FXUS64 KHGX 112320 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 620 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Few scattered to isolated showers/storms this afternoon. - Warm and seasonable weather expected throughout the work week. - Isolated rain chances return over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Water vapor imagery shows a passing shortwave trough moving into SE Texas aloft this afternoon. Modest moisture lingers behind this morning's cold front with PWs around 1.3-1.5 inches. Clearing skies and afternoon heating should provide some destabilization over the next few hours. CAMs have been suggesting some isolated to scattered showers this afternoon, which are already beginning to show on radar. Could see a few thunderstorms too, though these will mostly likely be weaker & more pulse-like in nature as well. Areas generally east of the I-45 corridor can anticipate overall better rain chances through the afternoon, tapering off tonight as high pressure builds over the area. Rest of the forecast remains largely the same. On Tuesday, a mid to upper level ridge will build over the W CONUS/Four Corners region, ushering in a period of benign weather throughout much of the work week. This ridge aloft should shift easterly with time, along with surface high pressure, allowing light onshore winds to return around Tuesday night, though largely sea-landbreeze driven initially. This will allow moisture to rebuild as temperatures rise through mid week. Highs should be in the upper 70s/80s with isolated 90s possible, while lows reach the 60s/70s. Around Thursday, the ridge aloft will weaken slightly as a series of disturbances push in from the west. The ridge axis will shift east of the area by Friday, weakening it's influence over the area. Long range guidance shows some disturbances/impulses streaming over SE Texas Friday & Saturday with the aforementioned ridge amplifying over the SE CONUS Sunday into next week. Could see some showers during this period, though warm weather and isolated rain chances are still anticipated. 03 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period with one potential exception. Some model guidance is hinting at a brief window for reduced visibilities at the northern three terminals between 11Z-14Z. Drier air will be moving in, but model soundings and low dewpoint depressions are supportive of a brief patchy fog window early Tuesday morning. Confidence is leaning more towards the low to moderate side, so covered this with a short TEMPO for CLL/UTS/CXO. Outside of that, mainly a wind forecast. Breezy northerly to northeasterly winds late this afternoon will become light and variable overnight, then pick up again out of the northeast again on Tuesday generally in the 5-8 kt range. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Isolated to scattered showers remain possible through the afternoon. Breezy north to northeast winds should decrease this afternoon into Tuesday as high pressure slowly builds into the area. Should see mostly sea-landbreeze driven winds Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Afterwards, the pressure gradient will tighten, resulting in elevated onshore winds late Friday. Moderate onshore winds and rising rain chances are anticipated this weekend. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 63 81 64 85 / 20 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 66 84 68 88 / 20 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 71 81 72 83 / 20 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...03