FXUS64 KHGX 281125 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 525 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Onshore winds return today, along with warmer and more humid air to prepare the area for our next shot of rain and storms associated with our next front coming over the weekend. There is a marginal risk for a severe storm and/or heavy downpours - roughly a 5-15 percent chance. - An even chillier airmass comes in following the weekend front, opening December on a cold note. For those north of the Houston metro, we may see the return of nights with temperatures reaching lows around or just below freezing. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1057 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Onshore flow returns for tomorrow, and with moderate to strong flow we should see moisture rebound and PWAT values increase to the 1.25-1.5" ahead of the next front this weekend. Rain chances begin to increase Friday night as the initial shortwave trough moves through. Coverage becomes more widespread Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Dynamics wise...the upper-level trough does not dig too deep into the State from the Plains region, and in fact, begins to lift NE with the approach of the cold front. Herein lies the Marginal Risk designation for our area for Saturday...with the departure of the parent trough, we lose forcing and have weak ascent; however, with warm front lifting northward and stalling over SW Louisiana and with the timing of arrival of the cold front lining up with the peak heating...we may see enough destabilization to support a few stronger storms. The main hazards with these storms would be damaging winds and potential for large hail. With the moisture pooling into the area during the day Friday, some of these storms may produce heavy downpours and localized flooding. Following the FROPA, we will start to see temperatures drop beginning Sunday as NW winds bring in a dry chilly airmass through mid-week. Sunday's temperatures will be in the upper 40s across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods and in the 50s to low 60s elsewhere. With the front appearing to stall over the coastal waters on Sunday, could see lingering rain chances into Monday. A reinforcing front will clear out the rain chances as a drier airmass settles in. NBM has been running a bit warm, so mixed in NBM25 to bring temperatures down a little bit Monday and Tuesday as cold air continues to funnel in...in addition LREF probabilities show most of the area in a low to medium chance of getting above 55F Monday and Tuesday (NBM scenario was running a few degrees warmer). NAEFS/ECMWF percentiles also dip into the 10% range for surface temperatures for these days, so felt a little more confident straying from pure NBM and incorporating a bit of a cooler option. Nighttime temperatures will be on the chilly side as well with a good chunk of the area falling to around or below freezing Monday night and Tuesday night. Areas north of the Houston Metro are the most likely to see temperatures that cold as well as rural areas west of the metro. As stated by the previous forecaster, the entire area has a nonzero chance of lows dipping to around or below freezing Monday night and Tuesday night. Continue to monitor the forecast and have a plan to protect those vulnerable to the colder weather, pets, pipes, and plants. Bailey && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 524 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 VFR conditions anticipated today, though we'll see some increasing mid-upper level cloudiness and some gusty ESE-SE winds in the 15-25kt range. Winds will probably lose their gustiness this evening. Cloud decks will gradually lower to 3000-4000ft overnight as low level Gulf moisture fills in. In addition, we'll have some upper level disturbances passing west-east thru the region between about 23-12z. While we will probably see some returns on radar, suspect a good bit of it will be in the form of virga (rain evaporating before reaching the ground). Wouldn't be too surprised to see a few sprinkles survive to the surface as we head through the night...but with little to no impact it's probably not worth mentioning at most terminal TAFs at this time, but will monitor trends. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1057 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 A small craft advisory begins on the Gulf this morning and expands to include the bays Friday afternoon, and continues through Saturday in advance of an incoming cold front. Periods of unsettled weather also return to the forecast late Friday night, peaking Saturday night just before the front pushes off the coast. Gusty north winds are anticipated in the wake of the front, and another small craft advisory will likely be needed for that period as well. Bailey/Luchs && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 65 57 73 41 / 20 40 80 70 Houston (IAH) 67 58 75 48 / 10 20 60 90 Galveston (GLS) 70 64 76 57 / 0 20 50 90 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bailey AVIATION...47 MARINE...Bailey