FXUS64 KHGX 132118 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 418 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - The heat and humidity will continue through the weekend with peak afternoon temperatures rising into the low to mid 90s (31-36 Celsius) with peak heat indices near 103-107 (39-42 Celsius). - Moderate to high risk of rip currents this weekend, likely continuing into portions of next week with elevated high tides. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms we be possible daily beginning Sunday afternoon through at least midweek. Locally heavy rainfall leading to urban and small stream flooding will be possible with any isolated strong storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Heat and humidity will continue to be a concern through tomorrow as afternoon temperatures rise into the low to mid-90s (31-36 Celsius) across much of the region. Moist onshore flow will bring afternoon dew points into the mid-70s for much of the region, and then upper 70s along the coast. This will allow for heat indices to rise into the 103-107 degree range (39-42 Celsius) during peak heating hours today and Sunday (Noon-4pm). There will be some uncertainty on these temperatures for Sunday as increasing rain chances may lead to a reprieve from the heat. Speaking of the increasing rain chances, we are anticipating isolated coastal showers and storms to develop during the morning hours on Sunday - then spreading inland through the afternoon. The activity tomorrow will largely be dominated by daytime heating and increasing moisture (PWATs rising to 2.0-2.3"), with exact locations of where the storms develop dependent on boundary interactions. A lull in the activity is expected to begin near sunset then continue into Sunday night. However, a weak front is expected to begin pushing in from the north late Sunday night/early Monday morning bringing our next round of showers and thunderstorms. This boundary is expected to slowly push into our region during the day on Monday, then eventually stalling across SE Texas through much of this upcoming week leading to daily rain chances. PWATs remain near 2.1-2.4" through the week, so there will be continued chances of locally heavy rainfall with any of the thunderstorms that develop. Coverage of the showers and thunderstorms appear greatest Monday and Tuesday as weak disturbances aloft pass through the region. Any thunderstorm the forms will have the potential to produce localized downpours leading to rain totals of 1-2" with locally higher amounts of 3-5" daily. If these storms develop over an area with poor drainage, or training storms develop, then minor urban and small stream flooding will be possible. WPC has placed portions of our region in an Excessive Rainfall Outlook through the next several days: - Sunday: Most of SE Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) with the Piney Woods in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) - Monday: Most of SE Texas in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) - Tuesday: Most of SE Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) A large upper-level low moving into NE Mexico on Wednesday will push the stalled boundary northwards out of the area - but high PWATs and daytime heating will still lead isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The upper-level low will begin to skirt up the Texas Coast late Wednesday into the end of the work week leading to continued rain chances. The benefit of increased shower and thunderstorm activity Monday and Tuesday will be a reduction in the heat and humidity with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s for most locations with heat indices peaking in the mid to upper 90s. However, temperatures begin to rise again Wednesday through the rest of the week as precipitation chances lower. Heading to the beach this weekend? Remember to use safe beach practices like swimming near a life guard. A moderate to high risk of strong rip currents will continue through much of this week. Fowler && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 A few terminals are currently experiencing some patchy fog but that will generally be isolated and brief. Otherwise ceilings will generally be a mixture of VFR to MVFR, with general improvement during the day and then lowering ceilings again tonight. Winds will be around 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, especially for terminals closer to the coast. Showers and storms will generally be isolated so left out mentions of PROB30s/TEMPOs but if a terminal is impacted it may see visibility and ceiling reductions as well as variable gusty winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Light to moderate onshore flow will persist through at least Tuesday with seas generally between of 3-6ft. Small craft should exercise caution this evening into Monday morning as gusts to 25kt will be possible with seas near 6 to 7ft between 40-60nm offshore. Winds will lower by the mid-morning hours on Monday with light onshore flow prevailing through midweek. A passing disturbance along the Texas Coast will bring a return to moderate to strong onshore winds Wednesday night through Thursday. This continued onshore flow will lead to a moderate to high rip current risk through much of this week. Slightly elevated high tides (around 3.1-3.4ft above MLLW) will also continue. There will be daily chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday through much of this week. Coverage will be highest Monday into Tuesday as a weak front approaches, then stalls over SE Texas. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible with any thunderstorm that develops. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 92 76 85 / 0 70 80 90 Houston (IAH) 79 92 78 89 / 10 70 60 80 Galveston (GLS) 83 89 83 88 / 20 40 40 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for TXZ436>439. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fowler AVIATION...BL MARINE...Fowler