FXUS64 KHGX 190628
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
128 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warmer conditions will persist through the week and into
  the weekend.

- Patchy fog possible during the nighttime and early morning
  hours.

- A significant warming trend Friday into the weekend with some
  locations potentially seeing their first 90-degree days of the 
  year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Forecast remains largely quiet throughout the next several days as 
surface high pressure remains in the vicinity with ridging aloft. 
The upper level ridge remains positioned over the desert southwest 
with midlevel heights topping off around 595-596 dam. Midlevel 
heights are forecasted to remain above the 99th percentile in both 
the GEFS M-Climate and NAEFS Climate percentiles. Heights over SE 
Texas won't be as potent, but should still be above the 90th 
climatological percentile through the remainder of the forecast 
period. On Friday, 850mb temperatures should climb to around 14-20C, 
reaching the 90th to 99th percentile through the weekend based on 
NAEFS. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) is still showing values of 
0.70-0.95 for max temperature friday through the weekend, with shift 
of tales values approaching 1-2 over portions of eastern Texas 
during this period. Again, this is all occuring in the context of 
west-southeasterly flow with low PWs generally below 0.75 inches. 
Bottom line, the signal for heat remains present with afternoon
high temperatures still around 8 to 20 degrees above normal. 

The aforementioned ridge should flatten early next week as some 
disturbances & impulses track north of the area. A weak cold front 
is anticipated to push towards SE Texas as Monday. Could stall out 
around or just north of our CWA, but in either such case I woudn't 
expect rain with this system. Quiet weather should continue, though 
we should see max temperatures decrease next week.

Overall warm conditions and slim rain chances are expected through 
the forecast period. Lows this morning should be in the upper 
40s/lower 60s with temperatures reaching the 70s/80s this afternoon. 
Rising moisture should also usher in some patchy fog during the 
nighttime and early morning hours each day. Friday through Sunday is 
still expected to be the hottest period in the forecast with highs 
reaching the upper 70s/lower 90s and morning lows in the upper 
50s/60s. High temperatures ease off slightly next week, but remain 
in the 70s/80s during the afternoon hours. 

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

We may see some shallow, patchy fog try to develop west of the 
I-45 corridor in the 9-13z timeframe. Otherwise, continued VFR for
the remainder of the period. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Light to moderate south-southwest winds and low seas are expected 
over the next several days. Rain chances remain slim throughout this 
period as high pressure looms in the vicinity. Patchy inland fog 
could spillover into portions in the upper bays and channels nightly 
through Friday. Will have to monitor for patchy sea fog this 
weekend.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  84  56  89  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Houston (IAH)			  83  59  86  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)			  74  65  78  66 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...47
MARINE...03