FXUS64 KHGX 071832 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 132 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026 ...New MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered seabreeze showers and thunderstorms expected on a daily basis through early next week. - There is a chance of more numerous showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and/or Monday. - Seasonably hot with highs in the 90s and heat index values 101-108F each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026 The forecast is looking a lot like the month of August, with afternoon high temperatures in the 90s and moderate to high humidity. There is a daily risk of shower/thunderstorm activity for most of the forecast period, though there will be some day to day variation in PoPs. So let's jump right into it by first looking at the large / synoptic scale. Water vapor imagery shows a somewhat amplified pattern over North America, with a ridge over W CONUS, some troughing over the Midwest and Mississippi River Valley, and another ridge over the Atlantic near E CONUS. The SE Texas atmosphere is feeling the influence from the both the ridge to the west and the trough over the Mississippi River Valley. Ridging is dominant enough to prevent widespread convective initiation. But it's also weak enough to not prevent convective initiation. Already, we have some shower/thunderstorm activity firing up near the coast. We'll likely see this activity push inland with the sea breeze boundary. Saturday appears similar, though with PoPs extending a little farther inland that what we have today. As we head into the Sunday-Tuesday time frame, the aforementioned trough erodes, as the overall pattern across CONUS becomes more zonal. That being said, the two ridges (W CONUS ridge & Atlantic ridge) remain in place, while a weakness in the ridge lingers across the Midwest and Mississippi River Valley. This will support a steering current regime that takes whatever is in the Gulf towards Texas/Louisiana. Fortunately, we don't have any tropical concerns. But we do have a mid-level trough and associated plume of deep tropical moisture in the eastern Gulf. This pattern will push the moisture plume in our direction, which could increase shower/thunderstorm coverage by Sunday or Monday. However, there is disagreement in the guidance regarding the exact trajectory of the moisture plume. ECMWF deterministic / ensemble guidance suggest the heart of the plume pushes into SE Texas, bringing a pretty good chance of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. The AI version of the ECMWF also appears quite moist. The GFS deterministic/global/AI guidance has been drier, throwing the bulk of the PWAT towards Louisiana. That being said, the most recent GFS guidance is trending a little wetter. So I'm not going to be surprised if the current PoPs need increasing if the latest trends continue. Ridging is expected to build over our region as we head into the middle to latter park of next week, suggesting a lower PoPs and hotter temperature regime. Thus, you'll notice a rise in the temps and a decrease in the PoPs when you look at your location specific forecast. Perhaps the lone wild card is a mid/upper disturbance the guidance is throwing towards Mexico / deep south Texas. If that disturbance could track a little farther north, then we could have higher PoPs at the end of next week. For now, daily PoPs beyond Tuesday are very low. Self && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 107 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026 A few thunderstorms have begun to pop up this afternoon along the seabreeze. Storms are expected to move inland through the rest of the afternoon and early evening. Around these storms, expect elevated and variable winds of 10-15KTS and gusts up to 25KTS. This pattern of afternoon thunderstorms along the seabreeze will be repetitive over the next several days. Winds are generally out of the SSW today, go near calm overnight, and pick back up by late tomorrow morning out of the SSW-SSE. As for VIS, another round of patchy fog is expected early tomorrow morning, especially in areas where winds become near calm overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026 Generally light to moderate south to southeast winds are expected through the middle of next week. Gulf seas should average 2-4 feet. There will be a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms through early next week. Shower / thunderstorm activity could become more widespread on Monday, though there is a little uncertainty regarding how much the coverage will be. Late next week is generally looking drier and hotter. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 95 75 95 / 0 10 10 10 Houston (IAH) 78 94 78 95 / 0 30 10 30 Galveston (GLS) 82 91 82 90 / 10 20 20 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...MLG MARINE...Self