FXUS64 KHGX 132302 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 602 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scatter to Widespread showers/storms early this week. Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall today and Tuesday. Ponding on roadways and street flooding will be possible. - Hot weather returns during the second half of the week with highs in the upper 80s/90s and heat indicies in the 90s/triple digits. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1112 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Southeast Texas remains engulfed within a deep tropical airmass today with satellite derived PWs around 2.0-2.2 inches. A robust ridge is currently situated over the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi River Valley, though a trough over the SE CONUS is anticipated to undercut it, pushing southwesterly towards our area. This features is progged to push a slow moving frontal boundary into southeast Texas later today, eventually stalling out. Forcing from the front, in addition to midlevel PVA from the trough, will continue to bring scattered to widespread showers/storms through the early evening. The general pattern across CAMs depict another round of convection pushing in from the north along the aforementioned frontal boundary. This cluster is progged to eventually collide with the activity already ongoing over SE Texas, likely outputting higher rainfall rates wherever it occurs. Regardless, the environment is already primed for high precipitation efficiency, and thus locally heavy rainfall may occur as a result. A lull in rains is expected to develop this evening as daytime heating and instability wanes. Some drier air filters in aloft, generally above 400mb, but otherwise mid/low level RH remains very moist with PWs still around/over 2.0 inches for Tuesday. With the stalled frontal boundary and trough still draped over SE Texas, the heavy rainfall threat should continue with scattered/widespread storms expected throughout the daytime hours on Tuesday. Storms should taper off into the evening again, much like the day before. WPC has southeast Texas largely under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of Excessive rainfall for today and Tuesday. Rainfall totals through Tuesday night are expected to be around 1-3" but locally higher amounts could reach 3-7" in spots. Ponding on roadways and street flooding could occur, especially in urban/low lying areas with poor drainage. If you encounter flood waters, turn around! The heavy rainfall threat decreases into Wednesday as forcing & instability are reduced. Rain chances will taper off during the second half of the work week as ridging builds overhead. Conditions then gradually heat up in the days following with highs reaching the upper 80s/90s with heat indices in the 90s/triple digits. Rain chances are currently slim, though some very isolated streamer showers could develop during the overnight/early morning hours. 03 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 602 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Lingering showers with a couple of isolated thunderstorms continue to prevail around the region, but expect activity to gradually dissipate over the next few hours with a dry period expected late this evening into early Tuesday morning. MVFR to IFR ceilings are anticipated to develop over terminals north of and including IAH. This coincides with the onset of developing showers early Tuesday morning. Additional convection is expected to develop around sunrise and is expected to be scattered to widespread. The TEMPOs cover the highest confidence window for convective impacts, but impacts are likely to persist into the early afternoon hours. Reduced ceilings/visibilities and gusty winds will be possible in any of the stronger storms. Convective activity is expected to subside in the mid to late afternoon with widespread VFR conditions returning across the region. Winds will be light and variable overnight then becoming light and easterly to southeasterly in the daytime hours. Wind speeds generally remain less than 10 kt outside of any storms. Batiste/Wingo && .MARINE... Issued at 1112 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 S to SE winds around 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected throughout the week. Round of showers and thunderstorms are expected through mid week, generally during the daytime hours. Some occasional strong storms could produce locally higher winds, seas and reduced visibility from heavy rainfall. Rain chances decrease Wednesday and taper off into Thursday, though very isolated streamer showers will remain possible during the overnight and early morning hours. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 83 72 86 / 70 90 40 70 Houston (IAH) 74 83 75 88 / 60 80 30 70 Galveston (GLS) 80 88 83 89 / 50 80 30 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...03