FXUS64 KHGX 261834 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1234 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Northern portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods may remain below freezing or very briefly rise above freezing this afternoon. Icy conditions may persist in this region, but extended periods of sunshine should aid in some melting today. - Very cold temperatures expected tonight into Tuesday morning. Any lingering wet surfaces will refreeze again in these conditions. - A gradual warming trend is expected through Thursday. However, a strong cold front is expected to push through late Thursday/early Friday with the potential for another round of hard freezes. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Temperatures this morning were certainly frigid as most locations bottomed out in the mid 10s to mid 20s...and with a northerly breeze it felt even colder than that! The good news is that sunshine is on its way. Current visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover on a gradual decreasing trend from north to south, and most locations will see the sun by the afternoon hours. Even though the temperatures in portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods may remain below freezing (or briefly rise above freezing for an hour or two), plentiful sunshine will help in the sublimation/melting process of the ice. Just keep in mind that even if things melt, if the surfaces remain wet then they'll just refreeze again tonight into Tuesday morning. High temperatures elsewhere will range from the mid 30s to low 40s. We'll have a northerly breeze around 10-15 mph with some gusts near 20 mph through the afternoon which should help in the drying process. Same thing goes for even our southern locations though...a hard freeze tonight will refreeze any lingering wet surfaces. With skies being mostly clear overnight and paired with light winds, we have a good setup for radiational cooling to give us our coldest air temperatures of this event. Expecting low temperatures tonight to range from the low 10s up north to the low 20s around the metro area. That means another widespread hard freeze is in store for us, so it's important that you keep your cold weather safety plans going to stay warm and to protect your loved ones. If you plan on being outdoors overnight or in the morning (especially those waiting outdoors for buses), be sure bundle up in layers to protect yourself from the elements. Pipes may freeze and burst if not properly insulated and protected in these conditions. An Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect for all of Southeast Texas through Tuesday morning. There is one potential caveat to tonight's low temperature forecast...that'll be the introduction of upper level moisture moving in from the west. An embedded shortwave will be on approach straight from the Pacific, but it doesn't look like it'll get close enough to generate upper level clouds till after sunrise. It's worth mentioning though that we'll have upper level speed divergence as a southwest to northeast oriented jet streak just to our east continues to gradually nudge eastward. If those upper level clouds manage to develop early, then that'd inhibit the radiational cooling...but all of the high-res guidance insists that this won't happen. Either way, it's still going to be very cold tonight into Tuesday morning. You'll notice increased cloud cover on Tuesday as the embedded shortwave passes through the region. High temperatures on Tuesday will top out in the low 40s to low 50s. Another freeze is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with a hard freeze (24 degrees or less) for the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods and a light freeze (26-32 degrees) elsewhere. Areas right along the coast will remain above freezing. This gradual "warming" trend continues through midweek as we have high temperatures in the 40s/50s on Wednesday and the 50s/60s on Thursday. Another freeze expected on Wednesday night, but expecting it to be a light freeze for most of the area. On Thursday night, most of us (except far northern locations) get a break from dropping below freezing with lows ranging from the low 30s to low 40s. That break is short-lived though with another strong cold front pushing through late Thursday into early Friday. Onshore flow develops just ahead of this front, which is how a decent chunk of the area will manage to top out near or above 60 degrees. A coastal trough develops out ahead of the front leading to a surge of moisture south of I-10. So, rain chances will be highest along and south of the I- 10 corridor both ahead of and along the frontal boundary itself as it pushes through. Another round of freezing temperatures is likely in the wake of the next front with some potential for a couple of nights with hard freezes (24 degrees or less). Let's take a look at things probabilistically. For Friday night, portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods have a 60-90% probability for a hard freeze. Elsewhere there is generally a 30-50% chance. On Saturday night, there is 60-90% probability for a hard freeze essentially everywhere. It's too early to say that it's a slam dunk for a hard freeze, but this should give you an indication that the potential is fairly high. Long story short, don't put away your heavy jackets or the insulation for your pipes just yet... Batiste && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 515 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 MVFR ceilings to start the morning, but cloud cover will be on a decreasing trend from north to south going into the early afternoon. Northern terminals are clearing out early this morning (~12Z), the Houston metro areas are expected to clear out around 16-18Z, and coastal terminals are expected to clear out around 18-20Z. Breezy northerly winds prevail throughout the day with sustained winds in the 10-15 kt range with 20-25 kt gusts. Winds will trend towards light and variable after sunset and prevail into Tuesday. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1234 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026 Northerly winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt along with 5-7 ft seas will continue through this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf waters through 6pm CST Monday. Winds and seas will continue on a gradual decreasing trend throughout the day. The other main story is the abnormally low water levels. During times of low tide, water levels are expected to decrease to as much as 1 to 2 feet below MLLW. The lowest of those values are expected in the upper bays. Abnormally low water levels may stick around through the end of the work week. Rain chances return late Thursday into early Friday as a strong cold front pushes through. Hazardous winds and seas are expected in the wake of this front, and potentially a continuation of the abnormally low water levels into the weekend. Batiste && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1220 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Record low temperatures: January 26: Houston Intercontinental (IAH): 23 (1943) Houston Hobby (HOU): 24(1940) Galveston (GLS): 25 (1940) Palacios (PSX): 30 (1961) January 27: Houston Intercontinental (IAH): 19 (1897) Houston Hobby (HOU): 18 (1940) Galveston (GLS): 21 (1897) Palacios (PSX): 29 (1976) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 15 42 22 47 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 21 49 30 56 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 33 50 42 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for TXZ163-164- 176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338- 436>439. GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355- 370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Batiste