FXUS64 KHGX 032328
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather continues through Tuesday.

- Cold front should bring scattered showers/storms Wednesday
  afternoon and evening. Will continue monitoring the potential
  for some isolated strong to severe cells.

- Rain chances are trending upward for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

As high pressure slides further to our east we'll see a gradual
rise in temperatures and RH's early this week. Our next cold front
is forecast to sag into the region during the day on Wednesday.
PW's will have recovered into the 1.7-2.0"range by then. That
along with favorable daytime heating, some mid-upper impulses 
traversing in the swly flow aloft, and northern zones being 
positioned closer to RRQ of the jet...we'll need to be on the 
lookout for some shower/thunderstorm development along/ahead of 
the front as it approaches. Wouldn't be surprised to see an 
isolated strong-severe cell or two north of I-10, but capping 
could be a limitation (in addition to to a less unstable 
environment further south closer to the coast).

This front probably won't make it much more than 50-80 miles off
the coast later Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Winds
will swing back around to the east & southeast on Friday which 
will draw that moisture back inland. 

Rain chances look to be trending back up next weekend with the
approach of a mid/upper trof moving into Texas from northern
Mexico. Advertised POPs in the extended fcst could be underdone 
at times, but it's usually tough to pin down timing/forcing with 
these features this far out and this time of year. Look for some
upward/downward revisions as the week progresses. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Mostly VFR conditions are expected tonight into Mon across the SE
Texas sites. Winds this evening will be S-SE at 5-10 KTS, 
relaxing to around 03-06 KTS overnight through around sunrise. 
Winds will then strengthen to 08-14 KTS for many locations after 
15Z, with gusts of 18-24 KTS on occasion. Winds are expected to 
be around 10 KTS for much of the Mon night period, along with 
BKN/OVC decks.

Cotto 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

South to southeast winds 10 to 20 knots, highest Monday night
through Tuesday night, will prevail into midweek. The next cold 
front, and isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms, is 
forecast to push off the coast late Wednesday night or early 
Thursday morning. This front does not appear to be as strong in
terms of wind speeds compared to the last two. North and northeast
winds behind the front swing back around to the southeast by 
Friday and continue into the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm 
chances also increase this weekend.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)	  57  82  68  85 /   0   0   0  10 
Houston (IAH)			  59  83  69  85 /   0   0   0  10 
Galveston (GLS)			  69  79  74  82 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...47