FXUS64 KHGX 040113 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 813 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Scattered showers and isolated storms today; more notable rain chances return Sunday into next week. - 4th of July: Isolated to scattered showers with a storm or two possible in the late morning/afternoon, rain chances trending down by fireworks showtime. - Hot temperatures persist with highs in the 90s and heat indices in the 100s. - Next plume of Saharan dust arrives Friday and lasts through the weekend...another plume after the middle of next week. - Early indications of widespread temperatures in the UPPER 90s after the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 If you have any outdoor plans either today or on the 4th of July, you'll want to read this as the forecast has trended a bit more rainy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are mainly west of I-45 around noontime today, and this is courtesy of a mid level disturbance that has worked its way underneath the ridge overhead. Combine that lifting mechanism with PW values near or over the 90th percentile (~2.08") and there ya go! 12Z CAMs reflect these showers/storms lasting through the afternoon before tapering off going into the evening hours. Coverage should generally remain greater west of I-45 due to closer proximity to a 25-30 kt LLJ currently over central TX. Going into Friday, we still have lift from embedded shortwaves combining with the elevated moisture along with that LLJ over central TX...so we'll see a bit of a repeat. 12Z CAMs are a bit more sparse on the coverage with the most activity generally occuring between 2PM-7PM, so keep that in mind if you'll be outdoors for the 4th of July. We're not anticipating any of these showers resulting in a washout of festivities, but you will likely want to bring a poncho or umbrella to stay dry. On the plus side, this means that high temperatures both today and on Friday will only top out in the upper 80s/low 90s. This is also a good time to mention that patchy fog will be possible tonight, especially for those that receive rain today. I'm not too confident on it though as upper level clouds will remain in place overnight and that should inhibit the fog from becoming too widespread. Over the weekend, temperatures rise into the mid 90s as rain chances briefly trend down. Rain chances return on Sunday as mid level high pressure slides off to the west allowing for various disturbances to drift into the area. A coastal trough looks to also come into play some time next week as well, so for this timeframe the best rain chances will be along and south of the I-10 corridor. After midweek, that mid level high strengthens out west increasing 500mb heights over our area. While that occurs, an 850mb high pressure settles in over the Gulf which will establish southwesterly flow aloft. 850mb temperatures climb to near or over the 90th percentile leading to quite the warming trend going into the end of the week. There are early indications that much of the area will top out in the upper 90s with heat indices well into the 100s. It is summertime after all and it hasn't been that bad so far! The City of Houston has seen less than 10 days so far this year with high temperatures above 95°F, but we will likely add onto those numbers next week. Continue to keep heat safety in mind: know the signs of heat related illnesses, stay hydrated (with water), take frequent breaks from the heat, wear loose/light-colored clothing and sunscreen, and ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Don't forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws. While I still have y'all's attention, let's talk about dust! The next plume of Saharan dust will move in late Friday lasting through Sunday and then there will be another plume moving in just after the middle of next week. Batiste && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Light SHRA will continue across SE Texas this evening before tapering off. Light southerly winds will prevail overnight with generally VFR CIGs. Brief MVFR CIGs possible for CLL just before sunrise. Otherwise, continued southerly/southeasterly light winds with showers and thunderstorms possible again during the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Generally light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas will prevail throughout the week. Isolated showers/storms will be possible through the end of the work week with the next best rain chances returning late Sunday into next week. The next plume of Saharan dust is expected to arrive on Friday and persist throughout the weekend leading to another round of hazy skies. Batiste Beach conditions: Use caution heading to the beach as a moderate risk of rip currents along all Gulf-facing beaches continues through Saturday. Always swim near a lifeguard and avoid swimming near piers and jetties. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 89 76 92 / 30 20 20 20 Houston (IAH) 78 90 78 93 / 30 30 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 83 89 83 89 / 10 20 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Batiste