FXUS64 KHGX 222341 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 541 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog overnight into Friday morning. - An Arctic front pushes through Friday night/Saturday, bringing various winter hazards over the weekend: - Extended periods of below freezing temperatures along with hard freezes for parts of the area Saturday night, Sunday night, and Monday night. (Extreme Cold Watch in effect Saturday evening thru Monday) - Low wind chill values, potentially near 0 in northwestern areas. - Freezing Rain/Sleet with hazardous to significant ice accumulations leading to hazardous road conditions (Winter Storm Watch in effect for most of SE Texas Saturday thru Sunday afternoon). - Hazardous marine conditions. - Residents are encouraged to winterize their home and make plans to keep themselves and loved ones warm during the work week prior to the arrival of the Arctic air. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Today through Friday night: A front remains stalled just offshore, with a weaker boundary located further inland. Cloudcover remains abundant in northeasterly flow on the cool side of the boundary, which may limit high temperatures today. Sea fog has also been persistent along bays and offshore waters with lower 60s dew points, and a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through tomorrow morning. Winds veer to southeasterly tonight, resulting in onshore flow. The warm front lifts northward, while colder air beginning to seep into the ArkLaTex causing a baroclinic zone to sharpen to our northeast. Conditions will be favorable for dense fog to expand over land areas tonight without a significant air mass change. A few light rain showers and areas of drizzle may also develop with isentropic lift. A strongly veering wind profile will set up on Friday with increasing east-southeasterly winds at the surface, southerly flow at low-levels, and southwesterly flow aloft. The more widespread/steadier precip will remain back over Central Texas during the day, but the pattern will be favorable for scattered showers. Cloudcover will continue to contribute to uncertainty in high temperatures, with the warmest temperatures in the southern Brazos Valley and coolest (but warm compared to what's to come) temperatures in the Piney Woods. Weak disturbances in southwest flow aloft will continue across the area Friday night with a 30kt LLJ developing and increasing deep layer moisture. Steadier precipitation will gradually move in from the west through the night. Cooler air will begin to seep into the Piney Woods, but ensembles are in good agreement in temperatures remaining above freezing there through Saturday morning. Saturday through Wednesday: The main driver for the upcoming winter storm will continue to be the partial phasing of the cutoff low off the coast of the Baja with a northern stream shortwave, resulting in a longwave trough approaching with a couple embedded shortwaves. A 1048mb high centered over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest will provide an ample source of cold Arctic air, while a wave of low pressure will develop along the stalled frontal boundary in the vicinity of the northwestern Gulf Coast. Widespread precipitation is expected during day on Saturday. 850mb temperatures remain warm aloft (+10 to +12C) Saturday and Saturday night. All eyes will turn to the freezing line at the surface. For most areas, at this time precipitation is expected to be all rain during the day on Saturday. However, areas in the northern Piney Woods/far northern Brazos Valley are expected to drop below freezing at some point during the afternoon, resulting in a changeover to freezing rain. The overall trend has been for a slower changeover, however there are still some ensemble members that are quicker, and we are not quite fully in range for all the high resolution models. Therefore, continue to check the latest forecast as timing could change. For the rest of the area, primarily elevated instability will be present, resulting in some embedded thunderstorms. Probabilities for surface-based convection near the coast remain low but not zero. Saturday evening there may be some lulls in precipitation at times, but precipitation should increase in intensity again after midnight as the main shortwave approaches. The freezing line will advance southeastward through the night. Current model consensus indicates freezing temperatures reaching the I-10 corridor by early Sunday morning, moving further south of I-10 for areas in the vicinity of the Colorado River. But we again want to emphasize the uncertainty in how far south and how quickly temperatures drop below freezing and a changeover to freezing rain begins. As we go through the morning on Sunday, guidance has trended slower with when precipitation exits the area, though not unanimously. This uncertainty along with the temperatures uncertainty contributes to compounding uncertainty regarding whether freezing rain makes it down to the coast, as well as freezing rain amounts along the I-10 corridor and northward. A scenario with a slower exit of precipitation would really increase freezing rain impacts given the very cold air moving in. We also continue to mention that any remaining moisture on roadways will potentially re-freeze, especially on elevated surfaces and highway overpasses. Probabilistic guidance continues suggest that the highest probability for ice accumulations of 0.25" are across the northern Piney Woods/northern Brazos Valley. These ice accumulations (meeting ice storm warning criteria) would result in difficult to impossible travel conditions as well as a major concern for weather-related power outages/tree damage. Winds will also contribute to the potential for weather-related power outages. Meaningful probabilities for 0.1" of ice extend southward to the I-10 corridor, which would also cause very difficult travel conditions, especially on elevated surfaces and highway overpasses, as well as some weather- related power outages. While probabilities for measurable freezing rain are lower near the coast, even light amounts may cause travel impacts. We continue to emphasize that even small amounts of ice accumulations can cause significant travel impacts. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect, mainly for areas along and north of I-10. Some sleet may mix in at times across the northern Brazos Valley/Piney Woods, but the main concern will be freezing rain. Will also note that there are some low probabilities for thunder in these areas late Saturday night given some elevated instability aloft, which could impact precipitation rates as well as fluctuations in precip type. It's also worth noting that there are medium chances for rainfall amounts greater than 2 inches. Flash flooding threat remains very low especially with recent dryness, but some minor nuisance flooding could occur in urban areas and other poor drainage areas. Confidence remains VERY HIGH in very cold wind chills and temperatures with and behind this system. These will begin primarily in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley Saturday night, and areawide Sunday night which will feature the lowest wind chills. The latest forecasts indicate wind chills reaching the single digits above zero across must of the area, with teens right along the coast. Some areas in the far northern Piney Woods may briefly see wind chills fall below zero. Air temperatures will be in the teens across much of the area Monday morning, and lower 20s near the coast and bays. Readings in the single digits up in Houston County are not out question. These hard freeze conditions and wind chills will be very dangerous to those outside, and steps will need to be taken to protect people, pets, plants, and pipes. An Extreme Cold Watch remains in effect for all of southeast Texas. Monday night will be very cold as well with light winds. JDavis && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 530 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Low ceilings will continue overnight and for much of Friday. Any isolated lower end MVFR cigs out there right now, should transition back down into IFR territory in the not too distant future. Also anticipate some lower vsby fog, that's currently lingering near Galveston to expand inland. LIFR cigs/vis cannot be ruled out for the majority of SE TX. And like today, just very modest improvement heading into the afternoon. In terms of precip, guidance is showing an uptick in potential very light rain (more likely drizzle from about 13z and beyond). I didn't include this mention in the TAFs attm, but will evaluate model trends overnight for possible inclusion in later TAF packages. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Dense fog will continue on and off this afternoon in the bays and coastal waters, becoming more widespread tonight into Friday morning. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect. An Arctic cold front is expected to push into the coastal waters late Friday night bringing a much colder airmass, strong north winds and building seas this weekend. Periods of precipitation are anticipated into Sunday with the potential for freezing rain in and around the bays Sunday morning. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 56 64 44 48 / 10 40 80 100 Houston (IAH) 59 67 53 56 / 0 30 50 90 Galveston (GLS) 59 65 57 64 / 0 20 40 90 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227- 300-313. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300- 313-335>338-436>439. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ330-335-350-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JDavis AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...JDavis