FXUS64 KHGX 031757 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1257 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Flood Watch remains in effect for parts of southeast TX through 7 pm this evening. - Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon will primarily be concentrated west of I-45. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be the main threat. - Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible on a daily basis into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026 The surface remnants of Edouard continue to slowly track westward across North Texas this afternoon with low level features now largely absorbed into the mean flow. Moderate to heavy precipitation continues to be closely tied to the mid level vorticity maximum which is centered near the Leon/Robertson County area based on GRK radar data and latest satellite imagery. A notable warming of cloud tops has been observed over the last hour and precipitation rates have come down significantly. It appears that the remnant mid level circulation may be entraining some drier air from its periphery which is resulting in some low level cooling in areas of precipitation. This has generated a fairly tight gradient in theta-e extending from just south of the circulation toward Galveston Bay. A narrow band of strong low level convergence has set up along this boundary of stronger early afternoon heating where MLCAPE is >2500J/kg. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed right along this boundary from near Rosenberg northward through the west side of Houston and becoming more concentrated near Conroe. Locally intense rainfall rates can be expected in this band of showers and thunderstorms given PW values still between 2.2-2.4 inches. In addition, we can't rule out an isolated severe wind gust with the strongest storms. This area of convective development should shift south and west through the rest of the afternoon and evening aided by weak ascent from the mid level circulation and is supported by the latest CAM guidance. Fortunately, most of these areas missed out on the heaviest rainfall from Edouard, so any instances of flash flooding should be fairly localized. We'll have the highest PoPs generally west of I-45 through the rest of the afternoon and evening with coverage decreasing during the late evening hours. The mid level circulation will linger through the day Friday with a southwest motion as upper ridging tries to expand across the Southern Plains. While the model guidance has quite a spread in rain chances tomorrow, we should see a decent coverage of afternoon showers and storms along the sea breeze given the proximity of the mid level vorticity maximum and continued high PW values. Moderate instability and weak deep layer wind fields will continue to support slow moving thunderstorms with a locally heavy rainfall threat and isolated gusty wind threat through the late afternoon. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026 A broad weakness in the mid level heights will persist into the weekend across the northwest Gulf and southeast TX. While this doesn't specifically imply that we'll be within a region of ascent, it should keep stronger subsidence in check from ridging to the north. With strong afternoon heating and a continued reservoir of deep moisture in place across the region, we should again see a decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze Saturday afternoon where we'll have 40-60% PoPs. No meaningful change in the upper pattern is really expected into next week with southeast TX remaining beneath deep southeast to east flow through 500 mb and the stronger ridge axis remaining displaced to our north. This will continue to support daily afternoon storm chances through the middle of next week. High temperatures will generally range from the low to mid 90s with farther inland areas and the Brazos Valley possibly getting into the upper 90s early next week. Dunn && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026 Significant TSRA is being monitored along a boundary stretching from CXO south toward SGR. TEMPOs including MVFR cigs/vis, gusty winds, and TSRA during the 18z to 23z period have been written. Beyond 23Z, winds are generally expected to become calm and VRB overnight. Early next morning during the 11z to 14z period, models are signaling a potential for MVFR to IFR cig/vis for the northernmost TAF sites. There is notable spatial uncertainty in terms of how far these cig/vis will spread, so trends will continue to be monitored. Moving into the morning and early afternoon Friday, models are suggesting a potential for SH with TS for IAH/HOU and the southern TAF sites. VCSH was included at the end of those TAFs to hint at this trend and take into account current model uncertainty. JMG && .MARINE... Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026 Light to moderate onshore winds and 2-3 ft seas will prevail through the end of the week and into the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible near any strong storms. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 93 74 94 / 30 30 10 20 Houston (IAH) 78 93 77 93 / 20 50 10 50 Galveston (GLS) 83 90 82 90 / 30 30 40 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 196-198>200-300. GM...None. && $$