FXUS64 KHGX 010715 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 215 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Flood Watch in effect through tonight. Showers and thunderstorms expected through this evening. Rainfall heavy at times. A few stronger thunderstorms capable of hail. Thunderstorms capable of strong winds possible near the coast. - Gale Warning in effect for the Bays and Gulf this evening through midday Saturday. Winds and seas to become very hazardous for mariners. - After a significant cool down today and this weekend, expect a gradual warm-up during the first half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026 The long awaited upper low has finally arrived, bringing large scale UL diffluence and strong mid/upper shear. At the surface, a frontal boundary has stalled near the coast. This boundary may nudge northward this afternoon, before crashing southward as moderate to strong CAA pushes into the region from the north. The large scale lift and deep tropical moisture overrunning the cooler sfc air will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall is likely. Rainfall rates in the heaviest showers/thunderstorms are expected to reach 2-3" per hour, which is enough to result in localized flooding. Widespread rainfall totals are expected to be in the 2-4 inch range, with some potential for localized totals up to 5-6 inches. These amounts are likely to result in rises to area rivers and watersheds, with action to minor stage flooding the most likely outcome. In addition, the environment will be favorable for embedded stronger thunderstorms capable of hail. For areas along and south of the front, we could have a damaging wind risk or even a tornado risk today. This is mostly a potential issue for our coastal counties. Temperatures north of the front will remain cool. If the front moves far enough north, then our coastal zones could warm well into the 70s. Meanwhile to the north, temperatures are expected to be in the 60s. Our northern zones could spend much of the day in the 50s. Showers and storms exit the region this evening, yielding to a chilly, breezy night in the 50s (40s northern Piney Woods, around 60 at the coast). Coastal areas are expected to become downright windy. We may need to consider a wind advisory along the coast this evening and tonight, where gusts could approach 40 MPH. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the Gulf waters. The weekend is looking spectacular, with highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s (60s at the beaches). The cool air won't last long. Expect a warm-up during the early half of next week. Temperatures may approach 90 with increasing humidity Tuesday and Wednesday. Cold front may bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday, followed by somewhat lower temps (low 80s for highs) and lower humidity on Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 Expect poor flying conditions for the next 24 hours with periods of SHRA/isolated TSRA, MVFR/IFR ceilings, reduced visibilities, and gusty winds. The cold front has moved through the Houston terminals this afternoon and was currently over KLBX. Expect the front to reach KGLS this evening. Ceilings will lower to IFR/MVFR levels at remaining terminals this evening in the wake of the front. Scattered SHRA will impact KCLL/KUTS/KCXO this evening. The main precip event will begin after 09Z and last until Friday evening. Mesoscale models show two time windows with enhanced convection: 10-15Z Friday and again 19Z Friday-02Z Saturday. Have TEMPO or PROB30s these periods for TSRA, lower visibilities, and wind gusts 25-35 kts. SHRA should gradually diminish after 02Z Saturday. Winds will back to the north and increase late Friday/Friday evening with gusts 20-25 kts likely inland and 30-35 kts for the coastal terminals. 35 && .MARINE... Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026 Periods of rain and thunderstorms expected through this evening. Locally stronger thunderstorms will be capable of hail, gale force winds, and waterspouts. Winds today will generally be northeast 15-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Winds may gusts closer to 35 knots by late afternoon. Winds strengthen overnight, averaging closer to 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots (possibly higher). Bay waters become very rough while nearshore Gulf seas build to 6-9 feet, offshore seas to 9-13 feet. Conditions should gradually improve Saturday. However, Small Craft level winds are likely to continue into the afternoon while Gulf seas should remain above 6 feet well into Saturday evening or night. A light southeasterly flow regime returns by Sunday. Winds become southerly and increase by Tuesday into Wednesday. Cold front brings a chance of showers and storms on Wednesday. Gusty east to northeast winds and building seas are possible in the front's wake on Thursday into Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 62 51 71 50 / 100 60 0 0 Houston (IAH) 67 55 74 53 / 100 70 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 76 61 75 66 / 90 80 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ164-176>179-195>200- 210>213-226-227-300-313. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-350. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ335-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...35 MARINE...Self