FXUS64 KHGX 121957 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 257 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is in effect through early Monday morning for portions of the Brazos Valley where slow-moving, training thunderstorms are expected to develop. A few instances of flash flooding will be possible. - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong winds, hail, and localized downpours will be possible through this evening. - Increasingly summer-like weather by the second half the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have moved into SE Texas as a weak upper level disturbance moves overhead. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible through this evening. Damaging wind gusts and hail remain to be the primary concerns with regards to severe thunderstorms, but a brief, isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The primary impact from the thunderstorms today will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall leading to a few instances of flash flooding as the storms will be slow-moving and potentially train over the same areas. Rainfall rates of 3-4" per hour have already been reported in areas to our west, and these rainfall rates will remain possible as the storms enter into SE Texas. 1-hr and 3-hr FFG across the area is generally 2-4", so the chance for flash flooding will be there for any slow-moving downpours. A Flood Watch has been issued this afternoon through early Monday morning for Burleson, Brazos, Madison, Grimes, Washington, Austin, and Colorado counties. Generally expecting up to 1-3" of rain for most areas along and north of I-10, but locally higher amounts of 3-6"+ will be possible within the Watch area. Locally higher amounts will still be possible outside the Watch area, but the chances are greater within the Watch. Coverage of the showers and thunderstorms will begin to wane late this evening, but isolated showers and thunderstorms will linger into the overnight hours before this event ends. Overall the remainder of the week looks to be mostly rainfree, but weak shortwaves embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft will lead to continued slight rain chances through midweek for our northern zones. The best dynamics for thunderstorms will be northwest of our region, but may see some storms skirt the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region. Otherwise, moist onshore flow and daytime heating could lead to isolated afternoon streamer showers by the end of the week. Speaking of daytime heating, we will be on the warming trend through the week thanks to that southwesterly flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface. High temperatures will rise into the low 80s on Monday, mid-80s on Tuesday, then upper 80s by Thursday (with some isolated areas potentially hitting the 90 degree mark). Fowler && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 CIGs are anticipated to remain around MVFR levels early this morning as light showers develop over the region. Maintaining a wide timing window for thunderstorms today given the differences between wx models and uncertainty present. Still, the bulk of guidance suggests better thunderstorm chances/coverage north of the Houston Metro area today while areas further south have more sparse coverage for showers/storms. Could see some areas scatter out to VFR FLs for some time during the afternoon, though this too is contingent of shower/storm coverage, thus VFR appears more feasible at KIAH and southward. Rain chances decrease tonight with CIGs lowering once again to MVFR-IFR levels overnight. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026 Small craft should continue to exercise caution through Monday morning as moderate southeasterly winds continue (around 15kt with gusts to 20kt) and seas around 4-6ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through this evening, but the majority of this activity will remain inland. Light to moderate onshore flow will prevail through the remainder of the week with 3-5ft seas and low rain chances. This persistent onshore flow will lead to elevated tides (high tides around 2.5-3.0ft above MLLW) and moderate to strong rip currents through most of this week. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 69 83 68 85 / 60 20 0 0 Houston (IAH) 71 83 70 85 / 30 20 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 72 78 72 79 / 20 10 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch through Monday morning for TXZ176-195>198-210-211. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Monday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fowler AVIATION...03 MARINE...Fowler