FXUS64 KHGX 071107 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 607 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot conditions will continue through the forecast period. Daytime highs will be in the 90s with heat indices in the triple digits. - Isolated-scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. Stronger cells will be capable of producing some 25-45 mph wind gusts. - A deeper surge of Gulf moisture should arrive late in the week and weekend. Warm, muggy conditions persist with daily chances of rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Mid level trof/weakness stretching from the OH/TN/MS Valleys into the eastern half of TX will linger for the next few days. Broadly speaking for today, 1.8-2.1" PW air looks to be situated across a decent part of the region (lower in the Brazos Valley). We should see some iso-sct shra/tstm activity get started off the coast toward morning and eventually transition inland in the late morning and early afternoon in association with the seabreeze and daytime heating. Let's keep an eye on the area up toward the Piney Woods late in the day (and areas east of I-45 and north of I-10). This will be where the highest PW air should be situated locally...and things could become fairly unstable at peak heating late in the afternoon/evening. Some of the hires data suggests convection popping in the 4-7pm timeframe and sagging southward into the early-mid evening. Fcst soundings show somewhat of an inverted-v profile...suggesting the potential for some localized strong wind gusts in the more intense localized cells. Considerable uncertainty exists, but it's worth the mention. Will add some POPs thru late evening as far south as the metro area for any late outflow/seabreeze interactions. Pattern doesn't look all that much different Wed & Thurs. Troffiness/weakness isn't as well defined, but heights don't really change that much as we'll still be situated between stronger ridging to our east and to our west. Maybe a touch less moisture to work with, but still enough for the mention of some lower end diurnally/seabreeze driven activity. Otherwise, temperatures will be running a few degrees above seasonal norms with peak heat index values 102-108F for most of us. Heading into late week, weekend, and early next week - the ridge to our west strengthens as it tracks across the Rockies and into ncntl Plains. The ridging currently to our east makes its way wwd across the northern Gulf Coast so we'll see some height rises as well. A surge of deeper Gulf moisture (2.1-2.4") is forecast to push into the area this weekend. In terms of precip, we will be looking for who wins in terms of increased subsidence versus plentiful moisture. Hoping the rain chances win out, otherwise higher heat indices will be in the works. 47 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Similar to the last few mornings, we are starting to see some MVFR cigs/vis develop. This shouldn't last too long with VFR prevailing by 13-14Z. Southerly winds will increase to around 8-10 knots this afternoon then become light and variable during the evening hours. Have introduced a PROB30 for TSRA across all sites by mid day through early this evening as isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. Activity should wane by 00Z. Patchy fog will be likely once again Wednesday morning as winds become light. && .MARINE... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 A prevailing southerly flow is anticipated this week. Seas are running 1-3ft, but will probably slightly increase into the 3-4ft range later in the week as the pressure gradient tightens and corresponding onshore flow increases. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 96 77 97 77 / 10 20 10 10 Houston (IAH) 97 79 97 78 / 20 30 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 91 83 92 84 / 30 10 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Castillo MARINE...47