FXUS64 KHGX 271725
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1225 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers possible again on Wednesday. Better chances
  generally west of I-45. 

- Slightly drier air briefly moves in from the east on Thursday.

- Scattered rain chances return Friday through the weekend as
  moisture levels increase and some upper level disturbances pass
  through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Though very light in terms of accumulations, precip coverage has 
overperformed today. A similar type pattern will remain in place 
on Wed with higher PW air situated across southern and western 
parts of the region and some weak upper disturbances in the 
vicinity. Precip should mostly wane later today and this evening. 
Deterministic guidance and CAMs depict additional scattered 
activity redeveloping near the Matagorda Bay area up to the Brazos
Valley Wed morning. Will add some lowish POPs back to around the 
I-45 corridor out of respect for the wetter ECMWF and any 
surprises other guidance might not be picking up on like today.

We should briefly see some recycled drier air filter into the 
region from the east on Thursday so will lower/remove POPs then, 
but start bringing them back into the forecast Friday and into the
weekend. This is when we should see the higher PW air return, 
llvl ridging weakening a bit, and some shortwave activity embedded
in the swly flow aloft track newd out of Mexico and across Texas 
into the Southern Plains. Things don't look like a complete 
washout, but there will likely be decent amount of scattered 
activity around (esp Saturday). Assuming there's not a stronger 
vort/disturbance/forcing mechanism around, this looks mainly
diurnally driven. The evening trick-or-treating forecast looks ok
for most of the area at this point. 

A more potent mid-upper trof digs swd into the scntl CONUS early
next week. We may need to eventually keep an eye out for the 
potential for some strong storms in the vicinity late Monday or 
early Tue depending on how the finer details evolve. As this 
system passes, a cold frontal passage should quickly follow. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Radar shows scattered showers mainly along and south of I-10. Some 
showers may produce very isolated heavier downpours, which could 
briefly reduce visibility. Shower activity looks to remain through 
the afternoon, tapering off this evening. ESE winds prevail and 
become light and variable overnight. Tomorrow morning, there is a 
chance for MVFR/IFR CIGS for the western portion of the region. CIGs 
lift back to VFR and winds pick up out of the ESE/SE late tomorrow 
morning. 

MLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A long easterly fetch situated across the northern Gulf will 
maintain 3 to 4 foot seas for much of the week. Some isolated to 
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible at times as weak 
disturbances pass through. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  63  83  64  84 /   0  30  10  10 
Houston (IAH)			  67  84  65  85 /  10  20   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)			  73  80  71  80 /  10  10   0   0 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...47