FXUS64 KHGX 290534 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1134 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty onshore winds are occurring. This will make for some rough marine conditions on area bays and coastal Gulf waters, where a small craft advisory is in effect. It will also bring in warmer and more humid air to the area in advance of our next shot of rain and storms. - Those rain chances will creep back into the forecast with possible showers overnight into this morning, but peak ahead of and along our next next cold front tonight. There is a marginal risk for a severe storm and/or heavy downpours - roughly a 5-15 percent chance. - An even chillier airmass comes in following the weekend front, opening December on a cold note. We can expect to see the return of nights with temperatures reaching lows around or just below freezing to a portion of the area, most likely north of the Houston metro. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1011 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 A cold front is set to move through the area Saturday night, bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms along with it. Out ahead of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to begin overnight as low-level convergence increases and a shortwave makes it way across the area. This activity is expected to persist through out the day Saturday and appears to merge with the front that moves through later that night. With this scenario, there is the potential for training of storms to occur and produce locally heavy rainfall. This has resulted in WPC placing the entire area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall...a couple of caveats with that, though...with being in a drought, the flood potential highly dependent on how fast the soil can absorb the rainfall compared to how high the rain rate is. Typically, in colder weather the soil has a little more difficulty with quicker absorption. We have been on the warmer side for this time of year, and dry soils may mitigate the potential, so the flood potential remains marginal, but something to be aware of. Similarly, SPC has the entire area in a marginal risk for severe weather Saturday. CAPE values are not all that impressive (around ~1000 J/kg, which is enough to help kick off storms, but on the lower end of the spectrum energy wise)...shear, however, is at a sufficient level to result in a few organized storms/supercells. 0-6 km Bulk Shear values are coming in around 30-40 kts ...and winds do veer with height...typically in low CAPE/high shear environments we could get organized storms that could produce damaging winds, hail, and brief tornadoes. Timing of main line of storms has slowed down by a few hours with the latest guidance. While showers and storms will be ongoing out ahead of the front, the front itself is not expected to arrive to the Brazos Valley until around 9 PM (give or take a couple hours). It is expected to push offshore around 3 AM (again, give or take a couple hours). A drastic change in temperatures will occur behind the front Saturday into Sunday as strong CAA brings a chilly and dry airmass in the area. Highs for Sunday through Tuesday will struggle to get out of the 50s for most of the area, with some locations in the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods struggling to even get into the 50s. Overnight lows will be on the chilly side Sunday night through Tuesday night as temperatures drop into the 30s and 40s. We will need to continue to monitor the potential for some locations to get into freezing temperatures Monday night for rural areas to the west of the metro and locations to the north of the metro. Onshore flow returns on Tuesday, which won't do much to bring daytime temperatures out of the 50s, it will put a damper on the potential for freezing temperatures that night. Onshore flow will precede the next front later in the week next week. Bailey && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 503 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Sustained southeasterly winds of 10-15kt will continue through Saturday afternoon. Areas south of I-10 will continue to see gusts to 20-25kt through the next few hours before stopping, but will return area-wide by the mid-morning hours on Saturday. Winds will also be shifting more southerly through the day on Saturday. VFR conditions with BKN to OVC mid/high level clouds will persist across the region until late tonight, but some lower CIGs (down to around 2500ft) will begin to encroach CLL and UTS early Saturday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Increasing moisture ahead of this front will lead to widely scattered showers across the area Saturday afternoon. This front is expected to pass through the area late Saturday evening into overnight Saturday, and will bring a chance of thunderstorms with its passage. FROPA will likely occur at CLL between 2-4z, at IAH between 5-7z, and then off the coast between 7-9z. Breezy northerly winds are expected behind the front. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1011 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 mall Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters as moderate to strong southeasterly winds and building seas continue. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase ahead of a strong cold front that should be pushing off the coast after midnight, around 2am, and across the Gulf waters through the late night and early Sunday morning hours. A few storms may be on the stronger side. Moderate to strong offshore flow and elevated seas will persist in the wake of the front. An upper level disturbance is forecast to push overhead Sunday night and Monday bringing another chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the waters. At the coast, stronger onshore winds will push tidal levels above astronomical norms, but for now appear to stay below 3 feet above MLLW, which should largely preclude any coastal flooding issues. The strength of the onshore winds will be more effective in generating dangerous rip currents at Gulf-facing beaches, and a rip current statement is in place for that danger. Bailey && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 57 73 41 50 / 20 70 80 10 Houston (IAH) 58 75 48 55 / 20 50 80 30 Galveston (GLS) 64 76 56 60 / 10 30 80 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bailey AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...Bailey