FXUS64 KHGX 231721 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1221 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong heat dome over the southwestern CONUS will keep conditions dry and temperatures well-above normal over the next several days. - Persistent southerly flow will lead to the development of patchy to areas of fog (some locally dense) and low clouds over the next several nights. - Cooler temperatures are possible over the weekend with the passage of a dry cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 The weather is relatively uneventful and today just so happens to be National Puppy Day (hot dog, hot dog, hot diggity dog!...IYKYK), so let's see how many dog puns we can unleash! Most of you encountered patchy to areas of fog this morning (with some locally dense fog). With onshore flow persisting, additional rounds of fog are pawsible over the next several nights/mornings. A weak frontal boundary will make an attempt at clawing its way into the Brazos Valley/the Piney Woods later today. Guidance has been a bit wishy-washy on exactly where the front will stall. If it manages to push southward enough, then it'll take a bite out of the temperatures with highs in the low 80s expected behind the front. Elsewhere, we're looking at highs in the mid to upper 80s. No 90s as of yet in the early part of the week, but Mother Nature will fetch us even warmer temperatures by the middle to end of the work week. Now let's paws for a moment and discuss tonight's potential backdoor cold front. As surface low pressure in north TX retrogrades northwestward and surface high pressure in the Great Lakes region drifts ever so slightly southeastward, it will nudge a cold front towards us from the northeast. The front may barely nose into portions of the Piney Woods overnight. Either way, it would be the tail-end of the front, so it's certainly nothing to bark at. Low temperatures in the upper 50s are expected overnight in our far northeastern areas, but elsewhere we'll be relegated to sit in the low to mid 60s. A mid-level high (heat dome) currently over in the southwestern CONUS/northern Mexico will gradually strengthen over the next day or two and chase us down as it nudges eastward going into the middle of the work week. We're not anticipating an early preview of the dog days of summer, but we certainly will retrieve some warmer temperatures! High temperatures will rise by a degree or two each day, which means some areas may reach the 90 degree mark towards the middle to latter part of the work week. Friday may be a little ruff as 850mb temperatures rise towards the 99th percentile (NAEFS/GEFS) with predominantly southwesterly to westerly flow aloft. This is why Friday has the highest probability of max temperatures reaching the 90 degree mark...even extending down into western portions of the Houston metro area. I'm not gonna cry wolf again on reaching the 90 degree mark though, so I won't say that it's a lock...but the potential IS there. The mid-level high remains overhead through the remainder of the work week...and over the weekend, so don't expect rain chances anytime soon. There's no need to whine about the warm temperatures lasting furever though! Assuming I don't jinx it this time, there is fairly decent agreement in the ensembles for us to rollover back to seasonal temperatures over the weekend. This is due to the potential passage of a dry cold front late Friday/early Saturday. Now again, it's too early to lock it in (I've been hurt too many times before), but the probability for high temperatures below 80 degrees does jump from 0% on Friday to 40-70% over the weekend...that's definitely something! Until then, we'll be hounded by our dry, warm pattern with daily chances for fog. I want to break this streak of above normal temperatures again, so I'll be rooting for the underdog! I for one would like another treat of cooler temperatures...I'm pawsitive that we'll all be begging for a cold front when the inevitable true summer heat commences. Batiste && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 Seeing conditions ranging from VFR all the way down to LIFR across the area this morning, with a good area of dense fog notable on satellite building in from the west. Expect many terminals to continue seeing IFR to LIFR vis and ceilings until this area of fog begins to burn off after 13z as the sun rises. VFR conditions will return later this morning and last through the remainder of the day with notably less gusty winds than yesterday. Monday night into Tuesday morning may see similar conditions return once again. && .MARINE... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas (1-3 ft) will prevail over the next several days. There will be the daily potential for inland fog to spill into the northern parts of the bays during the overnight to early morning hours through the work week. Conditions will remain dry throughout the week. Monitoring the potential for a cold front pushing offshore heading into the weekend, which would bring a period of elevated offshore winds. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 60 86 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 64 86 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 67 77 67 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...Self MARINE...Batiste