FXUS64 KHGX 121139 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 539 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming up today into this weekend with lights showers possible. - Patches to Areas of fog/sea fog possible today through Saturday ahead of a cold front. - Cold front moves off the coast on Sunday with cooler weather into next week. Freezing temps possible early Monday morning over the north/northeastern cwa. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1202 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Southerly flow and WAA will keep the warming trend in place for today and portions of the weekend. Highs during this period will reach the upper 60s/mid 70s, though early morning lows will still lean on the cool side in the mid 40s/lower 60s. A few light showers could develop during this period, mainly near the coast due to a combination of WAA and a passing midlevel shortwave. More notably, we may see some periods of sea fog develop over the bays/nearshore waters, along with radiation fog inland during the overnight/early morning hours. Current marine obs show 60s dewpoints at KGLS, ahead of some CAMs, which anticipate that this deeper moisture will reach the upper bays later this morning. With this, we'll certainly have a modest chance for patches/areas of sea fog this morning over the bays/nearshore waters. Inland fog is already developing over Victoria this morning, and those areas of fog will likely expand into SE Texas later this morning. Coverage will be greatest west of I-45, which is most likely to see a dense fog advisory. Fog should burn off during the day inland, though we could see some hazy conditions looming over the nearshore waters/Galveston bay this afternoon. Tonight into Saturday morning has the strongest signal for sea fog across the bays/nearshore waters in the forecast, so mariners may see some of the worst impacts from sea fog during this period. Saturday night into the early morning hours of Sunday will also be a particularly interesting time frame to watch with respect to sea fog as well, due to pooling moisture and easing winds leading up to a cold front. The cold front is still slated to push off the coast Sunday morning, so there will be plenty of time for fog to develop prior to it's arrival earlier in the morning. Though, rising water temperatures and mixing from showers may limit the extent of sea fog by that point. Ensemble fog probabilities are lower, which seem to reflect this idea, though again I wouldn't rule out the possibility for areas of dense fog Saturday night into early Sunday. Sunday should see cooler and drier weather in the wake of the cold front. Monday remains the coldest period in the forecast with temperatures early in the morning dropping into the upper 20s/30s to lower 40s near the coast. A few more spots over SE Texas could see their first freeze of the season as well. During the daytime, highs for Monday should top out in the 50s/lower 60s. High pressure moves off the east and once again we get onshore flow Monday afternoon with WAA and moisture advection in full swing again by Tuesday. Rain chances return for Tuesday and increase through mid next week. We'll also need to watch out for sea fog along the coast Wednesday and onwards, though the extent will depend on how much water temperatures cool with the next front and warm thereafter. 03 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 528 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Widespread LIFR to IFR conditions are being seeing this morning as dense fog blankets the area bringing visibilites down to 1/2mi or less. Improvements are expected through the morning with MVFR conditions expected by 9-10am with CIGs around 1500ft, and then further improvements to VFR conditions this afternoon. However, dense fog will return tonight bringing a return of IFR/LIFR conditions returning around midnight that will persist into Saturday morning. Light southeasterly winds will prevail through the period. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Winds have shifted onshore, enabling moisture return now into the weekend. We'll have to keep an eye out for sea fog across the nearshore waters and bays this morning. Some hazy conditions may linger in the bays/nearshore waters during the day. Tonight into Saturday morning is the current time frame where sea fog conditions are most optimal, though water temperatures warming just a tad could inhibit sea fog development. If water temperatures are very slow to recover, the worst of the sea fog may extend through Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Small Craft Advisories are likely on Sunday behind the front. Winds and seas decrease on Monday with winds shifting onshore early on Tuesday. By Wednesday, we'll have to once again keep and eye out for sea fog over the nearshore bays & gulf waters. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 72 59 74 51 / 0 10 10 20 Houston (IAH) 74 61 75 57 / 0 10 30 30 Galveston (GLS) 71 63 70 58 / 10 20 30 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ163-176- 177-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...03