FXUS64 KHGX 091702 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1202 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Expect increasingly warm and humid conditions as the week progresses. - Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms persist into next week. - Strong rip currents expected along Gulf-facing beaches through the end of the week. - Monitoring the potential for strong to severe storms early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026 Satellite derived PW values paints the picture fairly well of the two spectrums of drier air and humid air. Over in the Piney Woods, PW values remain around 0.9" which is just above the 25th percentile (~0.73"). Down near Matagorda Bay, PW values are closer to the 75th (~1.30") and 90th percentile (~1.52"). As a result, we have already seen isolated showers develop down in our southwestern zones this morning. According to the CAMs (including me), the bulk of the activity for the remainder of the day will be relegated to areas west of I-45...so some in the western portions of the Brazos Valley may see some rainfall later this afternoon once peak heating aids in increasing convective coverage. While rain chances continue into Friday, the synoptic setup is quite a bit more interesting. Late tonight and into Friday, there will be an embedded shortwave trough pushing through southern Texas. As it does so though, a ridge will be building in with 500mb heights beginning to increase as early as Friday morning. We'll have widespread PW values in the 75th to 90th percentile, so there definitely will be showers/storms. The main question is how much of the convective coverage will be inhibited by the increasing subsidence. Some of the latest CAM guidance does reflect reduced coverage from previous model runs, so the subsidence will definitely play a role. This will likely be a day where some of you get a brief heavy downpour and others stay bone dry...but that's fairly typical here anyway. I for one will be washing my car to try to influence that heavy downpour to pop up down here to knock down this tree pollen...my sinuses need a break y'all. The ridge axis begins to slide out to the east on Saturday, so rain chances will be higher over western areas with low-level moisture remaining elevated. The ridge sliding out is the result of an approaching upper level low from the Pacific Northwest. This upper level low will play a role in our forecast in the early to middle part of next week, so we'll talk about that more in the next paragraph. On Sunday, rain chances will be higher over the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods due to the positioning of a passing jet streak and LLJ. PW values will peak near the max value (~1.88") in our northern areas, so locally heavy rainfall is certainly possible. This could lead to isolated instances of urban and small stream flooding especially in areas with poor drainage and low-lying areas. As a result, the WPC has outlined far northern portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Sunday. The previously mentioned upper level low will push into the Central Plains in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe. As it does so, a dry line will be set up to our northwest over in western Texas. Surface low pressure develops late Monday on the leeside of the Rockies which places us firmly in the warm sector with plentiful moisture and instability. It's still too early to look too much into the exact details, but factoring all of that in along with a rather robust mid-level jet setting up to our northwest...the ingredients are all certainly there for strong to severe storms. SPC already has portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods in a 15% probability for severe weather on Wednesday. The outlook will likely change over the coming days as confidence increases on timing and extent of the severe weather threat. For now, it does look like the potential for strong to severe storms is greater to our northwest, but we'll continue to monitor trends as next week approaches. Be sure to stay up to date on the forecast for the latest details and remain weather aware. As far as temperatures go, high temperatures will remain generally in the upper 70s to low 80s through the weekend with mid to upper 80s likely coming early next week. Low temperatures will range from the low 60s to low 70s, but those low 70s will become increasingly widespread as we head into the weekend. Who doesn't love low temperatures near the normal high temperature?! Oh that's right...no one does! Batiste && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 542 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026 MVFR CIGs/cloud decks encompass most of SE Texas early today, with some pockets of fog/lower cigs resulting in IFR-LIFR FLs at locations such as KCXO. Expect CIGs/fog to lift and clear after sunrise with VFR returning area-wide by the late morning/early afternoon. Showers and storms are possible during the daytime, though chances and coverage are too low to warrant mention for today. Another round of MVFR CIGs with pockets of fog are anticipated again overnight into Friday. Scattered showers/storms will be possible across the region on Friday. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026 Southeasterly winds will continue to increase throughout the day alongside elevated seas, so small craft should exercise caution through at least Friday morning. Caution flags may need to be extended further into Friday depending on the wave heights in the Gulf waters. Another result of the increased onshore flow is the increased risk of strong rip currents along Gulf-facing beaches through the end of the week. Expect wave heights to remain elevated as well due to an extended fetch of easterly to east-southeasterly winds stretching into the eastern Gulf bringing in a swell of elevated seas. Seas are expected to peak in the 5-7 ft range in the Gulf waters through the weekend. Winds further increase over the weekend and into early next week. Small Craft Advisories cannot be ruled out. Daily chances for showers and storms will persist going into next week, but these chances peak on Friday as an upper level disturbance pushes through the area. Elevated winds and seas could occur in and around thunderstorms. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 65 80 66 81 / 20 60 10 40 Houston (IAH) 68 81 68 83 / 20 60 10 40 Galveston (GLS) 71 77 72 78 / 30 60 20 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Friday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...03 MARINE...Batiste