FXUS64 KHGX 160501 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1201 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong northerly winds expected tonight into Monday. A Wind Advisory is in effect for all of Southeast TX. - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected on Monday as very dry air overlaps with gusty northerly winds. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of Southeast TX on Monday. - Hazardous marine conditions occuring tonight through Monday: strong northerly winds (gusting to 40+ kt), elevated seas (10-15 ft), and potential for negative tides. A Gale Warning is in effect through Monday afternoon. - Light freeze expected in portions of the Piney Woods/Brazos Valley Monday night, followed by a warming trend through the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 The cold front is currently about to exit the offshore Gulf waters and strong northerly winds are starting to ramp up over Southeast TX. We are observing winds at 20-25 with gusts of 30-40 mph inland. These speeds are expected to prevail into the morning hours as a 50-60 knot low level jet moves overhead behind the frontal passage tonight. The Wind Advisory will continue in effect through 6 PM Monday. Make sure loose and light outdoor objects have been secured. Strong winds could also lead to power outages at times. Cold, dry air will also move in quickly behind the front tonight, with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s by sunrise. Taking into account the strong northerly winds, temperatures will feel closer to the upper 20s to mid 30s. Thus, make sure to bundle up during the early morning hours. Colder conditions prevail Monday, with sunny skies and highs in the 50s areawide. Very nice :P. The one thing we will have to monitor closely on Monday is the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions given how dry and windy we will be (more details on the Fire Weather Discussion below). Winds begin to relax by late afternoon to evening. CAA will continue on Monday night and will give us the coldest temperatures for this week. The lows will be in the lower 30s (near freezing) over the Piney Woods, the mid 30s to lower 40s for the rest of the inland portions, and the mid to upper 40s along the coasts. Fair weather will prevail for the rest of the work week. Southerly flow will return Tuesday and continue into the rest of the work week, resulting in another warming trend with highs will be back in the 80s by Thursday and the upper 80s to lower 90s this weekend. Cotto && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 A broken line of thunderstorms is quickly moving through the area this evening along a cold front. Strong northerly winds should develop in the wake of the front with gusts approaching 40-50 knots. Even if the strongest gusts aren't mixing down, vertical wind shear will be present to a degree with northerly winds of 40-45 knots around 2,000 ft. Winds should ease down slightly overnight, generally 18-23 knots prevailing with gusts up to around 30-35. Winds at KGLS will take more time to taper down. Overall strong northerly winds and VFR conditions should prevail into Monday and through the remainder of the TAF period. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 As of midnight tonight, the cold front was exiting the offshore Gulf waters. Strong northerly winds of 30-35 knots and gusts of 40-50 knots are expected in the wake of the front. Seas will build to 8-15 feet. A Gale Warning is now in effect through Monday afternoon. Low water levels can be expected in the bays Monday morning. Winds will begin to relax Monday evening and seas will gradually subside Monday night into Tuesday. Light onshore winds return Tuesday night and continue Thursday. Winds may veer south- southwesterly Friday into the upcoming weekend. Cotto && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Very dry air will filter across Southeast TX in the wake of Sunday's front. Expect elevated to critical fire weather conditions as afternoon RH values lower into the upper teens to lower 20s on Monday and northerly winds are around 20-25 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. A Fire Weather Watch will be in effect for most of Southeast TX on Monday. Dry conditions prevail on Tuesday, but winds will veer southeasterly and be much lighter. RH values will begin to increase mid week into the end of the work week as south-southeasterly winds prevail and low level moisture recovers. Cotto && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 40 54 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 44 56 38 63 / 30 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 49 58 47 61 / 40 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT Monday for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338. GM...Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370- 375. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cotto AVIATION...03 MARINE...Cotto FIRE WEATHER...Cotto