FXUS64 KHGX 061721 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1221 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerously hot conditions will continue through the forecast period. Daily widespread heat indices of 105-107F with locally higher values over 108F are likely. - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. - High pressure and drier air building in the area by midweek, reducing precipitation chances. Rain/storm chances return late in the week and into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026 A mid-level low pressure system over the southern plains is influencing our region, supporting another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Conditions are conducive for convection, with PWAT values near 1.8- 2.1 inches, ample instability, and little to no capping. However, some mid level dry air may be an inhibiting factor, similar to what occurred over the weekend. While there is a low probability of MCS development overnight in our northern areas, small scattered storms during the late afternoon are the more likely scenario. In the early morning from 6am-8am patchy fog along the west side of I-45 can be expected. Slightly drier air will move into the area Tuesday into Wednesday gradually decreasing precipitation chances. Some scattered showers are still expected Tuesday, with highest chances centered around the Piney Woods region. Precipitation chances will continue to decrease into late Wednesday and Thursday as a plume of Saharan dust will be arriving, bringing even drier air, possible haze, and reduced air quality. Temperatures throughout the week will remain in the mid to high 90s with heat indices approaching advisory level by the end of the week. However, friday into the weekend will also see more widespread showers/storms than what have been seen over the last week. Whether or not heat advisory criteria will be met will depend on the timing and location of these showers and thunderstorms. Wingo && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026 Similar to the last few mornings, we are starting to see some MVFR cigs/vis develop. This shouldn't last too long with VFR prevailing by 13-14Z. Southerly winds will increase to around 8-10 knots this afternoon then become light and variable during the evening hours. GLS looks to remain around 10 knots through the night. There is a low chance for showers and storms across the region this afternoon. Confidence is low in impacts at any particular terminal at this time so have left any mention out of the TAFs. Other then the risk of mist/fog conditions will remain VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026 Light onshore winds (around 10 kt) and low seas (1-3 ft) will prevail through at least midweek. Towards the end of the work week, winds slightly increase and come close to the caution flag threshold at times during the nighttime hours. These increased winds will also increase offshore seas to around 3-4 ft and could lead to an increasing risk of rip currents going into the weekend. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the waters during the morning to early afternoon hours before rain activity shifts inland along the sea breeze. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 78 95 78 96 / 0 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 80 96 80 97 / 10 20 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 83 90 83 90 / 0 20 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wingo AVIATION...Castillo MARINE...Batiste