FXUS64 KHGX 011814 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 114 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... - Flood Watch in effect through tonight. Showers and thunderstorms expected through this evening. Rainfall heavy at times. A few stronger thunderstorms capable of hail. Thunderstorms capable of strong winds and possible waterspouts near the coast/offshore. - Gale Warning in effect for the Bays and Gulf through midday Saturday. Winds and seas to become very hazardous for mariners. - After a significant cool down this weekend, expect a gradual warm-up during the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026 Waves of precipitation, and some embedded strong storms, will continue moving west-to-east across the region into the late evening hours. Highest rain totals so far have been just north of a Columbus-Kingwood line where a corridor of 3-5" has been observed. This will be the highlighted region to look out for additional heavy rain as it'll be more prone to runoff and cause some potential street flooding issues and watershed rises (see hydro section below). Southern parts of the area will also be prone to some isolated embedded strong-severe cells. Hail will be the primary threat, though some strong winds and waterspouts are possible closer to the coast/offshore. This system should eventually push off to our east into La after about 10pm-midnight CDT. Rain will taper off and be replaced by cool and breezy conditions. Rest of the weekend looks great with lows in the 50s, highs in the 70s, and low RH's. Onshore flow resumes early next week and we'll see a gradual warming/moistening trend. By Wednesday, we should see enough available moisture for some shra/tstm development ahead of our next front which should be pushing into the area in the afternoon and nighttime period. 47 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026 A messy day is expected across SE Texas with persistent IFR to MVFR CIGs (600-1200ft) and periods of showers and thunderstorms throughout this evening. Main coverage of the showers and storms will be north of I-10 through the morning, but expect the area to grow down to the coast by the early afternoon and persist through this evening. There will be west to east propagating rounds of heavier rainfall/storms every couple of hours through the day, so have predominately -SHRA VCTS with TEMPOs of TSRA for most TAF sites. Expect visibility reductions to 1-2mi in heavier storms. Activity will end from west to east between 01-04z this evening, but the IFR to MVFR CIGs will persist through Saturday morning. Northeasterly winds will prevail through the day around 10-15kt with gusts to 25kt inland, and then gusts to 30-35kt expected along the coast by the afternoon. The wind gusts inland will end overnight, but the gusty winds will likely stick around at the coast through Saturday morning. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026 Waves of storms will continue moving across the coastal waters between now and about 11pm CDT before moving off to the east. Storms could be strong at times...with high winds, hail, and waterspouts all a possibility in association with the more intense cells. North northeast winds will continue to increase and 30 knot gusts are beginning to be observed early this afternoon. Winds and seas will continue increasing as we head into the evening and overnight and a Gale Warning remains in effect for the upper Texas coastal waters. Sustained winds closer to 30 knots with gusts to or slightly above 40 knots will be possible. Conditions should begin to slowly improve Saturday afternoon and evening. Light to moderate onshore flow returns by late Sunday into Monday. Our next front is penciled in for late Wednesday. 47 && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026 Widespread 1 to 3 inches of rainfall has fallen in the last 12 hours with a swath of 3 to 5 inches observed from northern Colorado County to northern Harris County. Soils are primed as additional waves of showers and thunderstorms will continue to produce rain rates of 1 to 2+ inches per hour through the evening hours. Localized flooding is possible where there is training of cells or short bursts of higher intensity rainfall. As a result, the Flood Watch continues through 4AM tomorrow morning. As far as the rivers go, rises to action stage are forecast but cannot entirely rule out isolated instances of minor flood stage depending on where the most rainfall accumulates. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) and as always do not drive through any flooded roadways. Turn Around, Don't Drown. KLG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 52 73 53 77 / 70 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 55 75 54 79 / 90 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 61 75 66 76 / 90 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ164-176>179-195>200- 210>213-226-227-300-313. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335- 350-355-370-375. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...47