FXUS64 KHGX 121806 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1206 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler, drier weather will prevail for the remainder of the work week following Thursday morning's cold front. - Rain chances return late this weekend as a couple of upper level disturbances push into the region. Locally heavy rainfall possible Sunday. - Another cold front pushes through by Monday morning bringing another period of cooler, drier weather. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1206 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026 Plentiful sunshine and drier air in place as PW values have fallen down into the 0.4-0.5" range (10th percentile: ~0.42") following a cold front that pushed off the coast earlier this morning. High temperatures will top out mostly in the mid 70s this afternoon with light northeasterly winds persisting. There are a few gusts near 20- 25 mph mixing to the surface late this morning into the early afternoon as a decaying LLJ drifts in from the north. Expecting winds aloft to continue to decrease by the mid to late afternoon hours. Clear skies and light winds overnight is a great recipe for max radiational cooling, so expect low temperatures to bottom out mostly in the mid 40s to low 50s. High temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees cooler (low to mid 70s) because an 850mb high will slide in from the west, which will bring ever so slightly cooler temperatures aloft...so no warm air to mix to the surface. Even drier air filters into our eastern areas throughout the day on Friday with dew points likely falling into the 30s Friday night. So, it's not entirely surprising that low temperatures Friday night will also be a few degrees cooler with some low 40s possible in portions of the Piney Woods and mid 40s/low 50s elsewhere. There are some synoptic changes to mention though as we head into Friday. As the upper level trough axis (and embedded upper low) that brought today's cold front gradually pushes eastward through the northeastern CONUS, it will begin to drag in a ridge axis from the west on Friday. For the reasons earlier in the paragraph, we won't see a subsequent warming trend...so it's what's behind this ridge that has our attention. Going into Saturday afternoon, an embedded shortwave trough pushes in from the west. It'll be tough for us to go from near the 10th percentile for moisture availability to a value that would favor heavy rainfall...not impossible, but difficult. There's also drier air in the mid-levels (between 500-800mb) that this increasing moisture and lift would have to battle as well. So, for those reasons, we're only looking at light to maybe moderate rain showers on Saturday afternoon/evening. The best chances for rain would be west of I-45 (closer to the Brazos River). The GFS is still holding onto a Saturday afternoon/evening MCS...and remains the only deterministic model showing that solution so we'll continue to treat it as an outlier. The next upper level disturbance pushes through the Four Corners region on Saturday afternoon leading to surface low pressure development near the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. This is important to note because this places us areas west of I-45 in the warm sector as this low develops further and pushes southeastward. There may be an axis of instability, but uncertainty still remains on where it sets up and also on the timing of the associated frontal boundary pushing through. A morning FROPA would play out differently than an afternoon FROPA. Either way, showers/storms are expected ahead of and along the frontal boundary whenever it pushes through. WPC has outlined all of Southeast Texas in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Sunday. Deterministically (not sure if that's a word, but we'll make it one for now), our forecast calls for 1-2" of rainfall between late Saturday-Monday. I did take a look at some of the latest guidance for rainfall total probabilities though. In yesterday's discussion, I mentioned that there was a 20-30% probability of rainfall amounts greater than 2". The latest guidance has increased this probability to 30-40% areawide...that's a notable jump! For 3+" totals, the probabilities increased from ~10% to 15-20% near and south of I-10. In case you were curious, the probabilities for 4+" are now around 10% right along the coast. I'll reiterate again that even though these probabilities are low...they are still statistically notable, especially since there's an upward trend from yesterday. The cold front pushes offshore by Monday morning, but lingering moisture and lift leads to a potential interesting scenario for Monday. I just realized that the previous sentence may have made a few of you think "is he talking about snow?!" sadly no...nothing frozen (let it go). We're talking about daytime temperatures on Monday that could be the coolest we've seen since mid March! Part of that equation will be gusty northeasterly winds that prevail in the wake of the front throughout the day on Monday. We could see sustained winds flirt with the Wind Advisory threshold along the immediate coast as well. Low-level moisture is also expected to linger throughout the day leaving a blanket of cloud cover throughout the day. Those two factors are hindrances to heating. As a result, high temperatures on Monday are "currently" reflected to range from the upper 50s to low 60s. I say "currently" because these may trend down over the coming days given model trends. There is decent potential that quite a few of us remain below 60 degrees on Monday! Yep we're looking at probabilities again. The probability for high temperatures below 60 degrees for Monday ranges from 70-90% for the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods to 40-50% around the Houston metro area to 15-30% along the coast. The last time that we've recorded a full day below 60 degrees in the city of Houston was on March 16th...how's that for your bonus weather nugget of the day! Cooler and drier weather persists at least into the middle of next week with high temperatures gradually climbing through the 60s and 70s and low temperatures in the 40s/50s. Batiste && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1206 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026 VFR conditions will persist through this TAF cycle. Current N winds of 8-12 kts, with gusts of 15-20 kts for KIAH and sites south of it, will decrease by the evening, becoming calm and VRB. Patchy fog may bring MVFR vis to KSGR during the early morning hours, but current model confidence is too low to include them in this TAF package. Winds expected to remain calm and VRB throughout tomorrow morning. JMG && .MARINE... Issued at 1206 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026 Caution flags remain in effect for Galveston Bay and the Gulf waters through this afternoon as moderate northeasterly winds prevail in the wake of this morning's cold front. Seas in the offshore Gulf waters are likely peaking around 4 ft, but will subside back into the 2-3 ft range as winds relax overnight. Benign marine conditions will follow through Friday night as winds transition to easterly Friday night. A tightening pressure gradient will lead to strengthening easterly winds which will likely necessitate a period of Small Craft Advisories. These moderate to strong winds will transition to southeasterly Saturday night with seas building into the 7-10 ft range Saturday night. Increased winds and seas persist into early next week as a cold front pushes offshore Sunday night/Monday morning. Gusts may exceed 30 kt at times, especially late Sunday through Monday behind the cold front. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are also expected Saturday evening through Monday. We'll also need to monitor water levels during times of high tide over the weekend as model guidance continues to hint at peaks above 3.0 ft MLLW. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 49 75 49 68 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 53 74 51 66 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 61 71 62 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ335-350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...JMG MARINE...Batiste