FXUS64 KHGX 010548 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1248 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Tropical Storm Edouard is expected to move ashore near the TX/LA border this afternoon. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Chambers County, the Bolivar Peninsula, and the adjacent Gulf waters. - The primary threat is heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch is in effect from 1AM Tuesday thru 7AM Wednesday. Highest risk of heavy rain is along and east of I-45, but could fluctuate depending on the eventual track of the low. - Increasing risk of additional heavy shower and thunderstorm activity on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 The National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Depression 5 to Tropical Storm Edouard Monday evening. The storm has become better organized in terms of its general structure, with an evident increase in curved banding on both radar and satellite. The circulation is very small, making the system's intensity very sensitive to its surrounding environment. Conditions are generally favorable, opening the door to potential quick strengthening before it moves ashore in the vicinity of Sabine this afternoon. The system has a healthy outflow structure and TPW appears abundant. And yet, the system has struggled to maintain persistent convection, with a convective cycle that matches diurnal processes as opposed to purely tropical cyclone processes. Hurricane Hunter data has shown that the central pressure has dropped from about 1014MB last night to 1004MB tonight. So we are experiencing some deepening of the surface low. The only deep convection that we have as of 11:30 PM CDT is over the Louisiana Coast, where a moderately heavy rainband is producing wind gusts near 35 MPH. Southern half of the system is currently void of deep convection, though Hurricane Hunter dropsondes indicate a moist vertical profile in that region. Landfall is expected near the Texas/Louisiana border this afternoon as a 60 MPH tropical storm, though it must be stressed again that these small system's intensity trends can be very erratic, prone to quick spin-ups and weakening trends. For us in southeast Texas, the primary concern is going to be rainfall, especially where heavy rainbands setup and near where the center of the storm tracks. The highest risk of heavy rainfall is roughly along and to the east of I-45 today. But areas to the west should monitor the situation closely as well. The Weather Prediction Center has placed most of the region in a Level 2 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall capable of flash flooding. This rainfall may end up being largely beneficial. But locally heavy rainfall totals of 6-9"+ are possible, which is why much of the eastern half of our region is under a Flood Watch through Wednesday morning. The time frame of concern begins this morning in our southeast coastal counties, and goes into the afternoon, evening, and overnight for the inland areas of the watch. Tropical storm force gusts will be easily accomplished near the center track and within heavy rainbands, especially as you get closer to the coast. The highest risk of damaging wind gusts is technically just outside our CWA, near the TX/LA border. But if the system can manage to spin-up quickly and move ashore a little farther west than predicted, then that would bring some stronger winds into Chambers and potentially southern Liberty counties. As the system pushes inland on Tuesday, it's circulation will weaken and broaden, resulting in an "unwinding" of the banding features as we head into Wednesday. A remnant surface low may be in place to our north on Wednesday along with lingering banding features and very high PWATs. ECMWF / GFS (AI and non-AI) ensemble means showing an envelope of 2.0-2.5 inch PWATs over our region, while deterministic guidance suggest values could be locally even higher. Depending on how well the low holds together, it may help to enhance a veering LL vertical wind profile and add a little shear to the LL environment as well. In addition, we'll transition from the lower CAPE inner tropical cyclone environment to a more unstable outer rainband-like environment. Therefore, the environment may favor deep convection in the form of a feeder band that could result in heavy training showers/thunderstorms. Enough complexities exist in the forecast to make it difficult to pin point exactly where banding features will set up. The environment as predicted by most models tends to favor our northern counties. But I could see deep convection occurring farther south as well. Beyond Wednesday, expect seasonably hot and humid conditions with a continued daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Considering the expected high moisture levels, there may also be a daily risk of locally heavy rainfall that continues into the end of the week. Self && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 Light and VRB winds with VFR conditions blanket the area through the overnight into early morning hrs. Tropical Storm Edouard remains very compact as it approaches the region from the Gulf. As the circulation moves through the winds will back to the N, NW, W, SW before setting back to the SE as night falls. Exact timing will continue to be refined as landfall gets closer. The earliest impacts are first felt over GLS where SH and TS are anticipated to be increasing in coverage between now an sunrise. As the day continues SH and TS will expand first, into the metro, before expanding across the majority of the region throughout the day. Winds should generally be light to moderate at most terminals, but cannot rule out some localized 25-35kt gusts in association with heavier rainbands/storms. Prevailing conditions remain VFR during this period, but pockets of heavier convection can decrease CIGs and conditions to MVFR and maybe some short-lived IFR conditions. Periods of precipitation should persist into Tuesday night for portions of the region. CMW && .MARINE... Issued at 1039 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 Rainbands from Tropical Storm Edouard will push into our eastern waters this morning. Winds are expected to back to a more northerly direction as the system approaches, with winds outside of rainbands expected to average 15 to 25 knots. Within rainbands, winds could easily gust to 30-35 knots. The center of the storm is expected to track just east of our waters, with a landfall near the TX/LA border. But a slightly farther west track could bring a 4-6 hour period of stronger tropical storm force winds in our easternmost waters near Chambers County. Seas are expected to become choppier in our eastern waters, with some potential for seas up to 5 feet offshore of High Island and Bolivar. We cannot rule out an outer rainband as far west as Matagorda. But the primary marine concerns will be in our eastern waters. For the rest of the week, expect light to moderate onshore flow and daily shower / thunderstorm chances. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 101 77 97 75 / 0 10 40 60 Houston (IAH) 98 80 91 78 / 10 20 80 70 Galveston (GLS) 92 81 90 83 / 30 80 80 50 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ214-439. Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ177>179-199-200-213- 214-227-237-238-300-313-337-338-437>439. Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday morning for TXZ438-439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ335. Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ355-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...CMW MARINE...Self