FXUS64 KHGX 052328 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 528 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Weak, dry front pushes through the area early Friday. - Rain chances increase Saturday night and Sunday as the next weather system moves closer to the region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1132 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 A fairly tranquil weather day will be encountered when southeast Texans step outside on this 5th of November. Expect plenty of sunshine, though some clouds are trying to push in from the southwest. Temperatures should skew a tad warmer than normal, likely peaking just above 80 at most spots this afternoon. Overnight temperatures should drop into the 50s and 60s, with patchy fog in a few areas. Could be a few thunderstorms over the Gulf this evening due to an approaching shortwave. The only land areas we need to watch is near Matagorda Bay. For now, most of the activity is expected offshore. A cold front situated over W Texas will push eastward, crossing our CWA early Friday. Current temperatures in the Texas Panhandle are only in the 40s with gusty winds. We don't expect temperatures that cold to reach SE Texas. But we expect a downward trend in temperatures that begins on Friday as a ~1025 MB sfc high builds southward over the plains in the front's wake. The northern half of the CWA is expected to be in the mid/upper 70s on Friday, while areas farther south likely manage one more day up around 80 degrees. The aforementioned high continues its southward drift while the upper level pattern changes over the weekend. A trough is evident over W CONUS. The southern edge of the trough axis features a strong vort max. This vort max is expected to break off, evolving into a more cut-off low structure as it pushes across SW CONUS. By Saturday, we expected this low to be centered over northern Mexico, enhancing an increasingly diffluent and vort max abundant mid/upper jet over Texas. For SE Texas, the pattern aloft may only result in increased clouds on Saturday. But by Sunday, we suspect rainfall chances will increase. Increasing clouds and modest CAA from the southward drifting sfc high should lower afternoon temperatures. Saturday is expected to average in the mid 70s. By Sunday, most locations are forecast to remain in the 60s. Highest rain chances on Sunday are generally west of I-45. However, most of the guidance is showing at least a little shower activity drifting into our eastern zones on Sunday. The cut-off low is expected to push northeastward on Monday- Tuesday, possibly phasing with the polar jet by mid-week, helping to amplify the jet southward over E CONUS during the second half of the week. This may trend the pattern colder across E CONUS. Meanwhile, global deterministic / ensemble / AI guidance suggest another cut-off low or trough could be pushing across SW CONUS during the same time frame. What does this mean for SE TX? The influence of the potential cut-off low / trough may not be felt until the very end of the week. So PoPs for most of next week are low. After another day in the 60s on Monday, we are expected mostly 70s next week with lows in the 40s and 50s. Perhaps the only temperature wild card will be any possible backdoor fronts that could bring some of the colder E CONUS temperatures westward. AI models actually suggest this, but not until after the forecast period. Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 527 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 A very weak front will pass into northern parts of SE Tx after about 6z and near the coast around 12z. May see some patchy, shallow fog develop ahead of it...but mainly over grassy areas outside the metro area. No precip is anticipated with the front. Otherwise, VFR conditions with increasing mid-upper level cloud cover as the day progresses Friday (moreso Fri evening/night). 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1032 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible offshore this evening into tonight. Locally strong winds are possible with any thunderstorm. Otherwise, the primary concern will be increasing NE winds Friday into the weekend along with gradually building seas. Small Craft Advisory level conditions are possible over the Gulf as early as Saturday morning. Winds and seas are expected to peak on Sunday, with seas up to 8-9 feet possible offshore, and closer to 4-6 feet nearshore. Winds remain NE while decreasing on Monday into Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 60 77 58 75 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 61 81 61 76 / 10 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 69 78 66 75 / 10 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...47 MARINE...Self