FXUS64 KHGX 061034 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 534 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to widespread storms are anticipated again on Sunday. - Though isolated to scattered precipitation is expected on a daily basis during the early and mid parts of next week, overall areal coverage should be a bit less...and we'll see some warmer temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 Showers and thunderstorms have dissipated for the night, but the break is expected to be short-lived as an upper-level low approaches and deep moisture continues to filter in. Hi-Res models suggest a few showers could develop along the coast and in the Gulf Waters during the early morning hours. Expect activity to spread inward and become more scattered to widespread in coverage through the day, with thunderstorms developing as daytime heating kicks in this afternoon. With the abundant moisture still overhead and light winds aloft, some storms could be slow moving and produce locally heavy rainfall, leading to isolated instances of flooding. Ridging will build back in early in the work-week, bringing hotter conditions and a decrease in rain chances compared to this past week. Daily isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible and will be largely diurnally driven through mid-week. Highs during this time will reach into the low to mid-90s inland, with heat indices in the 102-109F range. A few of the global models continue to suggest increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms near the end of the week as a weak mid-level disturbance approaches from the Gulf. There is variation among the models with regard to strength and timing of the disturbance; however, models and ensemble guidance both suggest an uptick in moisture during this time frame. Currently the highest probabilities for precipitation reside over the coastal counties and Gulf waters, particularly during the afternoon hours. This pattern appears to stay through the weekend. Bailey && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 534 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 Showers have begun to develop along the coast early this morning, and model trends point towards gradually increasing coverage near LBX/GLS through the morning. Additional convection is expected again this afternoon with IAH and sites southward having the highest probabilities for convective impacts. TEMPOs reflect the window of when convection is most active, but lingering showers/storms may persist till 01-02Z before dissipating with the loss of daytime heating. Some storms may be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall (reduced visibilities/ceilings) and gusty winds. Outside of any convection, light southeasterly winds around 4-8 kt in the daytime then becoming light and variable overnight. Cannot entirely rule out intermittent periods of reduced visibilities due to patchy fog early Monday morning. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Upper Texas Coast this weekend into next week. These storms will be capable of producing heavy downpours as well as frequent lightning and erratic winds. Building seas will also be possible near stronger storms. Otherwise, expect light to occasionally moderate onshore winds with 2-3 foot seas to prevail through late next week Bailey && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 95 76 98 76 / 60 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 93 78 96 79 / 60 10 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 90 82 91 83 / 50 10 20 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bailey AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Bailey