FXUS64 KHGX 070509 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1209 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected throughout the week, mainly focused over areas near and south of I-10. - High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s inland and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast through the end of the work week. Isolated spots west of I-45 could see highs in the upper 90s at times. -Rain chances increase towards mid-week as tropical moisture returns to the area .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 We will start to see the wet pattern transition to a slightly drier one as we kick off the work-week and mid-level ridging shifts southward. PWAT values for today will be around 1.8-2.1" (around the 75-90th percentile), so expecting to see convection take advantage of the lingering moisture this afternoon with help from the sea breeze. Showers and storms should have less coverage than the last few days, with most of the activity occurring along the coastal counties. Expect activity to decrease with the loss of daytime heating The aforementioned high pressure will continue to transition southward into Oklahoma Tuesday, building further into Southeast Texas. Consequently, moisture will decrease again slightly as subsident air becomes more prevalent. PWAT values will range from 1.7-2.0 (average to around 90th percentile). This subsident air will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms on the lower side. A few shallow showers and storms could form along the sea breeze during the afternoon. Models continue to show moisture increasing again going into Wednesday as more tropical moisture filters into the area. PWAT values will climb back to around 2.2" (just above 90th percentile). Model soundings show a pretty saturated profile with light winds for Wednesday, so could see some of these showers and storms produce heavy rainfall. We will see this pattern of daily showers and storms continue through the end of the week as a mid- upper level disturbance moves across the NW Gulf and approaches SE Texas. Bailey && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 Winds continue to be near calm through the overnight hrs. This increases the probability of BR in low lying terminals, like CXO, bringing conditions down to TEMPO MVFR/IFR through sunrise. UTS having VRB winds still brings the chance for BR, with MVFR-IFR conditions not expected. The sea breezes arrival does bring a low chance for TS/SH along the coastal terminals of LBX/GLS, but timing and coverage lack consensus, so have continued with PROB30. Once the sun comes up VFR conditions are expected with a SSE 5-10kt breeze prevailing outside of any afternoon convection. CMW && .MARINE... Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 Light winds and seas of 2 feet or less are expected over the next several days. A drier airmass is expected over the next couple of days, which will result in less coverage for showers and thunderstorms. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase towards the middle of the week and continue into the latter part of the week as tropical moisture returns and a mid-upper level disturbance moves through. Bailey && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 95 77 95 76 / 10 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 94 79 95 79 / 20 0 30 10 Galveston (GLS) 91 83 91 83 / 20 10 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bailey AVIATION...CMW MARINE...Bailey