FXUS64 KHGX 122252
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
552 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm weather expected throughout the work week. 

- Persistent southeasterly flow will lead to a steady climb in 
  humidity, temperatures and cloud cover (mainly overnight), 
  eventually for some spotty/isolated, diurnally-driven 
  showers/storms trough the weekend. Best rain and storm chances 
  arrive next Monday. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Fair weather remains the primary story for Southeast TX as a mid-
level ridge centered over the Southern Rockies continues to 
dominate the regional pattern. Latest water vapor satellite 
imagery shows a drier airmass filtering into the area; however 
enough low-level moisture remains, with surface dewpoints in the 
60s and low 70s to support a field of scattered fair wx Cumulus 
clouds this afternoon. Calm to light surface winds and residual 
low-level moisture will be enough to produce some fog (mainly low-
lying fog) overnight into early Wednesday morning. Latest model 
runs show medium probabilities (30 - 50 %) of visibility as low as
5 miles for our southwestern counties. 

Expect the trend of dry, warm days with temperatures slightly 
above normal to persist through the rest of the work-week. 

The synoptic setup begins to shift late Wednesday into Thursday 
as the surface high slides eastward. This transition will 
establish a more persistent and deepened south to southeasterly 
flow, opening the door for a steady influx of Gulf moisture. 
Therefore, expect a gradual climb in afternoon highs, humidity 
levels and overnight cloud cover through the weekend. 

By the weekend, the ridge is forecast to weaken and migrate 
further east, breaking down the subsidence that has kept us dry. 
The weekend is progged to remain relatively dry; however, this 
shifting pattern combined with warm conditions, increasing PWs and
weak disturbances moving through the flow aloft, could lead to a 
few daily spotty/isolated activity.

Looking ahead to early next week, rain and storm chances will be 
on the increase (30 to 60%) as a stronger upper-lvl disturbance 
moves through. 

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 552 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

A weak late afternoon/evening seabreeze is trying to make its way
inland. It probably won't make it too far, but with some higher
dewpoints behind it, I wouldn't be surprised to see some patchy
late night fog development southwest of the metro area. Any fog
should rapidly burn off after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions
and light winds will prevail for the next 30+ hours. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Benign weather conditions with light winds and low seas are 
expected at least through late Thursday as high pressure system 
remains over the region. Typical summer pattern is anticipated 
with southeast winds due to seabreeze in the late afternoon/early 
evening and offshore winds by the landbreeze overnight/early 
mornings. A tighter pressure gradient will lead to moderate winds 
and building seas Friday into the weekend. Next best rain chances 
return early next week. 

JM 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  63  87  66  88 /   0   0   0   0 
Houston (IAH)			  67  89  69  90 /   0   0   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)			  72  84  73  84 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...47
MARINE...JM