FXUS64 KHGX 111144
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot weather and low rain chances expected over the next several
  days.

- Greater heat stress and higher risk of triple digit highs this
  weekend into early next week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Rain chances are only downhill from this point forward as ridging 
slowly builds throughout the Gulf Coast. A few isolated showers and 
possibly a storm or two could develop this afternoon along the sea 
breeze. Wednesday will see rain chances become very sparse to near 
zero for the foreseeable future, save for the occasional passing 
disturbance undercutting the ridge. Speaking of the ridge, it is 
still progged to shift north into the SE CONUS and intensify by the 
weekend. Midlevel heights are forecasted to reach 596-598 dam over 
SE Texas by this point, putting them over the 99th climatological 
percentile (NAEFS). LREF & NBM ensembles suggest greater chances for 
triple digit high temperatures occuring on these days, as well as 
early next week. WBGT Heat stress on the human body is forecasted to 
be high, with some isolated spots peaking at extreme. Highs will be 
in the 90s, breaking triple digits in spots, and heat indicies will 
range from 100-107 at least. Will be closely monitoring the heat 
each day as a result. Chances for heat-related hazard headlines 
still look more favorable this weekend through early next week. 

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

A weak upper level disturbance to the west is producing BKN/OVC 
MVFR to IFR ceilings early this morning, primarily affecting KCLL.
These low ceilings may briefly extend to KUTS and KCXO before all
terminals return to VFR after 15Z. Rain and storm chances remain 
low today; however, isolated activity could develop near KIAH and 
KHOU early this afternoon. A PROB30 for SHRA has been included, 
though VCTS or -TSRA cannot be ruled out. We'll continue to 
monitor and amend as needed. Overall, SSE winds prevail today, 
becoming to 9 - 12 kts with higher gusts late this afternoon. MVFR
to occasional IFR conditions are expected to redevelop to the 
west late tonight, mainly impacting KCLL and KUTS. 

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 2-4 feet are expected 
today through around Wednesday. During the second half of the work 
week, winds and seas will increase slightly, potentially 
warranting caution flags at times.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  97  76  98  77 /  10  20   0   0 
Houston (IAH)			  96  79  97  79 /  20  20  10   0 
Galveston (GLS)			  91  84  91  84 /  20  10  10   0 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...03