FXUS64 KHGX 150600 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Another day with warm and conditions and an isolated shower or two before cooler weather arrives. - Cold front pushes through the region on late tonight and Friday morning, bringing gusty north winds and much cooler conditions through weekend. - Hazardous marine conditions expected in the wake of the front. A Gale Watch is in effect. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 One more day of above normal temperatures and low chances of an isolated shower til things cool down as the much awaited cold front passes through. Later this evening and overnight, coastal troffiness across the western Gulf will probably increase in coverage near the coast and offshore. Further inland, after midnight, we'll likely see a thin area of scattered shower & isolated tstm activity develop along the low level convergent zone with the incoming front. Rain totals should be negligible for the most part. This front is fairly strong for this time of year, supported by a southward push of a 1040mb high tracking through the cntl CONUS. Guidance continues to trend faster and colder...and as such I've made the associated adjustments to the forecast Fri-Sun. Wind Advisories will likely be required at some point as breezy-windy conditions are expected in the wake of the front. A gradual warming/modifying trend begins early next week as the ridging tracks off to the east...but just to more seasonable levels and not to the warm conditions we're currently experiencing. 47 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions expected this TAF cycle. Winds will be calm and VRB overnight before turning to the SE by mid to late morning, and then be VRB once again by the evening. There is a chance of MVFR cigs/vis at CLL during the early morning hours. A 6SM BR with low BKN cigs was included to hint at that potential. Toward the end of this TAF cycle, rain chances along the coast increase ahead of a southward moving cold front. Therefore, VCSH was included for GLS, which will likely be changed to a PROB30 or TEMPO for the next cycle along with the inclusion of parts of the Brazos Valley. JMG && .MARINE... Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Moderate onshore winds and 3 to 5 foot seas will prevail through tonight. Rain chances will increase, moreso in the Gulf waters, later tonight in advance of a cold front forecast to push into the waters early Friday morning. Look for a wind shift to the north in the early morning hours, followed by an increase of 20-30 knot north winds during the day, and further increasing to close to gale conditions and much higher seas by Friday evening. A Gale Watch is in effect beginning at 1pm Friday. Details in regards to the specific timing and wind strength is somewhat uncertain, but mariners should note that trends have have been for a faster, stronger front. This Watch and possible warnings may need to be adjusted back to Friday morning, especially Freeport westward, should these trends continue. Winds and seas should begin to slowly subside late Saturday into Sunday, but still remain somewhat elevated. 47 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 North winds 15-30 mph with higher gusts are probable Friday into Saturday in the wake of the passing cold front. Though breezy to windy conditions are likely, RH values appear to be above Red Flag Warning criteria. That said, caution is strongly advised with outdoor burning. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 91 63 69 50 / 0 40 10 0 Houston (IAH) 91 69 76 53 / 20 20 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 88 74 80 61 / 30 60 50 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...JMG MARINE...47