FXUS64 KHGX 042323 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 523 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold night ahead with temperatures dropping into the 30s and low 40s for most areas and near sub-freezing levels in the Houston and Madison counties. - Following a cool Thursday, warmer than normal temperatures return Friday, and carry through early next week with highs rising into the 70s and lows drifting upward into the 50s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026 Fair weather prevails across the region as a drier and slightly cooler airmass filters in following this morning's frontal passage. A mid to upper level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will continue to slide eastward across the region this afternoon. With limited moisture and convergence at the surface, only expect a stream of mid-level clouds through early this evening. Surface winds will gradually weaken this evening as the pressure gradient slackens and high pressure builds over TX. Light winds and clear skies will provide an ideal setup for radiational cooling. Therefore, a cold night is on tap for the region, and it's shaping up to be the last cold night of the week. Expect lows generally in the 30s and in the low 40s in the Houston metro and along the islands. Sub-freezing temperatures are expected around the Houston and Madison counties. Dry and cool conditions continue on Thursday, but this time, winds will remain on the lighter side. A surface ridge moves south of the region late in the afternoon, shifting winds to the west, then south by the evening hours. Beyond Friday, return flow from the departing high will begin to bring warm, humid southerly flow back to the region. Most deterministic and ensemble means suggest highs generally in the upper 70s. A few members bring temperatures into the 90th percentile of climatology (based on NAEFS/GEFS), so it would not be surprising if some locations reach the 80-degree mark Sunday/Monday. Beyond Monday, the main forecast concern revolves around decreasing heights largely due to the evolution of a low pressure near Baja California. We will continue to monitor the progress of this system as it moves over the southern Rockies/Plains and its possible impacts across SE TX. This system looks to bring decent PVA with height, paired with the upper jet and increasing PWATs with values close to the daily max. However, there are some discrepancies between models regarding the track/strength of this system once it moves over West TX. As of now, PoPs will remain as the NBM suggests with 15 to 20 percent chance. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 516 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026 VFR expected through the end of the TAF period. N-NW winds at 10-15 KTS this evening will gradually decrease to around 5 KTS overnight. NW winds will increase again late Thu morning, and may become gusty at times during the day as a weak llvl jet remains overhead. Winds are expected to turn W-NW Thu evening and W-SW Thu night as a sfc high pressure moves southward from the Lower Texas Coast into the NW Gulf waters. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026 The front that moved through the region is already well offshore, leaving elevated winds and seas in its wake. Strong north winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30-35 knots are expected through early this evening. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through early Thursday morning. Surface high pressure centered across TX will maintain light offshore winds Thursday before moderate SW winds prevail on Friday. Light and generally onshore winds will persist through the weekend and into early next week. The next chances for rain arrive next Tuesday as a disturbance moves through the region. We will continue to monitor water levels across the bays today and Thursday, as negative water levels (around 0.5 to 1 ft below MLLW) are expected during times of low tide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 36 66 43 77 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 40 64 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 45 59 52 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ350-355-370- 375. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Cotto MARINE...JM