FXUS64 KHGX 090530 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1230 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through Mother's Day weekend, including after midnight tonight into early Saturday morning and likely after sunset on Sunday. - Additional rainfall totals of at least 0.5 to 1.5 inches (with locally higher amounts) are likely through the end of the day on Sunday. - Mostly drier and warmer weather is expected through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026 The atmosphere over southeast Texas remains persistently moist thanks to mid-level troughing that continues eastward, funneling/injecting more vorticity into southwesterly flow as anticipated on satellite imagery across West Texas. This is evident from nearby 00Z soundings with PWAT values ranging well above the 75th percentile at 1.75-2 inches. While the lift to instigate more convection remains more scarce across southeast Texas (especially compared to north Texas), a new round of convection developing over the Red River Valley is expected to proceed southward and introduce a chance of precipitation across Piney Woods zones in the early morning hours on Saturday. Forecast uncertainty has been elevated in this synoptic pattern thanks to the mesoscale nature of disturbances and weaker forcing. Drier antecedent soils and somewhat drier precipitation trends will boost 1 and 3-hour flash flood guidance thresholds, leaving the best chances of any flash flooding further east of the I-45 corridor through the day on Saturday. Additional parameters still favor the chance of severe thunderstorm development (mainly elevated mid-level lapse rates near 7 J/kg) for a threat of large hail with any convection that can become robust enough. Sunday's frontal boundary will provide the long-missing lift necessary for another round of convection (some of which could be severe) carrying the potential for damaging winds and large hail. This round of stronger storms is expected to enter southeast Texas later on Mother's Day (well after sunset) and clear the area by Monday morning, leaving a lower chance of rain for any daytime plans. By the beginning of next workweek, a reprieve arrives in the form of cooler temperature maximums/minimums (upper 80s/mid 60s, respectively). Medium-range guidance suggests ridging gradually displacing northwesterly flow aloft through the week as it exits the Intermountain West, keeping mostly dry conditions in place areawide. Temperatures will respond in kind by the end of the week, nearing the 90-degree mark in some areas. Cassel && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026 Late this afternoon, only a couple of showers are present east of all of the terminals. MVFR to IFR ceilings remain in place for most terminals, but expect IFR ceilings to become widespread overnight. Model guidance indicates fairly good potential for LIFR ceilings between 09Z-15Z/Saturday. Cannot entirely rule out visibilities decreasing to less than 1-2SM during this timeframe as well due to fog. This timing also coincides with the first round of showers moving in from the north. Model guidance remains a bit uncertain on the exact timing and placement, but the highest confidence window for rainfall looks to be in the 10Z-15Z timeframe Saturday morning for terminals near and north of I-10. Ceilings will take a while to lift...only becoming MVFR by around 17Z then VFR around 19Z-20Z. Another round of showers looks to develop in the mid to late afternoon as well (after 20Z), mainly near and south of I-10. This portion of the forecast is a bit more uncertain, but we cannot rule out some embedded thunderstorms in both the early morning convection and the mid to late afternoon convection. Winds will remain light and variable throughout most of the forecast period. For terminals near and south of I-10, east- southeasterly winds will become prevalent around 5-8 kt on Saturday afternoon. Ceilings look to trend towards MVFR/IFR late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026 With a warm front remaining just offshore, a 30-50% chance of thunderstorm development will continue through the next 48 hours carrying the threat of locally strong downdrafts. By Sunday night into early Monday morning, another round of thunderstorms will carry an additional chance of strong winds offshore. Post-frontal northerly winds will remain elevated offshore through Monday before returning back onshore by Wednesday. These post-frontal winds are expected to remain below the threshold requiring issuance of a Small Craft Advisory at this time. Cassel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 69 86 67 79 / 0 0 80 10 Houston (IAH) 72 88 71 83 / 0 10 70 10 Galveston (GLS) 76 83 74 84 / 0 0 50 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cassel AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Cassel