FXUS64 KHGX 020443 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1043 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog will remain a possibility nightly through the next few nights. - Unseasonably warm weather will continue through this week. - Some scattered rainfall expected midweek, but the potential for widespread rainfall is increasing for the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible during the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1037 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 The first week of March will feel more like mid to late April as southerly flow at the surface and southwesterly flow aloft brings high temperatures in the low to mid-80s for most of the area (with the potential of isolated areas of upper 80s by week's end). Overnight lows will be similarly unseasonably warm with temperatures down into the low to mid 60s through Monday night, and then mid to upper 60s beginning midweek. Patchy, but dense in areas, fog will also be a concern through the next few nights as the southerly winds bring increased moisture to the region. Winds do begin to become breezy by Tuesday night, which combined with increasing cloud cover, should help to inhibit inland fog development. We continue to monitor the nightly sea fog potential, but warming SSTs should also aid in limiting the development. We will have a couple of chances for rain this week in SE Texas. The first chance will be Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front approaches from the northwest, then stalls along the I-35 corridor. While the bulk of the rainfall will stay to the northwest of our area, increasing WAA, passing weak disturbances aloft, and increasing moisture will lead to scattered showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday. This stalled boundary will meander to the north into Thursday morning, so may see some isolated lingering showers in the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods on Thursday morning before the front retreats back to the north. The next chance for rain will be over the weekend as the nearly stalled front makes another push to the southeast. Guidance is trending towards the front making it into SE Texas before stalling again. Some rainfall activity is possible on Friday thanks to daytime heating and shortwave troughs embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft. But, the greatest chances of showers and thunderstorms for our region will begin Saturday as the front moves into and stalls. Exact locations of the heaviest rainfall will ultimately be determined by where exactly the front stalls, which is too far in the future to determine now with confidence. A stalled boundary and passing upper-level disturbances, combined with PWATs rising 1.5- 1.8" is a signal to watch for heavy rainfall. Our area is in drought, so we will be able to handle a few inches of rain before becoming a concern - but it is something our office will monitor in the coming days. This front may meander within SE Texas through at least the start of the following week, so SE Texas will continued rain chances. Fowler && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 549 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 Winds will gradually weaken early this evening, becoming light and variable overnight. While confidence is moderate, another period of MVFR to IFR conditions is possible later tonight due low ceilings and fog. Conditions remain favorable for these restrictions, with low clouds slowly developing from the south- southwest, and fog thickening toward sunrise. Any fog and low ceilings should dissipate/lift by mid Monday morning. Southerly winds around 8 to 10 knots, gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Mostly clear skies will prevail for the rest of the TAF period. JM && .MARINE... Issued at 1037 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 While conditions are gradually becoming more unfavorable for sea fog development (warming SSTs), sea fog will remain a concern through the next couple of nights. Expecting the fog to mainly be patchy in nature, but pockets of dense fog will be possible in the Bays and northern waters during the late night and early morning hours. Otherwise, expect light to occasionally moderate onshore winds to persist through the week. Isolated showers will be possible midweek, but rain chances increase by next weekend as a front stalls near the region. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 59 82 63 86 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 61 82 65 83 / 0 0 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 63 75 65 76 / 0 0 0 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fowler AVIATION...JM MARINE...Fowler