FXUS64 KHGX 072325 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 625 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot conditions will continue through the forecast period. Daytime highs will be in the 90s with heat indices in the triple digits. - Isolated-scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Stronger cells will be capable of producing some 25-45 mph wind gusts. - A deeper surge of Gulf moisture should arrive late in the week and weekend. Warm, muggy conditions persist with daily chances of rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are popping up early this afternoon, mainly over the coastal counties. This activity is driven primarily by daytime heating and mesoscale seabreeze boundaries. Further north, weak mid-level troughiness sitting over the ArkLaTex region will also contribute to some forcing this afternoon. Combined with PW values in the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range, scattered activity cannot be ruled out, primarily north of I-10, through this evening. With DCAPE values roughly between 1,000-1,220 J/kg, dry air aloft could easily accelerate downdrafts, resulting in localized strong wind gusts with the strongest storms. Locally heavy downpours and frequent lightning will also be a risk. Expect activity to taper off between 7-9pm with the loss of daytime heating. From Wednesday through the end of the workweek, a drying trend is expected as a mid-level ridge over the Rockies gradually strengthens, suppressing overall moisture availability. However, persistent southerly surface flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture inland. Paired with daytime heating and seabreeze interactions, expect the typical pattern of isolated morning showers along the coast, transitioning into isolated storms further inland by afternoon. Model guidance points to Friday as having the best overall rain chances during this mid-week stretch. Heading into Saturday and the rest of the forecast period, southeast Texas will be positioned in a relative weakness between two ridges. Despite a bit of broad mid-level subsidence, a surge of moisture will filter into the region, leading to rain and storm chances (30 to 60 %) over the weekend. Mid to upper level pattern will keep the region under the influence of persistent troughiness, ahead of an approaching backdoor cool front moving south from the northeast. Therefore, daily chances of showers and storms will continue through the upcoming week. Temperature-wise, conditions will remain seasonably hot and typical for July standards. Highs mainly in the mid 90s, with peak heat indices ranging from 100-107F. JM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist across the area, especially north of I-10, through the early/mid evening hours. Maintained TEMPO groups at KUTS and KCXO through 01-02Z/8-9 PM CDT for the best potential of thunderstorms. By or just before 03Z/10 PM, precipitation should all be dissipated and VFR should prevail at all TAF sites. Patchy, light fog is anticipated to develop again near sunrise Wednesday, highest probabilities along and west of I-45. Once whatever fog that develops erodes and ceilings lift, VFR will prevail through much of the day. However, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop again along the seabreeze. Any heavy/strong shower or storm that moves over any terminals will cause visibilities to drop to IFR/MVFR levels. Added PROB30 groups for TSRA at most sites, generally between 18-00Z Thursday, though exact coverage and probabilities are still unknown at this time. Winds stay mostly light through the period, with light southwest surface winds in the morning veering more out of the south in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas (generally 1-3 ft) will prevail through most of the period as surface high remains strong across the eastern Gulf. A daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and storms is anticipated, with the best chances Friday - Saturday and the upcoming week. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 96 77 96 / 20 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 79 97 79 96 / 30 20 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 83 91 84 90 / 10 20 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Mejia MARINE...JM