FXUS64 KHGX 041111 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 611 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A slow moving cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms into the region. A few heavier thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. - Much cooler and breezy conditions expected Easter Sunday, with rain showers possibly lingering into the morning and afternoon hours in our southern and coastal counties. - Risk of moderate to strong rip currents today into the weekend. - Gradual warm-up expected second half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 A rather dynamic pattern has set up over central CONUS tonight. As of 11PM, a robust mid/upper low is centered over the Dakotas. Ahead of the low exists a strong southwesterly and diffluent jet aloft, providing the UL divergence to sustain a sfc low over Iowa. The low's trailing cold front extends down the plains into northern Texas. The highly sheared and diffluent flow aloft is inducing deep convection along the frontal boundary. This front will push southward into our region on Saturday, increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms by afternoon (though some scattered activity is expected in the morning). The most favorable dynamics for deep convection will remain north of our region. That being said, the flow aloft will not be short of embedded vort maxes. The lift from these vorticity maxima and the sfc convergence from the front, coupled with high PWATs pooling northward from the Gulf could result in locally heavy showers and thunderstorms. A severe thunderstorm capable of damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Localized flooding will also be a possibility. Therefore, SPC has kept our area in a Level 1 of 5 severe weather threat, while WPC continues to place our region in a Level 1 of 5 excessive rainfall risk. Regarding timing, the best chance of heavier showers and thunderstorms is during the afternoon hours across our northern counties, while areas farther south experience their highest thunderstorm risk late in the afternoon and into the evening. Easter Sunday is unfortunately a tricky forecast. The front is expected to push southward towards the coast and eventually offshore. But lingering shower activity could extend into Easter, especially south of I-10. Relative to our last update, I gave PoPs a little bit of boost for areas south of I-10 on Sunday. This is mostly due to the continued parade of vort maxes providing lift to the Southeast Texas atmosphere. The other tricky aspect about Sunday is the temperatures. With enough clouds and CAA, I could see temperatures being 5-10 degrees colder in some areas. For now, I'm going with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to near 70. Monday is looking mostly dry with highs in the 70s. But we cannot rule out lingering showers near the coast and offshore. As for the longer range, a strong Canadian high pressure system will dig southward over E CONUS by Tuesday and Wednesday. Sometimes you have to watch for overperforming backdoor cold fronts in these situations. But at this time, we are thinking that the high will mostly enhance LL onshore flow. This will tend to gradually increase temperatures and humidity by the second half of the week. In addition, more pesky vorticity maxima may add lift to the equation by week's end. Therefore, rain chances begin to increase again by Thursday and especially Friday. Self && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 611 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Generally MVFR ceilings, with some intermittent IFR, across the region this morning along with some isolated showers dispersed. Ceilings will gradually lift as the morning progresses and become mostly VFR for a while. Shower & thunderstorm chances ramp up this afternoon along and south of a cold front that'll move into northern parts of SE TX early in the afternoon, the metro area early evening, then eventually off the coast. Some embedded cells within the band of precipitation could be on the strong side...with stronger wind gusts and visibility restrictions in heavy downpours the main concern. Behind the front, look for increasing N/NE winds and lowering ceilings (700-1000ft) as llvl moisture becomes trapped near/below the frontal inversion. They should eventually lift across northern parts of SE TX as cooler air deepens, but metro/coastal areas might see higher end IFR-low end MVFR for much of the night. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026 Moderate southeast flow and enhanced southeasterly swell/waves should decrease somewhat as a cold front approaches today. Scattered shower activity is possible today, with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening through Sunday as the front pushes offshore. Winds will increase from the north to northeast on Sunday, remaining elevated through Monday. Sustained winds over 20 knots with gusts up to around 30 knots are expected, especially over the Gulf. Seas will likely build as a result, easily reaching 4-6 feet nearshore and 6-9 feet offshore. Seas may be higher at times. The prospect of offshore thunderstorms complicates Sunday's winds forecast. Thunderstorms can result in higher winds that extend far from the parent storm. Showers and storms may linger into Monday. Winds weaken and veer east by Tuesday, before veering southeast by Wednesday. Southeasterly flow is expected to increase later in the week. This would likely be accompanied by corresponding increases in the swell. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 54 67 51 / 90 40 10 10 Houston (IAH) 83 60 69 56 / 80 70 40 10 Galveston (GLS) 78 65 71 61 / 50 70 50 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...47 MARINE...Self