FXUS64 KHGX 070543 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1243 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - After a dry Thursday, forecast confidence continues to increase on a wet start to the weekend with a flash flood threat emerging through Friday into Saturday across southeast Texas. - Areawide rainfall totals of at least 1.5 to 2 inches (with locally higher amounts) are becoming more likely through Saturday. - Drier (and slightly warmer) weather returns by early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026 Active weather will continue for southeast Texas through the rest of the week as a mid-level area of low pressure injects diffluent, southwesterly flow aloft with additional moisture and vorticity through the next 48 to 72 hours. As of 11 PM CDT, the frontal boundary is now entering Galveston Bay and approaching the Upper Texas coastline, advecting some cooler temperature minimums overnight (low 60s north/low 70s near the coast) and also pushing the 70-degree isodrosotherm closer to the shoreline. This frontal boundary is expected to become more stationary through the day on Friday, serving as the near-surface instigator for convection. A synoptic environment of this type will also favor a moistened atmospheric column that will continue to recharge by Thursday night, as southwesterly flow aloft brings PWAT values from near 1.25 inches into the 1.5-1.75 inch range (potentially exceeding the 75-percentile for this time of the year). Medium-range guidance continues to suggest and reinforce forecast confidence in a flash flooding threat due to the efficient rainfall expected from convection. The highest remaining uncertainty remains with the spatiotemporal distribution of convective rounds through Friday and Saturday, however, travelers should prepare to exercise caution (especially in urban areas) throughout this time period. Long-range guidance continues to suggest a drier and warmer period (temperature maximums/minimums in the mid-to-upper 80s/upper 60s) by Sunday into Monday as the next frontal boundary arrives and the area of low pressure finally continues eastward into Louisiana. Post-frontal northwest flow aloft looks to be mostly dry through the middle of the week, however, future chances of precipitation cannot be ruled out later next week as that flow weakens. Cassel && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 MVFR conditions prevailing at most terminals this afternoon due to a mixture of cloud ceilings and haze from the smoke of agricultural burns down in Mexico. A brief period of VFR ceilings is possible for CLL/UTS late this afternoon and early evening behind a frontal boundary, but expect at least MVFR ceilings to fill back in areawide later this evening. As the frontal boundary pushes through (offshore by 04Z), winds will transition to northeasterly generally around 8-12 kt with higher winds along the coast. There is potential for IFR ceilings on Thursday morning mainly between the 11Z-15Z timeframe, but these decreased ceilings could linger longer closer to the coast. IFR ceiling potential decreases after 15Z, but MVFR ceilings are expected to linger at LBX/GLS through the remainder of the TAF period. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are anticipated to return by the afternoon hours. Expecting a return of MVFR ceilings going into Thursday night/Friday morning. Some sporadic light rain showers will be possible on Thursday, especially near and south of I-10. The potential is too low (~20%) to include in any of the TAFs at this time. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026 As of 11 PM CDT, Wednesday's frontal boundary has now entered Galveston Bay and will move offshore in the next few hours of the early morning on Thursday. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms (now at a 40-50% chance of development) is expected by Friday into Saturday. Post-frontal northerly to northeasterly winds are expected to remain below the threshold requiring issuance of a Small Craft Advisory, however, wind speeds could still exceed 20 kts. overnight Thursday further offshore into the Gulf. Long-range guidance suggests another chance of somewhat elevated post-frontal winds offshore by Monday. Cassel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 64 76 67 / 0 10 60 70 Houston (IAH) 79 68 78 70 / 0 10 60 80 Galveston (GLS) 80 74 81 75 / 10 10 50 70 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cassel AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Cassel