FXUS64 KHGX 090636 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1236 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Risk of strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening ahead of a cold front. - Cool, dry and windy conditions develop behind the front on Saturday. - Slight warm up on Tuesday before another reinforcing front on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1228 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 A much deeper mid/upper level trough is expected to pass through the Plains today, providing support for additional showers and storms across the area. Favorable bulk shear totals of around 45-65 knots will certainly help with storm organization, though instability is leaning on the low end in ensemble means (topping out around 1200 J/KG) though some individual runs still show the potential to get 2000J/KG or more. While the strongest forcing with this system will still be much further ENE, conditions locally still appear to be sufficiently potent to get some discrete strong/severe storms today. Models keep pinging the norther half of the CWA across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods for the strongest updraft helicity (again, locally speaking), courtesy of an embedded shortwave in some ensemble members. The severe weather risk will kick off during the afternoon (starting around noon), and will continue into the evening as the shortwave passes. While storms should propagate from northwest to southeast with the FROPA, the strongest storms are more likely to track with the shortwave over the northern half of our area. Wouldn't completely rule out the potential for some stronger storms to the south as well as the front moves off the coast. SE Texas will be under a Slight (level 2/5) to Marginal (level 1/5) Risk for severe weather today, with all severe hazards still in play. The cold front should be off the coast early Saturday morning with cooler, drier weather and strong northerly winds developing in it's wake, especially across the barrier islands. Highs will be in the mid 50s/lower 60s with early morning lows in the 30s/40s. Winds begin to decrease on Sunday as high pressure starts to push off to the east. Overnight into Monday morning will likely be the coolest part of the forecast with lows dipping into the upper 20s in the Piney Woods/Crockett. Cooler weather persists through Monday with onshore flow slated to return Tuesday, resulting in rising temperatures and rain chances into Wednesday. Another trough digging through the Mississippi River Valley should push a reinforcing front into the area around mid week, helping keep cooler conditions in place a through Thursday. 03 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 545 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026 Complicated forecast cycle ahead for details, but broad strokes are confident - smattering of showers moves off to the east, replaced by MVFR conditions for most, as low as IFR for some. Anticipating best conditions for most urban Houston terminals, while exurban and northern sites manage IFR CIGs, and sea fog impacts coastal sites. Sketched out timing as best I could, but will require monitoring through the evening and overnight hours to make sure TAF tracks with reality. Tomorrow also looks complicated with pre-frontal trough and trough approaching. SHRA could start to emerge as early as 12Z for northernmost sites, and throughout the day across the area. Best chances likely to be in the afternoon and early evening. Starting with VCs/PROB30s as rain should be more scattered than widespread, but may be able to introduce TEMPO/Prevailing in later cycles should confidence in impact to a specific terminal increases. For now, keep TSRA mentions to northern terminals and IAH extended, but future cycles will need to address this more broadly. && .MARINE... Issued at 1228 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 Winds continue to decrease overnight, though seas remain elevated offshore. They should slowly come down, though caution flags will remain in place for the time being to allow seas to subside. Sea fog will still be a concern this morning and likely this evening too ahead of an approaching cold front, as dense patches will be possible. Showers and storms will likely accompany the front with an isolated strong to severe possible as well. The front should push off the coast later tonight/early Saturday morning. Moderate to strong northerly winds behind the front will warrant Small Craft Advisories at a minimum over the better half of the weekend. Cannot completely rule out the potential for Gale conditions either. Winds and seas slowly decrease Sunday into next week. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 46 58 36 / 70 60 10 0 Houston (IAH) 79 53 63 42 / 70 70 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 76 57 66 48 / 50 80 40 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...03