FXUS64 KHGX 081820 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 120 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Wet weather will continue into Mother's Day weekend with a risk of flash flooding and some strong to severe storms. - Lull in rainfall on Saturday night/early Sunday with a cold front pushing off the coast that night into early Monday. - High pressure and calmer weather throughout much of the upcoming work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 113 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026 Current satellite imagery still shows a shortwave trough over Northern Mexico approaching the western edge of Texas with derived PWs around 1.4-2.0 inches. Already had our first round of showers/storms pass through SE Texas earlier today with some light showers still persisting over the area at the time of writing. Even though CAMs performance hasn't been ideal per previous shifts, the slew of short-range guidance suggests the potential for some additional rounds of storms this afternoon and overnight as weak impulses continue to funnel over the area aloft. Broadly this environment is progged to contain ~40 knots of 6km shear with bulk shear upwards of 50 knots. 3km SRH reaches 150-250m2/s2, decent though still on the low end with storms more elevated in nature until the warm front is able to lift back up through the area. Instability is rather low, with SFC CAPE around 500-100 J/KG and midlevel lapse rates peaking at 6.8-7.4 DegC/km. Drier air in the midlevel, but still very saturated in the lower levels with a deep warm cloud layer of around 13,700 ft. CAPE profiles in forecast soundings are also very slim, and overall seem better coded to heavier rains. Model guidance shows several higher-end bullseyes for rainfall, with some loose clustering closer to the coastline and east TX/W LA. One aspect that makes the forecast tricker is a line of convection coming from the north overnight into Saturday in conjunction with another shortwave to the west. Timing differences may lead to a slew of different outcomes for how such features will interact, though broadly this window looks a little more promising for SVR wx with deeper instability aloft. Overall, portions of SE Texas are outlooked for a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) of Severe Weather today & Saturday, along with Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall today. All severe hazards are still on the table with these storms, mainly winds and hail. Heavy rainfall also remains a concern as well. Many areas could see less than an inch of rainfall due to light showers/low coverage. Some spots with stronger storms could see totals near 1-3 inches, with isolated higher totals upwards of around 4-5 inches possible. Should see a lull in rains some time around Saturday night into portions of Sunday as the shortwave aloft pushes off to the east. Onshore flow should be back in place, though only briefly. A deeper upper level low over Ontario/Quebec is progged to push a cold front through SE Texas Sunday night through early Monday. Anticipate another round of showers/thunderstorms along the front as it makes it's way off the coast. Monday should see breezy, cooler and drier weather as high pressure fills over the area in the wake of the cold front. A mid to upper level ridge will also build across the Four Corners region, ushering in a period of benign weather through the next several days. This ridge aloft should shift easterly, along with surface high pressure, allowing onshore winds to return around Tuesday night. This will allow moisture to rebuild as temperatures rise through mid week. Highs should be in the upper 70s/80s with lows in the 60s/70s. 03 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026 A mid-level disturbance will move eastward across Texas today into Saturday. This will lead to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout the next 48 hours or so. The coverage and exact location for these storms are not fully certain based on the latest Hi-Res model guidance, but there is a good indication that we could see scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Some storms could produce strong winds and hail. There will be a mix of MVFR to VFR cigs throughout the day and IFR to MVFR later tonight into early Sat. Areas of patchy fog may also develop overnight, reducing visibilities. Winds will be light from the E this morning and veer SE in the afternoon. Light VRB winds can be expected tonight. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 113 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026 Onshore winds return this afternoon as a warm front lifts north into SE Texas. Could see a few hours of elevated winds across Galveston bay, but otherwise light to moderate winds will continue through Saturday. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible now through the weekend. Storms could produce higher winds, seas and lower visibility from heavier rainfall. Anticipate a lull in rainfall, around Saturday night into Sunday. A cold front should push off the coast around Sunday night or early Monday morning, bringing another round of showers and storms. Moderate northeast winds are expected after the front, decreasing and shifting southeasterly Tuesday night. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 69 83 68 86 / 40 30 10 10 Houston (IAH) 72 84 72 88 / 40 50 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 75 82 76 84 / 30 40 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Cotto MARINE...03