FXUS64 KHGX 271135 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 635 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Band of showers and storms will continue to move across the region in the next several hours and off to the east by late this morning. Some storms could be locally strong and also produce heavy downpours and strong wind gusts. - Mariners should check the latest weather conditions and forecast before beginning or continuing their transits. Hazardous conditions are expected late tonight into Wednesday morning. - Less active weather is anticipated for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026 An active weather morning is underway as we monitor a slow-moving line of strong to severe thunderstorms currently just along and east of the I-35 corridor. This initial complex is expected to push through over the next several hours. In addition, attention is turning to a second MCS initiating over north-central Mexico. Hi-res model guidance remains divided on this second feature; a few solutions bring the MCS across Southeast Texas, just behind the main line, while other guidance breaks the disturbance down before it arrives. Overall, the window for these convective complexes will persist through the mid/late morning hours. Forecast soundings indicate a slight decrease in instability and bulk shear as the primary line advances through Southeast TX. While the risk of widespread severe thunderstorms is low, a few severe wind gusts and brief spin-ups remain possible, particularly along any bowing segments. In addition to the convective wind threat, moderate to heavy rain is expected. As the line progresses eastward, it will tap into an environment characterized by increasing theta e and upper lvl diffluence. Therefore, the potential for cell training remains a possibility. Given well saturated grounds from recent rainfall, any additional precip will quickly translate into efficient runoff. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected, though localized pockets of up to 5 inches will be possible. Please, see the Hydrology section below for more details on rivers. PoPs will diminish by late morning, though remnant surface boundaries will likely serve as the primary focus for isolated, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. Following the departure of today's system, the region looks to get a break from active MCS patterns. A subtle mid to upper lvl ridge will begin building over the area through the weekend. While this ridge won't be strong enough to completely suppress convection, any development should remain isolated to scattered and largely driven by daytime heating and any sfc boundaries (e.g. sea breezes). Expect near seasonal high temperatures to close out the workweek and persist into early next week, with afternoon readings in the upper 80s to low 90s. JM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026 MVFR CIGs ongoing at CLL this morning and CXO experiencing LIFR CIGs. All other sites at VFR. Periods of MVFR CIGs will continue through the morning hours. Additionally, periods of showers are expected to continue through the morning through early afternoon hours. Dry conditions will continue during the rest of the afternoon through the end of the period. Winds will be out of the SE and light. Bailey && .MARINE... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026 A complex of thunderstorms, currently located to our west, will move across the bays and Gulf waters in the next few hours. The estimated time of arrival of storms should be for the Matagorda Bay area between 1-3am, Galveston Bay 3am-6am, and the Gulf waters 3am-11am. The primary risk from these storms will be abrupt wind shifts and gusts to 30-50kt, heavy rain, and lightning. Take this into consideration before beginning or continuing your transits. Any showers and storms that develop in the afternoon should remain more isolated to scattered in nature. Beyond Thursday, light onshore winds and low seas will prevail, with a daily risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms. JM/47 && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Most streamflows in southeast Texas are at, above, or much above normal thanks to recent rainfall, which means any rainfall will likely become straight runoff. That being said, the current forecast (1-2 inches) does not lead us to believe there will be widespread river flooding with this next system, we will need to monitor rises on area rivers, bayous and creeks especially where the heaviest rain (3-5 inches) falls. The latest run with probabilistic QPF shows rises to action stage across most of the river basins in southeast Texas over the next 72 hours; however, a few spots along flashier tributaries show minor flooding is possible. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/). KLG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 81 70 85 72 / 40 20 20 10 Houston (IAH) 82 71 87 74 / 70 30 30 10 Galveston (GLS) 84 76 85 78 / 80 40 30 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Bailey MARINE...JM