FXUS64 KHGX 022341 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 541 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Abnormally low water levels in Galveston Bay will continue through the weekend. Continued low water is likely due to the very low astronomical tides occurring. - Our next cold front looks to arrive early this weekend, will be a weak front. There is a very low chance - less than 15 percent for brief, light showers, with a modest dip in temperatures for the weekend. With forecast highs in the 70s, even post- frontal temps will be above average. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1231 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 A weak cold front will move through the area Saturday morning, bringing a slightly cooler airmass in its wake. Highs will remain above the seasonal normal; however, expect temperatures to be a few degrees cooler than today. Most of the area will top out in the 70s. A few locations in the northern Piney Woods may dip into the upper 60s while locations closer to Jackson/Matagorda may top out in the low 80s. With PWAT values in the 90th percentile, a few stray showers may be possible (if enough lift can be acquired). Otherwise, this front is expected to be a dry front as it moves through. Ridging will build back in over Mexico going into the next week. This will lead to another warming trend across SE Texas. Highs will generally be in the 70s to low 80s before the arrival of the next front. This appears to be later in the week next week as the NBM is signaling a slight cooldown...not much else to say in the way of details with the next FROPA occurring late in the forecast period. Bailey && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 521 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 VFR conditions expected through much of the TAF period. MVFR to possibly IFR cigs could occur over GLS/LBX if sea fog develops overnight into Sat morning. Winds will continue to gradually relax this evening and will range between 04-08KTS overnight. A dry cold front will pass through SE Texas Sat morning and winds will become NNW to N and range between 08-14KTS with gusts of around 20KTS for the rest of the day. Winds will become N-NNE at 04-08KTS Sat night. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1231 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 Moderate southwesterly winds continuing this afternoon. A front will move in during the morning hours Saturday. West to northwest winds will grow in the front's wake. Small craft will need to exercise caution both before the front passes and into Saturday morning afterwards. Winds in the offshore waters are expected to reach Advisory levels, thus a Small Craft Advisory will be in effect through Saturday morning. Increasing humidity levels may allow for the development of patchy fog Friday night. Localized dense fog across the Galveston Bay resulted in visibilities less than 1 nm for a couple of hours this morning. Conditions appear somewhat more favorable Friday night into Saturday morning, so will need to monitor for another round of dense fog. Stronger winds from a less favorable southwesterly fetch should disrupt the development of dense fog, but some patchy dense fog can't be entirely ruled out. Meanwhile, low water levels 1.0 to 1.5 feet below mean lower low water are expected on portions of Galveston Bay during low tide cycles through the weekend. Looking farther out, there will be another potential window for some patchy sea fog in the first half of next week. This potential though does have very high uncertainty associated with it. The wind looks like it will be from a more favorable fetch, which would boost the chances. However, there is a question about whether warming waters will match the increasing dewpoints, mitigating the threat. This will be a period to monitor in the coming days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 54 72 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 59 76 50 70 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 63 73 55 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for GMZ330-335-350-355. Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ335. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for GMZ370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bailey AVIATION...Cotto MARINE...Bailey