FXUS64 KHGX 301847 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1247 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing temperatures expected for much of the area overnight into Wednesday morning - Hard freeze potential is virtually nil for most of the area. However, there is a low chance (30 percent of less) of a hard freeze in the northernmost reaches of the area - portions of Madison, Houston, Walker, Trinity, and Polk counties. It may be prudent to consider protections against that occurrence for locations in those areas where vulnerability to a hard freeze is a critical concern. - Abnormally low water levels in Galveston Bay will continue through at least late Wednesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1243 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Interestingly enough, HREF and NBM wanted to bring lows for tonight a few degrees higher than what has been forecast. Nonetheless, maintained the current trend of below freezing temperatures for the majority of the area as northerly winds continue to bring in cold dry air. High pressure has cleared out the clouds over SE Texas this afternoon, and this will help to enhance radiational cooling over the area tonight (bigger reason for not buying into the sudden warming trend brought on by HREF/NBM). For now, it looks as though Houston Metro and the coast/barrier islands should stay above freezing. For the few locations that have managed to skate by without a Freeze Watch/Freeze Warning so far this season, have opted to forego any freeze products as these locations hover just above the threshold. For those of you in Madison, Houston, Walker, Trinity, and Polk Counties, it looks as though lows for tonight will stay above the threshold for a hard freeze. Probabilities remain low; however, as mentioned by the overnight forecaster, if you have something that needs protection from a hard freeze, it is best to be prepared anyways. With winds having dropped off significantly compared to yesterday, this should negate the need for any cold weather advisories as temperatures and wind chill values both remain above criteria. We will have a bit of a temperature whiplash by the end of the week as we undergo another warming trend. By the weekend the entire area is anticipated to warm back into the upper 70s to low 80s. Bailey && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 426 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. Mid-level clouds will gradually clear out from north to south throughout the early morning hours leading to clear skies by the late morning. Northerly winds in the 7-10 kt range will persist through the afternoon before becoming light and variable after sunset (around 00Z). Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1243 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Winds and seas continue to diminish, and the Small Craft Advisory has been expired as of noon. On the bays, currents may become strong near the interface of the rivers and the bays during times of low water, which may particularly be an issue on Galveston Bay. Low water will likely persist through at least Tuesday's low tide cycle and potentially deeper into the week. Deeper into the week, light northwest winds on Wednesday will become southwesterly by Wednesday night. This light to moderate onshore flow will continue through Friday. The onshore flow will also boost humidity. While we are beyond any model guidance at this point, the expected environment should make patchy fog possible during the overnight hours Thursday night and Friday night. Winds, though, may ultimately create a situation where fog formation is disrupted. This potential will continue to be evaluated through the week. Bailey/Luchs && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1227 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Winds have decreased today as high pressure settles into the region. While winds may be on their way down, dry conditions will be going nowhere. Very low humidity is virtually certain to persist through Wednesday with minimum relative humidity values dropping into the 20s during the afternoon hours for most of the region. Locations west of the Brazos River will be capable of dropping into the upper teens on Wednesday, boosted by slowly increasing temperatures without a corresponding boost in humidity. The lower winds will mitigate fire weather threats, but it will still be important to consider these dry conditions for fire planning purposes. This will be particularly prudent in areas of dense, fine fuels. Texas A&M Forest Service data shows that in general, near to above normal fuel moisture continues, but grassy areas and other fine fuel beds will be the first to show the influence of a prolonged low humidity stretch. Later in the week, southwesterly winds will finally lead to increasing humidity Thursday and Friday. This will be interrupted by a weak cold front at the end of the week, roughly around Saturday morning. In the wake of this front, drier conditions will filter back in over the weekend. Bailey/Luchs && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 54 31 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 54 33 65 43 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 52 44 61 54 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ335. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bailey AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Bailey/Luchs