FXUS64 KHGX 021901 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 201 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered seabreeze activity continuing this afternoon as well as a Marginal Risk of severe storms for the northern half of the region due to strong winds moving in from the northeast possible late this afternoon/evening. - Hot and humid conditions expected through mid-week. Make sure to be prepared for the heat if you plan to work or spend time outdoors. - Shower/storm chances increase going into the end of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026 More robust seabreeze shower/storm activity today, with the early afternoon activity favoring the southwestern portions of the region near Matagorda Bay. Isolated to scattered activity will continue through the afternoon. Showers and storms blossoming across northeast TX along a southward propagating boundary will continue to push south throughout the afternoon towards the northern fringes of the CWA. This area is a focal point for severe weather potential due to robust instability profiles, which will tend towards a damaging wind threat. While probabilities are lower, cannot rule out this line of storms maintaining into the evening hours, thus the severe threat exists for at least the northern half of the CWA through the evening hours. The Houston metro area has lower chances for seeing the more robust activity as storms dissipate going through the evening hours, so the expectation at this point would be increasing wind gust potential in the 30-40 mph range late this evening. The ridge axis begins to slide out to the east on Wednesday as an upper level low over the Baja Peninsula begins its trek eastward. This decrease in subsidence paired with placement into southwesterly flow aloft and PW values remaining elevated means that chances for showers/storms will continue through the work week. Shower/storm chances increase further towards the end of the work week and into the weekend as the upper level low moves in closer. The progression of the low is a little bit uncertain after it moves into northern Mexico by Friday. Most guidance takes it northeastward near the Texas Panhandle, but from there guidance is split on if it lingers or if it continues northeastward. Either way, southwest flow aloft and PW values over 2" does equal increased rain chances. The peak of this moisture looks to occur Friday into Saturday with PW values potentially nearing 2.2-2.4". This deeper tropical moisture would be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, so it's not a surprise that most of Southeast Texas is already in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Friday. Parts of the area will likely be outlooked for the weekend as well as we get closer to the weekend. The good news about the increased rain chances is that this means we'll have slightly lower daytime temperatures. We'll trade out the early week high temperatures in the low 90s for high temperatures in the upper 80s by the end of the work week. Young/Batiste && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 548 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026 Again seeing a mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR ceilings and vsbys early this morning. These should all trend into VFR territory in the mid morning hours. Expect some scattered seabreeze activity in the metro/coastal areas into the early afternoon hours...with additional cell development further inland with daytime heating. Attention turns to E/NE TX late in the day, where guidance is pointing to expanding storm development...eventually congealing into a broken southwest moving line. Some of these storms could be on the strong side...with gusts to 35kt+ not out of realm of possibility in/near the stronger cells. UTS/CLL should be on the lookout early in the evening. CXO, IAH, HOU, GLS then follow in the 02-06z timeframe. Hires guidance suggests some weakening with time as they push toward I-10, but these southwest movers tend to overperform (both in intensity and forward movement) so keep an eye on the wx. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1132 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026 Light onshore flow and low seas will prevail through this evening. A weak frontal boundary approaches the waters late this evening leading to a transition to easterly winds. Cannot entirely rule a band of showers/storms in association with this boundary pushing offshore with potential for gusty winds. Winds transition back to east-southeasterly to southeasterly by Wednesday night into Thursday with wind speeds occasionally strengthening near the caution flag threshold going into the weekend. The occasionally stronger onshore flow will lead to gradually building seas towards the end of the work week. Another consequence of the occasionally stronger onshore flow is an increased risk of rip currents beginning around midweek. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible daily, but expect these chances to increase towards the end of the work week. Young/Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 87 72 85 / 50 30 20 60 Houston (IAH) 74 87 73 85 / 50 50 40 80 Galveston (GLS) 79 86 78 86 / 40 50 60 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Young/Batiste AVIATION...47 MARINE...Young/Batiste