FXUS64 KHGX 062320 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 620 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold front pushing through today, bringing scattered showers/storms and cooler conditions in its wake. - Risk of locally heavy rainfall increasing Friday-Saturday. Will need to monitor the risk of localized flooding. - Drier and warmer conditions expected by early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 A cold front is pushing through the CWA today, bringing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms roughly along and behind the frontal axis. Cool, northerly breezes signal a moderate CAA regime in the front's wake. Some of our northern most communities have fallen into the 60s after briefly peaking near 80 just before midday. This front will continue southward, eventually helping to replace the warm, humid 80-85 degree air to its south with a not as humid air mass w/ temps in the 60s and 70s. The thermodynamic profile continues to looked capped as of writing this AFD. But high PWATs coupled with sfc frontal forcings have been enough to spark scattered shower activity across the region. IF we can overcome the cap, then a few thunderstorms could try to take advantage of the highly sheered vertical wind profile, yielding to a few stronger thunderstorms. But the force is strong with the cap, and it may prevent us from seeing any severe weather today. That being said, the radar will warrant our close attention just in case a storm or two decides to get feisty. Meanwhile to our west, we continue to watch a mid/upper low/trough. The system has assumed a positive tilt structure with an axis stretching from the Four Corners region to Baja California. 500MB RAP analysis shows more of trough than a closed low. But ML water vapor imagery suggests a closed low with bountiful vorticity exists near northern Baja California. Guidance has generally trended slower with this system's eastward progression. That has resulted in a downward trend in Thursday's PoPs. Friday continues to look active with scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm activity. But the slower progression of the system also means that Saturday's PoPs have been on the rise. As the low approaches, the mid/upper atmosphere will become increasingly sheared and diffluent. In addition, PWATs will be on the rise, especially near the coast. The aforementioned frontal boundary may pull northward. Despite becoming increasingly diffuse, the boundary may still provide a focal for convergence and additional lift. The risk of locally heavy showers and thunderstorms is increasing during the Friday-Saturday time frame. PWATs at the coast are looking particularly high, especially if the ECMWF, ECMWF ensembles, and AI ECMWF ensembles have anything to say about it (possibly over 2.0 inches). Ensemble mean QPF generally peaks in the 2-3 inch range. But deterministic guidance shows the potential for locally much heavier totals, possibly over 5-6 inches. Could not rule out a severe thunderstorm risk. But the primary concern Friday-Saturday will be locally heavy rainfall. PoPs should lower as the system departs the region Sunday into Monday. A deep trough is expected to dig southward over E CONUS while a ridge builds to our west. The current outlook for early next week features seasonably warm temps, muggy conditions, and decreasing PoPs. But long range guidance does look a bit NW flow pattern 'ish' for next week. So it's probably worth monitoring possible deep convection inducing disturbances in the flow aloft next week given the time of year. Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 MVFR conditions prevailing at most terminals this afternoon due to a mixture of cloud ceilings and haze from the smoke of agricultural burns down in Mexico. A brief period of VFR ceilings is possible for CLL/UTS late this afternoon and early evening behind a frontal boundary, but expect at least MVFR ceilings to fill back in areawide later this evening. As the frontal boundary pushes through (offshore by 04Z), winds will transition to northeasterly generally around 8-12 kt with higher winds along the coast. There is potential for IFR ceilings on Thursday morning mainly between the 11Z-15Z timeframe, but these decreased ceilings could linger longer closer to the coast. IFR ceiling potential decreases after 15Z, but MVFR ceilings are expected to linger at LBX/GLS through the remainder of the TAF period. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are anticipated to return by the afternoon hours. Expecting a return of MVFR ceilings going into Thursday night/Friday morning. Some sporadic light rain showers will be possible on Thursday, especially near and south of I-10. The potential is too low (~20%) to include in any of the TAFs at this time. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026 Low clouds, haze, widely scattered showers, and light to moderate south to southeast flow expected today. A cold front will push offshore this evening into tonight, shifting the winds to a more north to northeast direction. Winds may increase somewhat behind the front, possibly reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria (~20 knots) over the Gulf. Winds should veer back to the east then southeast Friday into the weekend. Isolated showers and storms possible today and Thursday. There's a better chance of more widespread showers and storms on Friday and Saturday. The system departs Sunday into Monday, with possibly another period of enhance north to northeast winds on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 62 74 64 76 / 20 10 40 70 Houston (IAH) 66 78 68 78 / 40 20 30 80 Galveston (GLS) 72 80 74 81 / 20 30 40 80 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Self