FXUS64 KHGX 012124 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 324 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazardous marine conditions are anticipated into Tuesday as a coastal low crosses the northwestern Gulf, also fueling today's rainy weather. - Fair weather but with a chill in the air is anticipated Tuesday and early Wednesday. A light freeze is likely well north of the Houston metro for the next couple of nights, while much of the rest of the area sees lows in the 30s to lower 40s. - Rain chances return Wednesday night and Thursday due to another coastal low and incoming cold front. Much like today, potential for excessive rain causing flooding issues is low, but not quite zero - less than 5 percent. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 323 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 A dreary, soggy day for much of Southeast Texas is beginning to gradually start an improvement this afternoon...though there is very much a strong emphasis on the "gradually" part here. Widespread rains have largely exited the area, instead leaving isolated (west of I-45) to scattered (east of I-45) showers about the area. While rain is starting to draw to a close, the entirety of the area remains socked underneath a curtain of low stratus clouds, keeping temperatures in the 40s to around 50 at Galveston. There is also still some patchy fog about, mainly in the southeastern quarter of our area, but we've mostly transitioned to being largely low clouds over fog. Those rain chances will continue to wind down through the evening, and the overcast sky should begin to break several hours behind it, more in the overnight timeframe. Precisely how quickly this happens is likely to have very big impacts on how chilly we get tonight. For Houston's urban core and generally coastward of I-10, clouds will hang on the longest, and so while we're still looking at a chilly night given we're still only in the 40s to around 50, forecast lows here stay up in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. The farther north you go, the better chance you have at getting some clearer sky to help shed what degrees we do have. A light freeze is all but certain across large swaths of Houston County, our northernmost county in the area on our way to low temps just below 30 degrees. But even here, the number of hours below freezing isn't terribly long - looking to be just in the 2-4 hour range. NBM probability of freezing temps is - perhaps unsurprisingly - nearly 100 percent for Crockett and 90 percent or higher for most all of Houston County. This does drop off pretty rapidly as you head south, though. Caldwell's probability is 18 percent, Livingston's is 27 percent. Huntsville is only 9 percent! Now, again this is NBM probability and not a true probability, but it should get us something in the ballpark, and pretty solidly shows the trend that sub-freezing temps look very likely to be locked up in the north. Tuesday through Wednesday morning will give us a short respite from the unsettled weather and some more sun, albeit not enough to warm us up *all* that much. Tuesday should get up into the 50s for most all of the area, and Wednesday looks to sneak back mostly into the 60s, and not that far short of seasonal averages. Tuesday night does look chilly with enough open sky and lighter winds. But those winds will also be turning back onshore, so I don't anticipate Tuesday night being any colder than tonight, likely even a touch warmer. That near 100 percent NBM probability of freezing temps at Crockett tonight? Already down to 78 percent for Tuesday night. Now, yes, once onshore flow is re-established, we're going to begin another rapid run through the cycle of unsettled weather this week. For Wednesday night and Thursday another shortwave trough ripples through the upper atmosphere, while another weak coastal low spins up and traverses the NW Gulf. All in all, it looks very much like a repeat of what we're seeing today down to the rough track of the low and level of precipitable water we reach. So another round of numerous to widespread showers with a few storms, concentrated more to the coast and Gulf than inland. Heavy rain/flooding potential will be greater than zero, but generally low, less than 5 percent. The chance for rain looks to linger into Friday, but this could be nice as it sets us up for some fair weather for the weekend. Perhaps one key difference from the current situation is that the post-frontal airmass on this late week system is more Pacific in origin, so while we'll cool back down again after warming up through Wednesday, we shouldn't be any colder than tonight/Tuesday night, and quite likely a little bit warmer, with low temps bottoming out more in the upper 30s and 40s, while the chilliest afternoon on Friday looks to be in the 50s across the area. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 529 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 Poor flying conditions are expected today as rainfall develops across the region. Heavy downpours are a possibility at times from the metro area to the coast which could cause some reduced visibility. Low end MVFR ceilings early this morning will likely drop into IFR territory by mid morning with increasing rain coverage. Cannot rule out LIFR at times near pockets of heavier downpours (esp Hobby, Angleton, Galveston). Rain tapers off early-mid evening followed by lifting ceilings from NW to SE. Would anticipate most terminals be back to VFR by 9z or so. Mclr skies anticipated Tue. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 323 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 Marine conditions are currently in a relative state of improvement on the coastal waters, though the emphasis here is very much on the word relative. Winds and seas are still high enough that small craft need to exercise caution on the nearshore Gulf waters, and a small craft advisory remains in effect on the offshore Gulf waters. Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms are also still occurring, mainly over the upper coastal waters - Galveston Bay and adjacent portions of the Gulf out 60 nm and beyond into the open Gulf. This evening, look for winds to become more northerly and increase again to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots as the coastal low moves off to the east. The Small Craft Advisory on the offshore waters expands back to include all coastal waters through tonight and into early Tuesday morning before winds and seas begin to subside. Advisory-level conditions are expected to continue on the Gulf waters through the morning while winds remain above 20 knots, and on the offshore 20-60 nm Gulf waters into the early afternoon before seas there are finally expected to fall below 7 feet. Despite a short respite Tuesday through Wednesday morning, the unsettled weather pattern will mean another bout with rain, storms, and potentially even periods of sea fog later in the week as we deal with another coastal low and frontal passage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 34 54 38 61 / 40 0 0 20 Houston (IAH) 38 56 41 65 / 70 0 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 45 59 52 70 / 70 0 0 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday for GMZ350-355. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchs AVIATION...47 MARINE...Luchs