FXUS64 KHGX 041821 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 121 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer, more clouds, and breezier, on Tuesday...but still mostly rain-free. - Weak cold front begins approaching the region Wednesday afternoon and should initiate some scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few could be strong =severe north of I-10. - Though not a total washout, there will be additional opportunities through the weekend as a series of upper disturbances pass overhead. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 121 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 With the return of southerly winds, Gulf moisture is flowing back into the region and bringing higher dewpoints, RH's, and cloud cover. Instead of the 50s like we've seen the past few nights, overnight lows will be trending upward into the 68-75F range tonight and Tuesday night. And with warmer starts to the day, expect daytime highs to be a bit higher too. Weak front will begin approaching northern parts of SE TX Wednesday afternoon. Anticipate that we'll see some scattered convection develop ahead of the boundary as we get into peak heating. Am still weary of the capping situation that might have to be overcome first for any significant convection, but the more favorable locations for that to happen will generally be north of the I-10 corridor (and more specifically our NE counties near Lake Livingston) as we head into the peak heating hours. Let's keep an eye out for an isolated strong to severe cell or two there. There's less fcst instability further south and closer to the coast, especially after the loss of heating, but not to the point of ignoring considering the time of year. The front will slowly sag southward overnight and eventually off the coast Thursday morning. Looking for a continued messy sw flow aloft, and we'd anticipate some scattered shower and isolated tstm chances to continue both ahead of, and behind, the front into Thursday. The front lifts back north in the Gulf on Friday, eventually leaving a weak pseudo coastal trof in the area heading into Saturday. During this same time period, the mid-upper low situated over ncnl Mexico will be weakening/filling and eventually push eastward across the state and bring some additional chances of precipitation. Overall, the 12z guidance doesn't look as bullish in terms of weekend POPs as yesterday, but would still anticipate some scattered activity with this general pattern. 47 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through today with SCT to BKN mid and high level clouds passing through. Breezy south-southeasterly winds are expected to develop this afternoon at around 9-12kt with gusts to around 20kt. The gusts will end by this evening, but southerly winds around 7-10kt will continue through tonight. MVFR conditions with CIGs around 2000ft will begin to develop across the area between 8-10z and persist into Tuesday morning. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 121 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 South to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots will prevail through midweek. Went ahead and hoisted the caution flags this evening and overnight. They'll probably need to the extended into the day Tuesday too. The next cold front, and isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms, is forecast to push off the coast Thursday morning. This front does not appear to be as strong in terms of wind speeds compared to the last two. North and northeast winds behind the front swing back around to the east and southeast on Friday and continue into the weekend. Additional rain chances are expected this weekend in association with a slow moving upper level disturbance moving into the region from the west. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 69 87 73 86 / 0 0 10 40 Houston (IAH) 70 86 75 88 / 10 10 10 50 Galveston (GLS) 73 81 76 84 / 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 6 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...47