FXUS64 KHGX 091926 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 226 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot conditions will continue today as daytime highs will be in the mid 90s with heat indices reaching the triple digits. - Lower chances of rain today. Isolated to scattered seabreeze showers and thunderstorms are possible closer to the coast. - Deep Gulf moisture will arrive Friday morning causing rain chances to increase Friday and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A drier airmass prevails today as shown by Water Vapor and the Blended Total Precip Water satellite imagery. Dry air (particularly inland) and mid-level stability are effectively capping most convective development this afternoon. However, cannot rule out isolated to scattered, sea breeze showers and storms mainly along and south of I-10 through early this evening. Heading into Friday, the pattern begins to shift. As the ridge of high pressure amplifies over the Rockies and Plains, a weak mid- level trough will track westward across the western Gulf, sliding along the southern TX coast. This setup will usher in a deep surge of tropical moisture across the region, with PW values in the 1.9- 2.1 inch range. This will result in widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, with rain and storms developing along the coast late at night into the morning. Then spreading inland late morning through the afternoon. As Southeast TX sits on the southern periphery of the broad high pressure ridge, the region will remain vulnerable to shortwaves/vorticity maxes aloft tracking westward underneath the ridge. Therefore, expect a return to a more active, mostly diurnally-driven, convective period. This wet pattern will settle in for the weekend and persist through at least the first half of next week. Have PoPs around 40 to 70% through this period. Localized heavy downpours and strong gusty winds will be possible with any stronger storms. Temperatures will generally remain in the low to mid 90s during the day, and will be warm and muggy at night with overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s. Peak heat indices in the triple digits (100- 107F) can be expected each afternoon. A slight relief from the heat will be possible early next week as cloud cover and rain chances could potentially result in high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s, which is a few degrees below normal for this time of year. JM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Latest satellite and radar imagery show generally quiet conditions across the forecast area, with VFR prevailing at most TAF sites. Patchy fog is on going across the region with KCXO briefly dropping down to IFR conditions. A couple of ASOS stations across the region show MVFR conditions as well. That said, most sites around the region remain at or above 7 mils this morning. Still kept the possibility for some visibilities down to 6 miles for a few sites this morning, with KCXO reflecting MVFR conditions. A SAL intrusion is expected today, which should put a lid on shower and thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening. However, some isolated showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze can not be ruled out. Winds look to remain light to gentle out of the SW/S through tonight. Convective Allowing Models are starting to show a cloud deck building in towards the end of IAH's 12z TAF period. It is too early to tell if cigs will support MVFR conditions, but an increase in sky conditions appears likely over the next couple of TAF cycles. && .MARINE... Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas will continue tonight, and persist well into the upcoming week. Seas will generally remain 1-3 ft. Winds and seas will occasionally increase/build Friday into the weekend, resulting in periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. Rain and storm chances will be on the increase Friday into the weekend, with the best chances overnight through early afternoons. Elevated winds and seas will be possible near any stronger storms. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 95 78 95 / 10 30 10 30 Houston (IAH) 79 94 79 94 / 10 30 20 60 Galveston (GLS) 84 90 85 90 / 20 50 30 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Williams MARINE...JM