FXUS64 KHGX 100545 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1145 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloudy and cool through Wednesday with some chances of mainly light rain. - Cold front is expected Wednesday night followed by drier cooler weather for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 A mid-upper level ridge will continue to move eastward across Texas through late Tuesday, while a surface coastal trough meanders over the Lower to Mid Texas Coast and the northwestern Gulf waters. Rain chances will taper down overnight with areas along and south of I-10 still expected to have light to occasionally moderate showers and/or drizzle. The low temperatures will be a tad bit cooler tonight, ranging in the lower 50s for the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, the mid to upper 50s over the rest of the inland portions, and the upper 50s to lower 60s along the coast. On Tuesday, isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast, with the higher PoPs focused over areas in and around Matagorda Bay - closest to the influence of the coastal trough. Temperatures will be warmer with highs rising into the lower and mid 70s on Tuesday and generally between the mid 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday night for much of the inland portions. Rain chances persist on Tuesday night as another mid level disturbance moves overhead. Although we could expected additional showers and isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday, the chances are lower as the coastal trough begins to move southeastward just before moving into the Upper Texas Coast. The best chance for rain will continue to be over areas south of I-10, closest to the trough and where the higher moisture amounts reside. Conditions will warm up a little further on Wednesday, as warm moist air from the Gulf converges over Southeast Texas. Look for highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s areawide. There is a signal for a weak front (possibly a backdoor front) moving through sometime Wednesday night or early Thursday along with drier air pushing in from the north and northeast in its wake. Not a whole lot of "cooling" happening on the forecast behind this front other than cooler nights. The highs over the second half of the week remain in the mid to upper 70s but the overnight lows will drop back down into the upper 40s to mid 50s inland for Thursday and Friday night. Rain chances could return sometime late Saturday and Sunday as moisture returns to the area ahead of another mid level trough and surface coastal trough. Cotto && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 The data continues to trend away from widespread sub VFR conditions tonight. Therefore, we removed the MVFR TEMPO groups and opted for low-end VFR prevailing conditions through the overnight. However, we cannot rule out localized MVFR cigs/vis. Additional rounds of -SHRA/ SHRA are expected later this morning and afternoon, primarily from IAH south to the coast. Guidance is suggesting a more robust mid- level disturbance could approach the region from the southwest Tuesday evening. Confidence is relatively low regarding rainfall coverage, but there is some potential for heavier SHRA, and even a TSRA or two, as the system moves through Tuesday evening / night, with the highest probs of SHRA/TSRA being from IAH down to the coast. For now, we only hint at this via VCSH near the end of the TAF period. Self && .MARINE... Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026 Light to moderate east to northeast winds and seas of 1-3 feet are expected through Wednesday. Winds over Matagorda Bay and adjacent waters have been mostly between 15-20 kts with higher gusts. Caution Flags are now in effect for that region through Wednesday afternoon. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through at least late Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move through late Wednesday night or early Tuesday morning, leading to moderate offshore winds and elevated seas of up to 5 feet on Thursday. Caution flags will likely be needed. Winds relax and seas subside Thursday night into Friday. East to southeast winds return during the upcoming weekend along with increasing rain chances ahead of another cold frontal passage. Cotto && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 53 74 57 79 / 20 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 55 77 61 79 / 30 30 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 63 75 67 75 / 20 20 40 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Tuesday afternoon for GMZ330-350-370. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cotto AVIATION...Self MARINE...Cotto