FXUS64 KHGX 061136 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 536 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm weather will continue into Saturday. - Increased shower & thunderstorm chances this weekend as a front stalls in the area. - Sea fog will remain an intermittent issue near the southern Galveston Bay area and adjacent Gulf waters for the next several days. - Another round of storm chances around the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1212 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 The current weather pattern we're in is more typical for late April/early May as we had yet another day of high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. These above normal temperatures will continue into Friday along with some chances for isolated to scattered rain showers throughout the day. Sea fog continues to be an intermittent issue in the southern part of Galveston Bay and the adjacent coastal Gulf waters during the late afternoon to early morning hours. Southeasterly winds will be on the rise overnight though, which hypothetically should inhibit the extent of the fog...but the fog tends to have a mind of its own most of the time. Nevertheless, another round of patchy sea fog is expected Friday night into Saturday morning...but less so on Saturday night as chances for showers and storms will be on the rise. Before we discuss the front though, I just wanted to add onto the stats that we talked about yesterday. Thursday, March 5th, made it day 9 in a row for the City of Houston seeing a high temperature of 80°F or greater. We are definitely making it to double digits with highs in the low to mid 80s expected going into Saturday. Low temperatures will continue to range in the upper 60s to low 70s, which is actually what our normal high temperatures are for this time of the year. The temperature forecast becomes a little bit complex over the weekend though as we have a frontal boundary that will stall out "somewhere" over Southeast TX. Friday deserves a brief mention even though the CAMs (I suppose that includes me as well) aren't too excited with the storm potential. A 35-45 kt LLJ develops by Friday morning and overlaps with PW values near or above the 90th percentile (~1.39"), which brings the initial start of some sporadic rain showers...we can actually coin this as scattered nonsense. Speaking of that LLJ, winds on Friday will be quite gusty especially west of I-45. This area is very borderline for a Wind Advisory. Winds may gust up to 30-35 mph at times through the afternoon. A dry line will still be situated to our west, which may serve as an initiating point for storms later in the afternoon. Again, the CAMs show nothing more than spotty showers in our area throughout the day. If a storm defies the odds and manages to get going though, then it does carry the potential to become strong to severe. SPC has areas north of a Columbus-Conroe-Livingston line outlined in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather on Friday. The severe potential increases going into Saturday. Going into Friday night, an approaching frontal boundary overtakes the dry line and this is where the synoptic flow becomes very important. The northern portion of the upper level trough continues on a northeastward trajectory towards the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a cutoff low develops and drifts southwestward towards the Baja Peninsula where it'll remain over the weekend (put a pin in this for now). This leaves the front with not much synoptic forcing to push it cleanly through. As a result, the front is expected to stall out "somewhere" over Southeast TX...model guidance varies on how far southward the front makes it before it stalls out on Saturday. It may make it near the coast or it may stall out north of I-10 depending on which model guidance you believe. Wherever this front stalls out at though will be the main area of focus for the heavy rainfall potential. With PW values well above the 90th percentile as well, some of this rainfall will be locally heavy at times which could lead to localized instances of street flooding. Chances for heavy rain stick around into Sunday till the frontal boundary pushes back northward, but the bulk of the rain looks to fall on Saturday night. WPC has most of Southeast TX outlined in a slight risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall for Saturday and all of Southeast TX in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) on Sunday. See the HYDROLOGY section below for further discussion on rainfall rates and the implications of the preceding drought conditions. As the front pushes in on Saturday afternoon/evening, there is potential for some storms to become strong to severe and carry the potential for damaging winds and hail. As a result, most of Southeast TX is outline in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather on Saturday. Going into the middle of next week, the previously mentioned upper level low will make its way eastward through the state leading to another round of showers and storms ahead of and along the associated frontal boundary. This looks to generally be in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe. However, the GFS is trending slower on the progression of the upper level low, which means the heavy rain potential sticks around later into the work week. You can imagine what that would do for rainfall totals. For now, we'll continue to monitor trends, so be sure to stay up to date on the forecast. I know that Spring Break is next week for a lot of you, but be sure to keep an eye on the forecast for updates as there is potential for another round of strong to severe storms and heavy rain around midweek. Once the upper level low and the associated front push past us though, model guidance continues to trend towards a bit more seasonal temperatures...so we have that to look forward to! Until then though, high temperatures will remain mainly in the 80s with lows in the 60s/70s. Batiste && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 516 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 Ceilings will be a repeat of yesterday with high end IFR to low end MVFR CIGs (between 900-1200ft) will continue through around 14-15z, with improvements to high end MVFR to VFR conditions expected by the late morning to early afternoon. The one exception will be GLS where MVFR CIGs will continue through the day. GLS will also be dealing with patchy sea fog lowering visibility to 1-4mi through the morning as well. A return to MVFR conditions area-wide will occur between 00-03z with CIGs to around 2000ft, and then to IFR by 03-06z with CIGs down to around 700ft that will continue into Saturday morning. Southeasterly winds around 10-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt are expected this afternoon with the gusts diminishing after sunset, but the southeasterly winds will likely remain near 10kt through the night. Some isolated light showers will be possible through today with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms in the Piney Woods region this evening into tonight. Chances and coverage will be too low at terminals south of UTS to include in the TAFs, but do have a PROB30 of -TSRA at UTS and CLL tonight. Chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms will increase after 18z Saturday as a cold front moves into and then stalls across SE Texas. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1212 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 Once again sea fog began to push into the southern portion of Galveston Bay late Thursday afternoon. As a result, another Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through Friday morning for Galveston Bay and the adjacent nearshore Gulf waters. Southeasterly winds will be on the rise overnight though, which could inhibit the fog from remaining dense. Chances for fog continues over the next couple of days during the overnight to morning hours. However, elevated winds during the overnight hours could inhibit the extent of the fog. Outside of the fog, an elongated fetch of light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the end of the week leading to gradually increasing seas. Winds may approach the caution flag threshold at times. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return over the weekend and around the middle of next week. Batiste && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1212 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026 Now that we have the combination of a slight risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall over the weekend combined with the vast majority of Southeast TX (~90%) in a severe to extreme drought, I figured it'd be a good time to have a hydrologic focused discussion. It's still a bit too early to lock in on specific rainfall totals especially since uncertainty remains on exactly where the frontal boundary will stall out at...but we can discuss the environment ahead of this event and how high rainfall rates may interact with the dry soils. As y'all are aware, the vast majority of us have not seen notable (or any) rain since February 14th which is coming up on 3 weeks ago. ~90% of the region is in a severe to extreme drought...~26% of the region is in an extreme drought (mostly west of the Brazos River and Liberty County). PW values are anticipated to be at or above the 90th percentile for both this weekend's rainfall event and for the next round around the middle of next week, so locally heavy rainfall is definitely on the table. Dry soils aren't able to absorb rainfall efficiently leading to a quicker transition to runoff. Rainfall rates of 2-3" per hour combined with these dry soils could lead to instances of localized flooding, so we'll be monitoring where these heavier rains fall which will likely be along the stalled frontal boundary. We'll also be monitoring downstream flows from Wednesday's heavy rain event near Dallas in which most of the rainfall fell into the Trinity River basin. From what we've seen so far though from the upstream flows, Lake Livingston should be able to manage this influx. Another round of heavy rain is expected around the middle of next week as well, so we're entering into a more active period. As far as rivers go, we may see some instances of action to minor stage flooding especially along the Trinity River basin. That's just something to keep in mind as we head into the weekend/midweek! Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 86 70 83 60 / 30 50 90 80 Houston (IAH) 84 72 85 68 / 40 30 80 70 Galveston (GLS) 76 68 75 67 / 20 10 60 70 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ335-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...Batiste