of gusts over 30 MPH will be during the mid morning to early afternoon hours. Our western counties, particularly the Brazos Valley counties, are forecast to be close to Red Flag Warning criteria. Most areas are expected to drop into the 50s tonight. A taste of Fall during what should be actual Fall. Southeast flow resumes on Monday, gradually increasing moisture levels through Tuesday as well as cranking temperatures back towards the 90 degree mark. A frontal boundary is expected to push through SE Texas on Tuesday, bringing a chance of isolated to scattered showers (most expected to remain dry). Less hot and drier air moves back in by Wednesday in the front's wake. But onshore flow returns again by Thursday, bringing back the mugginess and keeping temperatures warmer than normal. We'll have fall....one day... Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 557 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 We have entered a lull in the shower and thunderstorms activity for today, but we are expecting additional scattered showers and storms to redevelop in the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region late this evening/tonight as a cold front moves in from the northwest. We are not anticipating a solid line of thunderstorms to accompany this front, but more of a broken line of showers and thunderstorms that will be decreasing in strength as it slides through the area. Have VCSH and TEMPOs of TS for CLL and UTS generally between 02-04z, then a VCSH with PROB30 of TS for CXO between 03-05z, and just a PROB30 of SHRA for IAH between 04-07z. The line of storms should dissipate before reaching I-10, so do not mention any precipitation for the southern terminals. There will be a period of light winds and lingering moisture near dawn Sunday morning, so some patchy fog or low CIGs may be possible - but otherwise expect VFR conditions to prevail. Breezy southerly winds will persist through this evening with speeds around 8-12kt and occasionally higher gusts. Again a period of light variable to northerly winds are expected late tonight into early Sunday morning, but then gusty northerly winds are expected to develop by the mid-morning hours. Wind speeds around 10-15kt with gusts to 25kt (and higher at the coast) will be possible through the mid afternoon before the winds begin to lower by Sunday evening. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 A frontal boundary pushes offshore this morning, bringing gusty north to northeast winds in its wake today. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 7AM to 7PM on Sunday due to the potential for 15-25 knot winds, choppy bay waters, and Gulf seas approaching 6 feet in some areas. Winds could occasionally gust over 30 knots. Winds gradually decrease this afternoon, then veer southeast by Monday. We expected winds to mostly be from the southeast this upcoming week. However, a period of northeasterly flow is possible behind a frontal boundary on Wednesday. Onshore flow could become moderate to strong at times later in the week as the low-level gradient steepens. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025 Breezy and much drier conditions move into the region behind a frontal boundary today. Widespread minimum afternoon RH values between 20 and 30 percent expected today, with some areas in the Brazos Valley dropping below 20. Near the coast, those values are expected to remain near 40 percent. Meanwhile, north to northeast winds will be gusty, possibly gusting as high as 30 MPH at times, with widespread gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range. Conditions are expected to be very near Red Flag Warning criteria in our western and Brazos Valley counties. A warning may be warranted. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 52 91 66 88 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 56 88 69 91 / 0 0 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 71 83 76 86 / 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...Self